PRELIMINARY October 2011 SST Anomaly Update

STANDARD OPENING PARAGRAPH

The October 2011 Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data through the NOAA NOMADS website won’t be official until Monday, November 7th. Refer to the schedule on the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Frequently Asked Questionswebpage. The following are the preliminary Global and NINO3.4 SST anomalies for October 2011 that the NOMADS website prepares based on incomplete data for the month. I’ve also included the weekly data through October 26, 2011, but I’ve shortened the span of the weekly data, starting it in January 2004, so that the variations can be seen.

PRELIMINARY MONTHLY DATA

Based on the preliminary data Monthly NINO3.4 SST anomalies are at -0.64 deg C, which is within the range of a weak La Niña, but there are still a few months before we reach the normal peak months for ENSO.

Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomalies

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The preliminary global SST anomaly is +0.120 deg C, basically unchanged from last month, but they do tend to change from the preliminary data (based on an incomplete month) to the final official version.

Monthly Global SST Anomalies

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WEEKLY DATA

The weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies for the week centered on October 26, 2011 have taken another drop toward their seasonal La Niña minimum. They are presently at -1.12 deg C, within the range of a moderate La Niña.

Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomalies

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Weekly Global SST Anomalies have risen over the past week, and are presently at +0.126 deg C. I would anticipate that the Global SST anomalies will drop a bit more over the next month or two and that the lower anomalies for the past few weeks are not the seasonal lows. We shall see, though.

Weekly Global SST Anomalies

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SOURCES

SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:

http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

or:

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite
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