November 2011 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

HAPPY 30TH BIRTHDAY REYNOLDS OPTIMUM INTERPOLATION (OI) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA

The Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature data now covers a time period from November 1981 to November 2011. Will NOAA now be changing the climatology for this dataset?

MONTHLY SST ANOMALY MAP

The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for November 2011 downloaded from the NOMADS website. The contour levels are set at 0.5 deg C, and white is set at zero.

November 2011 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.088 deg C)

MONTHLY OVERVIEW

Monthly NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature anomalies well within the range of a moderate La Niña event. The Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly dropped slightly (about 0.05 deg C) to -0.925 deg C.

Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for both hemispheres dropped again in November, with a greater decline in the Northern Hemisphere, similar to last month. The Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are presently at +0.088 deg C.

(1) Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Monthly Change = -0.023 deg C

####################################

(2) NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

(5S-5N, 170W-120W)

Monthly Change = -0.047 deg C

####################################

THE EAST PACIFIC VERSUS THE REST OF THE WORLD

The East Pacific and the Rest-Of-The-World (Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific) datasets were first discussed in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World.Both datasets have been adjusted for the impacts of volcanic aerosols. The global oceans were divided into these two subsets to illustrate two facts. First, the linear trend of the volcano-adjusted East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 dataset is basically flat. The East Pacific linear trend varies with each monthly update. But it won’t vary significantly between El Niño and La Niña events.

(3) Volcano-Adjusted East Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-90N, 180-80W)

####################################

And second, the volcano-adjusted Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the Rest of the World (90S-90N, 80W-180) rise in very clear steps, in response to the significant 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño/La Niña events. It also appears as though the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of this dataset are making another upward shift in response to the most recent ENSO event. For those who are interested in the actual trends of the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies between the 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño events and between the 1997/98 and 2009/10 El Niño events refer to Figure 4 in Does The Sea Surface Temperature Record Support The Hypothesis Of Anthropogenic Global Warming? I further described (at an introductory level) the ENSO-related processes that cause these upward steps in the post ENSO Indices Do Not Represent The Process Of ENSO Or Its Impact On Global Temperature.

(4) Volcano-Adjusted Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies For The Rest of the World

(90S-90N, 80W-180)

####################################

The periods used for the average Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature anomalies between the significant El Niño events of 1982/83, 1986/87/88, 1997/98, and 2009/10 are determined as follows. Using the NOAA Oceanic Nino Index(ONI) for the official months of those El Niño events, I shifted (lagged) those El Niño periods by six months to accommodate the lag between NINO3.4 SST anomalies and the response of the Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, then deleted the Rest-Of-The-World data that corresponds to those significant El Niño events. I then averaged the Rest-Of-The-World SST anomalies between those El Niño-related gaps.

The “Nov 2010 to Present” average varies with each update. As noted in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World, it will be interesting to see where that Sea Surface Temperature anomaly average settles out, if it does, before the next significant El Niño drives them higher.

Of course, something could shift. Will the upward ratcheting continue when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) decides to turn around and start its decline? The upward steps would not continue in the North Atlantic, but would the AMO impact the upward steps in other portions of the globe? For more information about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, refer to the post An Introduction To ENSO, AMO, and PDO — Part 2.

The Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of the East Pacific Ocean, or approximately 33% of the surface area of the global oceans, have decreased slightly since 1982 based on the linear trend. And between upward shifts, the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the rest of the world (67% of the global ocean surface area) remain relatively flat. Anthropogenic forcings are said to be responsible for most of the rise in global surface temperatures over this period, but the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly graphs of those two areas prompt a two-part question: Since 1982, what anthropogenic global warming processes would overlook the Sea Surface Temperatures of 33% of the global oceans and have an impact on the other 67% but only during the months of the significant El Niño events of 1986/87/88, 1997/98 and 2009/10?

EAST INDIAN-WEST PACIFIC

I’ve eliminated the presentation and discussion of the East Indian-West Pacific data. It seemed redundant with the Rest-Of-The World data discussed above, and would have detracted from it.

NOTE ABOUT THE DATA

The MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE anomaly data from December 1981 to November 2011, as it is presented by the NOAA NOMADS website linked at the end of the post.

MONTHLY INDIVIDUAL OCEAN AND HEMISPHERIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE UPDATES

(5) Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

Monthly Change = -0.051 deg C

####################################

(6) Southern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

Monthly Change = -0.002 deg C

####################################

(7) North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 70N, 80W to 0)

Monthly Change = -0.154 deg C

####################################

(8) South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)

Monthly Change = -0.094 deg C

Note: I discussed the (now apparently temporary) upward shift in the South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the post The 2009/10 Warming Of The South Atlantic. It NOW appears as though the South Atlantic MAYreturn to the level it was at before that surge, and where it had been since the late 1980s. We’ll have to see where it settles.

####################################

(9) North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 65N, 100E to 90W)

Monthly Change = +0.081 Deg C

####################################

(10) South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 120E to 70W)

Monthly Change = -0.035 deg C

####################################

(11) Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(60S to 30N, 20E to 120E)

Monthly Change = +0.128 deg C

####################################

(12) Arctic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(65N to 90N)

Monthly Change = -0.323 deg C

####################################

(13) Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-60S)

Monthly Change = -0.057 deg C

####################################

WEEKLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

The weekly NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies are still cycling near the threshold of a moderate La Niña event. The NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature anomaly based on the week centered on November 30, 2011 is -1.130 deg C.

(14) Weekly NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

####################################

The weekly global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies dropped considerably over the past few weeks and are at +0.019 deg C.

(15) Weekly Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

####################################

ABOUT: Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

SOURCE

The Reynolds Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

About these ads

About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
This entry was posted in SST Update. Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to November 2011 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

  1. Don B says:

    So, the November global sea surface temperature is 9/100 of a degree C warmer than the 30 year average. That doesn’t seem scary.

  2. Bob Tisdale says:

    Don B: Nope. It’s 0.09 deg C above the average for the period of 1971-2000. Those are the base years for this dataset.

  3. Juraj V. says:

    So the alleged global warming is not that global. Areas with higher variability (like NA) force their imprint into the “global” record, overriding the considerable flat or cooling areas, but it does not mean the global trend as a mixture of all is really “global”.
    Interesting fact is, that North Atlantic SST follows the North Pacific SST with 1 year lag, doing some short-term prediction possible.
    Thanks Bob for the update.

  4. Pascvaks says:

    Bob,
    Not suggesting, just thinking. The “Global Continental Surface Temp Anomoly” would probably be more variable, and with Urban Heat Indices and deforestation over the past century, would likely show more of an Anthroprogenic effect, would it not? But the impact of “Continental” heat rise would still be small on global sea surface temp anomolies, right? (Based on data you’ve seen todate.)

  5. Bob Tisdale says:

    Pascvaks: I don’t recall reading any papers that describe the impact of varying Land Surface Temperatures on Sea Surface Temperatures. It’s always the other way around, with Land Surface Temperatures mimicking and exaggerating the variations in Sea Surface Temperatures

  6. Pingback: December 2011 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

  7. Pingback: Actual Temperatures conflict with “Global Warming” | The GOLDEN RULE

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s