eBooks by Bob Tisdale

Sales of my ebooks (and tips) allow me to continue my research into human-induced and natural climate change and to continue to blog here at Climate Observations and at WattsUpWithThat?

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Posted in Essays & Books | 25 Comments

Will the Next El Niño Bring an End to the Slowdown in Global Surface Warming?

Numerous scientific papers have reported the hiatus in global surface warming will end with the next El Niño event.  But according to a new paper by Chen and Tung published today online in ScienceMag (link to paper follows), that’s not going to happen because the multidecadal variations in ocean heat sequestration at depth in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans will suppress surface warming for a decade or two more.  Additionally, unlike many other papers of its kind, Chen and Tung (2014) indicate a lessening in ocean heat sequestration to depth (the reverse of what we’re seeing now) was responsible for the accelerated warming during the latter part of the 20th Century.

Looking at Chen and Tung (2014) in a different light, they went looking for Trenberth’s missing heat, and, not surprisingly, they found it in the same ocean heat content reanalysis (ECMWF ORAS-4) used in Balmaseda et al. (2013), which Trenberth co-authored.

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Posted in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Ocean Processes, The Halt In Global Warming, The Pause | 10 Comments

July 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

GISS LOTIThis post provides an update of the data for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature data—GISS through July 2014 and HADCRUT4 and NCDC through June 2014—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature data (RSS and UAH) through July 2014.

The map to the above right shows the July 2014 surface temperature anomalies. Please click on it for a full-sized version. The map is available through the GISS map-making webpage.

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Posted in GISS, HADCRUT4, LOST Update, NCDC, TLT and LOST Updates, TLT Update | 7 Comments

On The Recent Record-High Global Sea Surface Temperatures – The Wheres and Whys

NOAA’s State of the Climate Report for June 2014 included the bullet point under global highlights (my boldface):

For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the highest for June on record and the highest departure from average for any month.

Yikes, it sounds as though it’s a manmade global warming problem.  But we know that’s not true because climate models doubled the warming rate of global sea surface temperatures for the past 3+ decades. So even record highs are much better than the temperatures anticipated by the latest and greatest climate models.  As an advanced warning, NOAA will be making a similar statement for July 2014. Figure 1 See the graphs to the right. (Click for full size.) The red horizontal lines are the July 2014 values. NOAA bases their discussions on the ERSST.v3b-based data (bottom graph).  The satellite-enhanced Reynolds OI.v2 dataset (top graph) serves as a reference. Yup, it’s true. July 2014 global sea surface temperatures are the warmest on record, too.

In this post, we’ll present which ocean basin is showing the elevated sea surface temperature anomalies, and where they’re showing it, and provide what will likely be eventually reported as the reasons for those warm temperatures: strong trade winds and persistent high sea level pressures over eastern Siberia and Alaska.

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Posted in Alarmism, El Nino-La Nina Processes, SST Dataset Info, SST Update | 7 Comments

Recent Hawaiian Tropical Cyclones – Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of the Storm Tracks

Iselle Storm TrackIt never fails.  Hurricanes and tropical cyclones always bring out the manmade global warming alarmists, with their claims of unusually warm sea surface temperatures along the storm tracks.  Of course those fictionally warmed sea surface temperatures were caused by rising CO2 emissions.  We expected and saw that nonsense when Sandy struck the east coast of the U.S. mainland back in 2012. Not unexpectedly, data contradicted the claims.  See the posts here and here.

The same unwarranted alarmist claims magically appeared when the two tropical cyclones (Iselle and Julio) threatened Hawaii last week.  Iselle’s storm track is shown on the map to the right. (Please click on it to enlarge.)  I’ve highlighted the coordinates I’ve used for Iselle’s storm track…before it reached Hawaii.  Julio’s track was similar but ran a little north of Iselle’s.  So, were the sea surface temperatures along Iselle and Julio’s storm tracks unusually warm, and have the sea surface temperatures there warmed during the satellite era?

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Posted in Alarmism, Hurricanes, SST Update | 5 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 15 – August 2014 Update – An El Niño Mulligan?

Yes, I’m using the term Mulligan as in a replayed golf shot. Ocean-atmosphere processes have consumed most of the warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific from the downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave that had crossed the Pacific earlier this year. But we recently discussed and illustrated how a pool of subsurface warm water had broken off that Kelvin wave, returned west, and has now fed back into the western equatorial Pacific—priming the equatorial Pacific once again. (See Part 14 – Warm Water Recirculated?) With that recent “restocking” of warm water in the western equatorial Pacific, it looks like Mother Nature might be giving El Niño a second chance to develop this year.

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Posted in 2014-15 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 5 Comments

July 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

WEEKLY GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

Weekly global sea surface temperature anomalies are still reaching higher, now easily above the peak reached during the 1997/98 El Niño.  The vast majority of this new warming comes from the North Pacific.  I’ll try to publish a post in the next week about the apparent 2013 North Pacific Climate Shift.

16 Weekly Global

(16) Weekly Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

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Posted in SST Update | 9 Comments

What the Manmade Global Warming Consensus Means

There’s still a lot of buzz around the blogosphere and mainstream media about the current scientific consensus on human-induced global warming and climate change.  I thought it would interesting to get feedback on that groupthink…about what you think when you hear someone use the consensus fallacy in their arguments.

Let me start the ball rolling:

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Posted in Alarmism | 20 Comments

More on the Lewandowsky and Oreskes Co-Authored Paper Risbey et al. (2014)

Figure 0In this post, we’ll discuss more inconsistencies in the recently published paper Risbey et al. (2014).  These are major flaws in the paper…above and beyond the faults and curiosities discussed in the last post.   As you’ll recall, that paper–about climate model portrayals of ENSO and about modeled versus observed global surface temperature trends–was curiously co-authored by historian Naomi Oreskes and psychologist Stephan Lewandowsky.

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Posted in Climate Model Failings, El Nino-La Nina Processes, Model-Data Comparison SST, Model-Data LOST, The Halt In Global Warming, The Pause | 3 Comments

NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Are Approaching Zero

This is just a quick update for those keeping a close eye on the equatorial Pacific.

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Posted in 2014-15 El Nino Series, SST Update | 7 Comments

VERY, VERY PRELIMINARY July 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Update

OVERVIEW

Preliminary monthly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies have dropped below the +0.5 deg C threshold of El Niño conditions, while the preliminary monthly global data are still elevated.  Weekly NINO3.4 data are well below the threshold of El Niño conditions.   And weekly global sea surface temperatures are still cycling up at record high levels, which we discussed in the June update and will mention again later in this post.

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Posted in SST Update | 17 Comments