eBooks by Bob Tisdale

Sales of my ebooks (and tips) allow me to continue my research into human-induced and natural climate change and to continue to blog here at Climate Observations and at WattsUpWithThat?

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Posted in Essays & Books | 25 Comments

VERY, VERY PRELIMINARY July 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Update


Preliminary monthly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies have dropped below the +0.5 deg C threshold of El Niño conditions, while the preliminary monthly global data are still elevated.  Weekly NINO3.4 data are well below the threshold of El Niño conditions.   And weekly global sea surface temperatures are still cycling up at record high levels, which we discussed in the June update and will mention again later in this post.

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Posted in SST Update | 5 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 14 – Warm Water Recirculated?

Figure 0 - Page 12 from Wekly ENSO UpdateThere may still be a chance for an El Niño during the 2014/15 ENSO season. A new “pocket” of warm subsurface water has formed in the western equatorial Pacific. See the note in the page from the most-recent NOAA Weekly ENSO Update to the right.  (Please click on illustration for full-sized image.) In their update, NOAA also makes note of that anomaly during their discussion of the Hovmoller on their page 15.  That subsurface temperature anomaly appears to have been caused by the recirculation of warm water from the earlier downwelling (warm) Kevin wave, not by another westerly wind burst.

Come along, I’ll show you.

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Posted in 2014-15 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 12 Comments

On Keating’s Challenge

A post by Alec Rawls at WUWT Taking Keating’s $30,000 skeptic challenge seriously, part 1 has renewed some interest in a challenge to disprove the theory of human-induced global warming.  This post is not about Alec’s post; it provides my general comments about Keating’s challenge to skeptics.

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Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

June 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

Sorry this update is late.  I got sidetracked with the post about Risbey et al. (2014), and the post about the new climate model, now with knobs.

This post provides an update of the data for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature data—GISS and NCDC through June 2014 and HADCRUT4 through May 2014—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature data (RSS and UAH) through June 2014.

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Posted in GISS, HADCRUT4, LOST Update, Lower Troposphere Temperature, TLT and LOST Updates, TLT Update, UKMO | 5 Comments

WOW! – How Many Fabrications, Misrepresentations, etc., Can One Blogger Roll into One Blog Post?

I always find Sou’s (a.k.a. Miriam O’Brien) posts at HotWhopper entertaining.   She normally is only capable of the Monty Python contradiction approach to argument.  When you read her posts in a Monty Python-light, they are very funny. Try it.  But in her recent post James Risbey and co: Another perspective on surface temperature observations and climate models Miriam has risen to new heights of misinformation.   That post was her “rebuttal” to my post Lewandowsky and Oreskes Are Co-Authors of a Paper about ENSO, Climate Models and Sea Surface Temperature Trends (Go Figure!).  It didn’t take long to understand what she had done.  She couldn’t counter my primary arguments (and if you’re wondering what they were, read the closing of my post), so Miriam just made stuff up.  I started to count the number of blatantly obvious fabrications, untruths, falsehoods, misrepresentations, etc., but then soon realized it would be better to try to find where she had not misrepresented my post and my work regarding ENSO.  I had very limited success in that.

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Posted in Alarmism | 6 Comments

New Climate Model Introduced, now with knobs!

[Satire On]

Due to the cutbacks in funding for climate science, a new climate model has been introduced to help politicians justify unnecessary laws that regulate carbon dioxide emissions…

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Posted in Satire/Humor | 4 Comments

ENSO is Like Dieting

Watching the progress of both on a regular basis is painful, because they take sooooo long.

But unlike the super El Niño that failed to form, I’ve lost 2 stone (about 30 pounds) so far this year.  One more to go (stone, not pounds).

Nothing too exciting in the sea surface temperature data this week, and I’m waiting for the next update of the GODAS pentads before I illustrate what appears to be a recycling of warm water from the original downwelling Kelvin wave.  I’ll show you in a few days.


Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Lewandowsky and Oreskes Are Co-Authors of a Paper about ENSO, Climate Models and Sea Surface Temperature Trends (Go Figure!)

UPDATE 2:  Animation 1 from this post is happily displaying the differences between the “Best” models and observations in the first comment at a well-known alarmist blog. Please see update 2 at the end of this post.
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UPDATE: Please see the update at the end of the post.
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Figure 0The new paper Risbey et al. (2014) will likely be very controversial based solely on the two co-authors identified in the title above (and shown in the photos to the right).  As a result, I suspect it will garner a lot of attention…a lot of attention.   This post is not about those two controversial authors, though their contributions to the paper are discussed.  This post is about the numerous curiosities in the paper.  For those new to discussions of global warming, I’ve tried to make this post as non-technical as possible, but these are comments on a scientific paper.

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Posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes, Model-Data Comparison SST, The Halt In Global Warming, The Pause | 58 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 13 – More Mixed Signals

A few interesting things have happened since the July Update last week. On the ocean side, weekly sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region have dropped (just) below the threshold of El Niño conditions (using the standard NOAA base years of 1971-2000 for their Reynolds OI.v2 data).  On the atmospheric side, the 30-day running average of the BOM Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has finally neared the threshold of El Niño conditions. But the SOI does not reflect what’s going on along the equator. And there is evidence that the trade winds are slightly stronger than normal across most of the equatorial Pacific.

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Posted in 2014-15 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 34 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 12 – July 2014 Update – The Feedbacks Need to Kick in Soon

This post provides an update on the progress of the early evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño with data through the beginning of July 2014. The post is similar in layout to the May and June updates.  The post includes 3 gif animations and 13 illustrations so the post might take a few moments to load on your browser.  Please click on the illustrations and animations to enlarge them.

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Posted in 2014-15 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 14 Comments