eBooks by Bob Tisdale

Sales of my ebooks (and tips) allow me to continue my research into human-induced and natural climate change and to continue to blog here at Climate Observations and at WattsUpWithThat?

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Posted in Essays & Books | 26 Comments

Alarmism Warning – Preliminary Monthly Global Sea Surface Temperatures at Record High Levels

Preliminary Note:  An “alarmism warning” indicates alarmism is imminent.  On the other hand, an “alarmism watch” indicates alarmism might occur, but that’s all the time.

We’re not just talking a record high for the month of August…we’re talking a record high for any month during the satellite era.  I suspect our alarmist friends will be making all sorts of claims about attribution even though climate models still almost double the observed rate of ocean surface warming during the satellite era.

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Posted in SST Update | 5 Comments

A Note on the 50-50 Attribution Argument between Judith Curry and Gavin Schmidt

Judith Curry and Gavin Schmidt are arguing once again about how much of the global warming we’ve experienced since 1950 is attributable to human-induced global warming.  Judith’s argument was presented in her post The 50-50 argument at ClimateEtc (where this morning there were more than 700 comments…wow…so that thread may take a few moments to download.)  Gavin’s response can be found at the RealClimate post IPCC attribution statements redux: A response to Judith Curry.

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Posted in CAGW Proponent Arguments, Climate Model Failings, Model-Data LOST | 8 Comments

A Lead Author of IPCC AR5 Downplays Importance of Climate Models

Richard Betts heads the Climate Impacts area of the UK Met Office. The first bullet point on his webpage under areas of expertise describes his work as a climate modeler. He was one of the lead authors of the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report (WG2).  On a recent thread at Andrew Montford’s BishopHill blog, Dr. Betts left a remarkable comment that downplayed the importance of climate models.

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Posted in CAGW Proponent Arguments, Climate Model Failings, Climate Model Problems | 5 Comments

The 50-50 argument

Bob Tisdale:

Judith, thanks for making this a separate thread. It’s an extremely important topic. The Gavins of this world will fight you tooth and nail on this, because they have tuned their models to a naturally occurring upswing in the surface temperatures–regardless of whether that upswing was caused by ENSO, the AMO, or other factors. Therefore, the Gavins of the world have likely doubled the expected warming, climate sensitivity, etc.

Originally posted on Climate Etc.:

by Judith Curry

Pick one:

a)  Warming since 1950 is predominantly (more than 50%)  caused by humans.

b)  Warming since 1950 is predominantly caused by natural processes.

View original 2,357 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

Hurricane Development Region Sea Surface Temperature Update – August 2014

01 800px-North_Atlantic_Tropical_Cyclone_Climatology_by_Day_of_Year_GraphThe peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season is rapidly approaching.  See the NOAA Hurricane Climatology  graph to the right.  (Give it a click for a full-sized version.) Hurricane frequency tends to peak in mid-September.

In the May 2014 post Hurricane Development Region Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies as We Start the 2014 Season, we presented sea surface temperature anomalies for the Main Development Region (10N-20N, 80W-20W) and for the Gulf of Mexico (21N-31N, 98W-81W) in 3 formats: (1) monthly long-term (1854 to present), (2) monthly satellite-era (1981 to present) and (3) weekly satellite-era (1990 to present).  In this post, we’ll only update the weekly data, and we’ll add the data for the Caribbean (10N-20N, 84W-60W) and the Extratropical Eastern Coastal Waters of the United States (24N-40N, 80W-70W). (A map showing where those regions are located is included as the final illustration.)

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Posted in Hurricanes, SST Update | 4 Comments

Will the Next El Niño Bring an End to the Slowdown in Global Surface Warming?

Numerous scientific papers have reported the hiatus in global surface warming will end with the next El Niño event.  But according to a new paper by Chen and Tung published today online in ScienceMag (link to paper follows), that’s not going to happen because the multidecadal variations in ocean heat sequestration at depth in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans will suppress surface warming for a decade or two more.  Additionally, unlike many other papers of its kind, Chen and Tung (2014) indicate a lessening in ocean heat sequestration to depth (the reverse of what we’re seeing now) was responsible for the accelerated warming during the latter part of the 20th Century.

Looking at Chen and Tung (2014) in a different light, they went looking for Trenberth’s missing heat, and, not surprisingly, they found it in the same ocean heat content reanalysis (ECMWF ORAS-4) used in Balmaseda et al. (2013), which Trenberth co-authored.

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Posted in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Ocean Processes, The Halt In Global Warming, The Pause | 16 Comments

July 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

GISS LOTIThis post provides an update of the data for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature data—GISS through July 2014 and HADCRUT4 and NCDC through June 2014—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature data (RSS and UAH) through July 2014.

The map to the above right shows the July 2014 surface temperature anomalies. Please click on it for a full-sized version. The map is available through the GISS map-making webpage.

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Posted in GISS, HADCRUT4, LOST Update, NCDC, TLT and LOST Updates, TLT Update | 7 Comments

On The Recent Record-High Global Sea Surface Temperatures – The Wheres and Whys

NOAA’s State of the Climate Report for June 2014 included the bullet point under global highlights (my boldface):

For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the highest for June on record and the highest departure from average for any month.

Yikes, it sounds as though it’s a manmade global warming problem.  But we know that’s not true because climate models doubled the warming rate of global sea surface temperatures for the past 3+ decades. So even record highs are much better than the temperatures anticipated by the latest and greatest climate models.  As an advanced warning, NOAA will be making a similar statement for July 2014. Figure 1 See the graphs to the right. (Click for full size.) The red horizontal lines are the July 2014 values. NOAA bases their discussions on the ERSST.v3b-based data (bottom graph).  The satellite-enhanced Reynolds OI.v2 dataset (top graph) serves as a reference. Yup, it’s true. July 2014 global sea surface temperatures are the warmest on record, too.

In this post, we’ll present which ocean basin is showing the elevated sea surface temperature anomalies, and where they’re showing it, and provide what will likely be eventually reported as the reasons for those warm temperatures: strong trade winds and persistent high sea level pressures over eastern Siberia and Alaska.

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Posted in Alarmism, El Nino-La Nina Processes, SST Dataset Info, SST Update | 9 Comments

Recent Hawaiian Tropical Cyclones – Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of the Storm Tracks

Iselle Storm TrackIt never fails.  Hurricanes and tropical cyclones always bring out the manmade global warming alarmists, with their claims of unusually warm sea surface temperatures along the storm tracks.  Of course those fictionally warmed sea surface temperatures were caused by rising CO2 emissions.  We expected and saw that nonsense when Sandy struck the east coast of the U.S. mainland back in 2012. Not unexpectedly, data contradicted the claims.  See the posts here and here.

The same unwarranted alarmist claims magically appeared when the two tropical cyclones (Iselle and Julio) threatened Hawaii last week.  Iselle’s storm track is shown on the map to the right. (Please click on it to enlarge.)  I’ve highlighted the coordinates I’ve used for Iselle’s storm track…before it reached Hawaii.  Julio’s track was similar but ran a little north of Iselle’s.  So, were the sea surface temperatures along Iselle and Julio’s storm tracks unusually warm, and have the sea surface temperatures there warmed during the satellite era?

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Posted in Alarmism, Hurricanes, SST Update | 5 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 15 – August 2014 Update – An El Niño Mulligan?

Yes, I’m using the term Mulligan as in a replayed golf shot. Ocean-atmosphere processes have consumed most of the warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific from the downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave that had crossed the Pacific earlier this year. But we recently discussed and illustrated how a pool of subsurface warm water had broken off that Kelvin wave, returned west, and has now fed back into the western equatorial Pacific—priming the equatorial Pacific once again. (See Part 14 – Warm Water Recirculated?) With that recent “restocking” of warm water in the western equatorial Pacific, it looks like Mother Nature might be giving El Niño a second chance to develop this year.

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Posted in 2014-15 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 6 Comments