PRELIMINARY February 2012 SST Anomaly Update

The Reynolds OI.v2 data was not updated during the week of February 19th, so we missed a mid-month update this month.

STANDARD OPENING PARAGRAPH

The February 2012 Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data through the NOAA NOMADS website won’t be official until Monday, February 5th. Refer to the schedule on the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Frequently Asked Questionswebpage. The following are the preliminary Global and NINO3.4 SST anomalies for February 2012 that the NOMADS website prepares based on incomplete data for the month. I’ve also included the weekly data through the week centered on February 22, 2012, but I’ve shortened the span of the weekly data, starting it in February 2004, so that the variations can be seen.

PRELIMINARY MONTHLY DATA

Based on the preliminary data, Monthly NINO3.4 SST anomalies are at -0.79 deg C. The 2011/12 La Niña is coming to an end. This is quite apparent in the weekly data.

Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomalies

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The preliminary global SST anomaly has rebounded to +0.100 deg C.

Monthly Global SST Anomalies

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WEEKLY DATA

The weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies for the week centered on February 22, 2012 are showing a major rebound over the past 4 weeks. They’ve risen about 0.81 deg C over that period and are now at -0.35 deg C, which is no longer in the La Niña range.

Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomalies

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Weekly Global SST Anomalies have risen quite rapidly in two weeks, rising 0.16 deg C. They are presently at +0.196 deg C.

Weekly Global SST Anomalies

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SOURCES

SST anomaly data is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:

http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

or:

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite=

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About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
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15 Responses to PRELIMINARY February 2012 SST Anomaly Update

  1. Don B says:

    Eyeballing the weekly charts since 2004, the current sharp rise in NINO 3.4 values off the end-of-year lows appears normal, but the sharp rise of global SST is unusual. Do you have an explanation for the latter?

  2. Bob Tisdale says:

    Don B: Sorry. I don’t have an explanation for the increase in the weekly global data, but it’ll be interesting to track it and see what develops. Here’s a gif animation that compares the global maps for the week centered on Feb 1 and Feb 22. Note the increase in the eastern South Pacific, and the increase in the far eastern equatorial Pacific.
    http://i41.tinypic.com/5bah4n.jpg

    NINO1+2 SST anomalies have been at 0.9 deg C for the past two weeks.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for

  3. Tom Sherman says:

    From: Tom Sherman
    I added a comment yesterday and today to your 2-16-09 post: equatorial current “visualizations”.
    Please check–email confirmation good enough.

  4. Bob Tisdale says:

    Tom Sherman: It took me a few moments to realize where you had posted the comments you were referring to.
    http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/02/equatorial-currents-before-during-and.html
    Sorry, I forget to check the old blogspot website.

    And I will thank you for the offer on participating in the gyre study, but I’d better pass. I’m not too sure what time I’ll have available for those pursuits.

  5. Christian says:

    Dear, Bob Tisdale
    The Shift in global Ocean Temperature is generated by a ocean-Kelvin-weave with eatsward-propagations.

    Or read here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

    For the Wind anomalys: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/uv850-30d.gif

    This is a very significant changing in the Oceantemperatures, that would cause a faster rising Temperature this year.. it could be that 2012 ends, a little bit warmer than 2011.

    greets

  6. Bob Tisdale says:

    Thanks, Christian

  7. Rogelio says:

    What we could be expecting this time round is a continuation of a drop or flatlining in atmospheric global temps (AMSU) with a neutral or even an El Nino, due to solar finally starting to kick in theory only BTW

  8. Tom Sherman says:

    Bob–please post following in an appropriate place:
    Subject: criitique of convective ‘downwelling’ metaphor in description of north subpolar/polar deepwater formation process//default trickle-down-at-edges counter-hypothesis
    No realistic picture has yet emerged of supposed intermittent vertical downwelling currents, which might carry super-chilled surface water down to the deep layer.
    The readily available counter-hypothesis is that in winter a super-chilled surface skin is drawn out to basin’s edge(s) to trickle down the slope wall.

  9. From Peru says:

    We have this bunch of climate/weather forecasts of ENSO for the rest of the year:

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2040

    The statistical models tend to predict cool conditions, while the dynamical models tend to predict warm conditions. Both means are in the ENSO-neutral range, but seeing the individual model forecasts almost none predict a double dip La Niña, while there are some models that predict an El Niño.

    Which ones have the best history in predicting the state of ENSO beginning from February/March to the next 6 months, the relatively (in this case) cool statistical models or the warm (in this case) dynamical models?

  10. Bob Tisdale says:

    From Peru: Sorry. I don’t have an answer to your question. I don’t monitor or analyse the ENSO model projections.

    Regards

  11. Pingback: February 2012 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

  12. David Appell says:

    Bob, what is the “La Niña range” for the NINO3.4 SST anomalies?

  13. Bob Tisdale says:

    David Appell, the threshold for La Nina conditions based on NINO3.4 SST anomalies is -0.5 deg C.

  14. Pingback: February 2012 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update | Watts Up With That?

  15. Pingback: The Sudden Rebound in Weekly Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

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