Monthly Archives: November 2011

The IPCC Says… – The Video – Part 1 (A Discussion About Attribution)

UPDATE: (February 13,2012):  I’ve included an edited version of Cell a from the IPCC’s Figure 9.5 to the end of the post. UPDATE (November 30, 2011):  I’ve changed the title of the video and post to include the following parenthetical phrase: (A … Continue reading

Posted in Model-Data LOST, Video | 18 Comments

PRELIMINARY November 2011 SST Anomaly Update

STANDARD OPENING PARAGRAPH The November 2011 Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data through the NOAA NOMADS website won’t be official until Monday, December 5th. Refer to the schedule on the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Frequently Asked Questionswebpage. The … Continue reading

Posted in SST Update | 9 Comments

The IPCC Says, “The Observed Patterns of Warming…, And Their Changes Over Time, Are Only Simulated By Models That Include Anthropogenic Forcing”

SUMMARY This post is the second in a series of posts that could be called the “casual observer posts”. The first was “Satellite-Era SST Anomalies: Models Vs Observations Using Time-Series Graphs And 17-Year Trends.”Like it, this is a post about perceptions, … Continue reading

Posted in CAGW Proponent Arguments, Model-Data LOST | 21 Comments

Satellite-Era SST Anomalies: Models Vs Observations Using Time-Series Graphs And 17-Year Trends

OVERVIEW This post presents observed 17-year (204-month) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly trends versus those of the climate models from the IPCC AR4, and presents it as the casual observer would look at it in terms of how well the … Continue reading

Posted in Model-Data Comparison SST | 14 Comments

Mid-November 2011 SST Anomaly Update

NINO3.4 NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies (a commonly used El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index) are still hovering within weak La Niña range. For the week centered on November 16, 2011, NINO3.4 SST anomalies are approximately -0.92 deg C. NINO3.4 SST … Continue reading

Posted in SST Update | Leave a comment

Tamino Misses The Point And Attempts To Distract His Readers

UPDATE (November 20, 2011): Refer to note at the end of the post about the missing graphs for Ensemble Members 18 and 30 in Animation 1. HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH The obvious intent of my recent post “17-Year And 30-Year Trends In Sea … Continue reading

Posted in CAGW Proponent Arguments, Climate Model Problems, Model-Data Comparison SST, Tamino | 23 Comments

17-Year And 30-Year Trends In Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies: The Differences Between Observed And IPCC AR4 Climate Models

We’ve illustrated and discussed in a number of recent posts how poorly the hindcasts and projections of the coupled climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4th Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) compared to instrument-based observations. And this … Continue reading

Posted in Model-Data Comparison SST | 31 Comments

Should Climate Models Be Initialized To Replicate The Multidecadal Variability Of The Instrument Temperature Record During The 20th Century?

The coupled climate models used to hindcast past and project future climate in the IPCC’s 2007 report AR4 were not initialized so that they could reproduce the multidecadal variations that exist in the global temperature record. This has been known … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Model Problems, Model-Data Comparison SST | 12 Comments

Imagine, If You Will…

I had prepared this animation for an upcoming post about the failure of the IPCC coupled climate models to reproduce the multidecadal variations that exist in the instrument-based global Sea Surface Temperature record. But that post should be taken seriously … Continue reading

Posted in CAGW Proponent Arguments, Climate Model Problems | 5 Comments

Report: Temperature Of The Surface Waters Of The Atlantic Ocean – Vol. VI, No. 1 – Dated March 1943

A couple of days ago Ibrahim left a link to a United States Army Air Forces report dated March 1943, which is kept on Internet Archive (archive.org), titled “Temperature Of The Surface Waters Of The Atlantic Ocean”. The preface describes … Continue reading

Posted in SST Dataset Info | 1 Comment