eBooks by Bob Tisdale

Sales of my ebooks (and tips) allow me to continue my research into human-induced and natural climate change and to continue to blog here at Climate Observations and at WattsUpWithThat?

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Posted in Essays & Books | 25 Comments

New Climate Model Introduced, now with knobs!

[Satire On]

Due to the cutbacks in funding for climate science, a new climate model has been introduced to help politicians justify unnecessary laws that regulate carbon dioxide emissions…

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Posted in Satire/Humor | 1 Comment

ENSO is Like Dieting

Watching the progress of both on a regular basis is painful, because they take sooooo long.

But unlike the super El Niño that failed to form, I’ve lost 2 stone (about 30 pounds) so far this year.  One more to go (stone, not pounds).

Nothing too exciting in the sea surface temperature data this week, and I’m waiting for the next update of the GODAS pentads before I illustrate what appears to be a recycling of warm water from the original downwelling Kelvin wave.  I’ll show you in a few days.

Regards

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Lewandowsky and Oreskes Are Co-Authors of a Paper about ENSO, Climate Models and Sea Surface Temperature Trends (Go Figure!)

UPDATE 2:  Animation 1 from this post is happily displaying the differences between the “Best” models and observations in the first comment at a well-known alarmist blog. Please see update 2 at the end of this post.
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UPDATE: Please see the update at the end of the post.
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Figure 0The new paper Risbey et al. (2014) will likely be very controversial based solely on the two co-authors identified in the title above (and shown in the photos to the right).  As a result, I suspect it will garner a lot of attention…a lot of attention.   This post is not about those two controversial authors, though their contributions to the paper are discussed.  This post is about the numerous curiosities in the paper.  For those new to discussions of global warming, I’ve tried to make this post as non-technical as possible, but these are comments on a scientific paper.

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Posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes, Model-Data Comparison SST, The Halt In Global Warming, The Pause | 16 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 13 – More Mixed Signals

A few interesting things have happened since the July Update last week. On the ocean side, weekly sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region have dropped (just) below the threshold of El Niño conditions (using the standard NOAA base years of 1971-2000 for their Reynolds OI.v2 data).  On the atmospheric side, the 30-day running average of the BOM Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has finally neared the threshold of El Niño conditions. But the SOI does not reflect what’s going on along the equator. And there is evidence that the trade winds are slightly stronger than normal across most of the equatorial Pacific.

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Posted in 2014-15 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 32 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 12 – July 2014 Update – The Feedbacks Need to Kick in Soon

This post provides an update on the progress of the early evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño with data through the beginning of July 2014. The post is similar in layout to the May and June updates.  The post includes 3 gif animations and 13 illustrations so the post might take a few moments to load on your browser.  Please click on the illustrations and animations to enlarge them.

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Posted in 2014-15 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 12 Comments

June 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE WORKING TOWARD A RECORD WARM YEAR

Monthly global sea surface temperature anomalies for June are above the anomaly reached at the peak of the 2009/10 El Niño and they are close to highest anomaly reached during the response of global sea surface temperature anomalies to the 1997/98 El Niño. The following graph compares the sea surface temperature anomalies for 1997+, 2009+ and year-to-date 2014.  There are a number of reasons for the elevated global sea surface temperature anomalies:

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Posted in SST Update | 5 Comments

Gone Fishin’

In reality, I’ve got family in town for the holidays.  I’ll try to moderate comments a few times a day, though.   I’ll be back to a normal schedule on Sunday.

To everyone near the path of the hurricane, Stay Safe!!!

Cheers

Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Tropical Storm Arthur – There Is Nothing Unusual About the Sea Surface Temperatures Off the East Coast of the U.S.

Map 1

UPDATE (July 2, 2014):  See the correction at the end of the post.

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This post was prepared in anticipation of the usual nonsense we hear whenever a tropical storm or hurricane forms and is expected to strike the U.S.  The map to the right (Map 1) presents the weekly sea surface temperatures (not anomalies) for the Eastern U.S. Coastal Waters from Florida to Massachusetts (26N-42N, 82W-70W), for the week centered on Wednesday June 25,2014. (Please click the map to enlarge it.)  Seasonally warmed sea surface temperatures from the east coast of Florida northwards to North Carolina are well above the 26 deg C (79 deg F) value needed to generate and maintain tropical storms and hurricanes.

Before we look at the recent sea surface temperature anomalies, let examine longer-term data to put it in context.

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Posted in Hurricanes, SST Update | 4 Comments

IRI Blog Post – Eight Misconceptions About El Niño (and La Niña)

Yesterday, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) published a post about a number of mistaken beliefs about El Niño and La Niña events.

Misconceptions discussed: Continue reading

Posted in 2014-15 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes | 11 Comments

PRELIMINARY June 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Update

NINO REGION SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

The sea surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific continue be above the threshold of El Niño condition, though two regions  (NINO4 and NINO1+2) show recent drops in surface temperatures. The following are the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for the 4 most-often-used NINO regions for the week of June 25th.  From west to east:

  • NINO4 (5S-5N, 160E-150W) = +0.72
  • NINO3.4 (5S-5N, 170W-120W) = +0.67
  • NINO3 (5S-5N, 150W-90W) = +1.06
  • NINO1+2 (10S-0, 90W-80W) = +1.38

I’ll present that weekly data in a number of ways later in the post.

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Posted in SST Update | 6 Comments