eBooks by Bob Tisdale

Sales of my ebooks (and tips) allow me to continue my research into human-induced and natural climate change and to continue to blog here at Climate Observations and at WattsUpWithThat?

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Posted in Essays & Books | 27 Comments

New Study Predicts a Slight Cooling of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures over the Next Decade

Pierre Gosselin at NoTrickZone provided an introduction to a recently published paper in his post IPCC Scientist Mojib Latif Sees North Atlantic Cooling Over Next Decade…Confirms Oceans Play Crucial Role. The paper is Klöwer et al. (2014) Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the prediction of North Atlantic sea surface temperature. It is a study of the cause of the multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation).  They find that multidecadal variations in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation, precede the changes in North Atlantic surface temperatures.  Their findings suggest the “present warm phase of the AMO is predicted to continue until the end of the next decade, but with a negative tendency”.

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Posted in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Model-Data Comparison SST | 4 Comments

Finally Some Reality from RealClimate – But, Unfortunately, They Remained Unreal about Some Things

The post Ocean heat storage: a particularly lousy policy target + Update at RealClimate finally presented a few realities of the global-warming metric known as ocean heat content—realities we have discussed numerous times.  But they weren’t completely open about it and the other ocean temperature-related dataset, sea surface temperature.

That post by RealClimate founder Stefan Rahmstorf countered the 2014 comment Climate policy: Ditch the 2 °C warming goal by Victor and Fennel published in the journal Nature.  Faced with the realities of the slowdown in surface temperature warming, Victor and Fennel proposed using a number of other metrics as indicators of global warming, including ocean heat content.

I’m not sure if Rahmstorf realizes what he has done. His post at RealClimate will be used enthusiastically by skeptics for years to come. Rahmstorf’s post will raise it’s lovely head every time alarmists, like those at SkepticalScience, attempt to use a continued rise in global ocean heat content to counter the continued divergence between climate models and surface temperatures.  Example:  The SkepticalScience post What has global warming done since 1998? can now be discarded.

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Posted in CAGW Proponent Arguments, Ocean Depth Averaged Temperature, Ocean Heat Content Problems | 5 Comments

Quicky Mid-October 2014 El Niño Update

This is a quick update on the status of the sea surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific, along with a brief discussion of the recent excursion of the daily Southern Oscillation Index into El Niño conditions.  Things are NOT looking good if you’ve been looking forward to an El Niño (California), and things are looking up if you don’t want one (Australia).

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Posted in ENSO Update | 6 Comments

There is a Wide Range in the ARGO-Era Warming (and Cooling) Rates of the Oceans to Depths of 2000 Meters

The KNMI Climate Explorer has added a number of datasets to their Monthly observations webpage, where users select desired data based on global coordinates. (Many thanks to Dr. Geert Jan van Oldenborgh of KNMI.)  The new datasets include, under the heading of Ocean mean temperature, the National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) Vertically Averaged Temperature Anomaly data of the global oceans.  The data are supported by the Levitus et al. (2009) (2012) paper World Ocean Heat Content and Thermosteric Sea Level change (0-2000 m),1955-2010.  Basically, the NODC Vertically Averaged Temperature data are the temperature component of their Ocean Heat Content data.  KNMI has added the vertically averaged temperature anomaly data for the depth ranges of 0-100 meters (1955 to present), 0-700 meters (1955 to present) and 0-2000 meters (2005 to present).

Note: KNMI has also added to their Climate Explorer the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) Ocean Heat Content data for the depths of 0-700 meters.  We’ll compare them to the NODC’s data in a future post.

In this post we’ll take a quick look at the vertically averaged temperature anomaly data for 0-2000 meters. Continue reading

Posted in Ocean Depth Averaged Temperature | 6 Comments

September 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

My apologies to those who receive email notifications of a new post. I accidentally clicked the “publish” button before uploading the text and graphs.  So there was nothing wrong with your email notification.  My mistake.  Sorry.

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This post provides an update of the data for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature data—GISS through September 2014 and HADCRUT4 and NCDC through August 2014—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature data (RSS and UAH) through September 2014.

The three surface data suppliers have been claiming record high monthly values recently.  This is, in part, due to the record high sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific, which impact the global data because of the size of the North Pacific and the intensity of the weather-related warming there. For further information about the unusual warming of the North Pacific, see the post On The Recent Record-High Global Sea Surface Temperatures – The Wheres and Whys.  I will discuss that North Pacific hotspot (a.k.a. the blob) again in an upcoming post.

The other factors that contributed to the recent record highs are the updates to the GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) and UKMO HADCRUT4 data.  Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 10 Comments

September 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update


Note 1: The NOAA NOMADS servers are still off line.  NOAA replied to my email inquiry and advised that the NOMADS website will be down for an extended time period and there were no estimates for when they would be returned to service.

Note 2: Because the NOMADS servers are off line, I’ve downloaded the Reynolds OI.v2 data from the KNMI Climate Explorer, using the base years of 1981-2010.  The updated base years help to reduce the seasonal components in the ocean-basin subsets—they don’t eliminate those seasonal components, but they reduce them.

Note 3: We discussed the reasons for the elevated sea surface temperatures in the post On The Recent Record-High Global Sea Surface Temperatures – The Wheres and Whys.


The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for September 2014.  It was downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer. The contour range was set to -3.0 to +3.0 deg C.

0 Map

September 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.285 deg C)

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Posted in SST Update | 9 Comments

A Thread for Whiny-Ass Trolls

I have recently been bombarded with comments from a troll who doesn’t like that I’ve relegated his comments to the spam filter. Said troll has now written a post at his blog, which he linked in a comment here, complaining that I’ve banned him from commenting at my blog.  By doing so, he’s elevated his status to that of whiny-ass troll.

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Posted in Whiny-Ass Trolls | 2 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 18 – October 2014 Update – One Last Chance?

This year started off with a subsurface weather event below the surface of the tropical Pacific that made researchers and global warming alarmists hope for a super-duper El Niño in 2014.  Sadly, things didn’t work out for them.  The trade winds refused to cooperate.  Now, there are replays taking place below the Pacific that could (<–crucial word) lead to an El Niño for the 2014/15 ENSO season.

This post provides an update on the progress of the evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño (assuming one forms) with data through the beginning of October 2014. The post is similar in layout to the earlier updates. (See the entire 2014/15 El Niño series of posts here.) The post includes 3 gif animations and 13 illustrations so the post might take a few moments to load on your browser.  Please click on the illustrations and animations to enlarge them.

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Posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 8 Comments

Maybe It’s Time We Stopped Wasting Money Studying a Problem And Spent That Money Adapting to It

The Washington Post published an article today titled When sea levels rise, high tides will spill into communities far more often, study says.

What a revelation!  It’s almost as foolish as the studies that cost taxpayers tens of thousands of dollars to tell us that heat waves will occur more often (and cold spells less often) in a warming world.  A grade schooler could figure those things out.

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Posted in Alarmism, Sea Level | 11 Comments

Open Letter to Miriam O’Brien of HotWhopper (a.k.a. Sou)

UPDATE: Miriam responded in depth (?). See update at end of post for links.

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Date: October 5, 2014

Subject: Thank You for Admitting You Were Clueless

From: Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations and Regular Contributor at WattsUpWithThat

To: Miriam O’Brien – HotWhopper (a.k.a. Sou from Bundangawoolarangeera)

Dear Miriam:

I wanted to thank you for admitting you had little grasp of the subject matter in a recent post at your blog HotWhopper. Your post was Human influence on the Californian drought. (Archived version is here, just in case you decide to change your post.) Under the heading of “Disclaimer and further reading” you wrote (my boldface):

I make no assurances that I’ve interpreted the work properly. I think I’ve got the gist of it but please point out if you think I’ve gone astray anywhere.

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Posted in CAGW Proponent Arguments, HotWhopper | 29 Comments