May 2012 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

MONTHLY SST ANOMALY MAP

The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for May 2012. It was downloaded from the NOMADS website. The contour levels are set at 0.5 deg C, and white is set at zero.

May 2012 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.192 deg C)

MONTHLY OVERVIEW

With the end of the 2011/12 La Niña, the Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly continued to warm as one would expect in May 2012 (about 0.338 deg C) to +0.038 deg C.

In response, Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies have also warmed. Both Hemispheres warmed, with the majority taking place in the Northern Hemisphere, primarily in the North Pacific. The only ocean basins to show cooling in May 2012 were the South Atlantic and Arctic Ocean. The monthly Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are presently at +0.192 deg C.

(1) Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Monthly Change = +0.059 deg C

####################################

(2) NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

(5S-5N, 170W-120W)

Monthly Change = +0.338 deg C

####################################

THE EAST PACIFIC VERSUS THE REST OF THE WORLD

The East Pacific and the Rest-Of-The-World (Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific) datasets were first discussed in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World, and was discussed a few months later in How Can Things So Obvious Be Overlooked By The Climate Science Community?, and in my book If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their deceptive Ads?.

In the following two graphs, both datasets have been adjusted for the impacts of volcanic aerosols. The global oceans were divided into these two subsets to illustrate two facts. First, the linear trend of the volcano-adjusted East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 dataset is basically flat. The East Pacific linear trend varies with each monthly update. But it won’t vary significantly between El Niño and La Niña events.

(3) Volcano-Adjusted East Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-90N, 180-80W)

####################################

And second, the volcano-adjusted Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the Rest of the World (90S-90N, 80W-180) rise in very clear steps, in response to the significant 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño/La Niña events. It also appears as though the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of this dataset are making another upward shift in response to the most recent ENSO event. For those who are interested in the actual trends of the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies between the 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño events and between the 1997/98 and 2009/10 El Niño events refer to Figure 4 in Does The Sea Surface Temperature Record Support The Hypothesis Of Anthropogenic Global Warming?  I further described (at an introductory level) the ENSO-related processes that cause these upward steps in the post ENSO Indices Do Not Represent The Process Of ENSO Or Its Impact On Global Temperature.

(4) Volcano-Adjusted Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies For The Rest of the World

(90S-90N, 80W-180)

####################################

The periods used for the average Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature anomalies between the significant El Niño events of 1982/83, 1986/87/88, 1997/98, and 2009/10 are determined as follows. Using the original NOAA Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for the official months of those El Niño events, I shifted (lagged) those El Niño periods by six months to accommodate the lag between NINO3.4 SST anomalies and the response of the Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, then deleted the Rest-Of-The-World data that corresponds to those significant El Niño events. I then averaged the Rest-Of-The-World SST anomalies between those El Niño-related gaps.

The “Nov 2010 to Present” average varies with each update. As noted in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World, it will be interesting to see where that Sea Surface Temperature anomaly average settles out, if it does, before the next significant El Niño drives them higher.

Of course, something could shift. Will the upward ratcheting continue when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) decides to turn around and start its decline? The upward steps would not continue in the North Atlantic, but would the AMO impact the upward steps in other portions of the globe? For more information about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, refer to the post An Introduction To ENSO, AMO, and PDO — Part 2.

The Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of the East Pacific Ocean, or approximately 33% of the surface area of the global oceans, have decreased slightly since 1982 based on the linear trend. And between upward shifts, the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the rest of the world (67% of the global ocean surface area) remain relatively flat. As discussed in my book, anthropogenic forcings are said to be responsible for most of the rise in global surface temperatures over this period, but the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly graphs of those two areas prompt a two-part question: Since 1982, what anthropogenic global warming processes would overlook the Sea Surface Temperatures of 33% of the global oceans and have an impact on the other 67% but only during the months of the significant El Niño events of 1986/87/88, 1997/98 and 2009/10?

STANDARD NOTE ABOUT THE DATA

The MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE anomaly data from November 1981 to May 2012, as it is presented by the NOAA NOMADS website linked at the end of the post. I’ve added the 13-month running-average filter to smooth out the seasonal variations.

MONTHLY INDIVIDUAL OCEAN AND HEMISPHERIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE UPDATES

(5) Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

Monthly Change = +0.124 deg C

####################################

(6) Southern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

Monthly Change = +0.008 deg C

####################################

(7) North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 70N, 80W to 0)

Monthly Change = +0.042 deg C

####################################

(8) South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)

Monthly Change = -0.019 deg C

Note: I discussed the (now apparently temporary) upward shift in the South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the post The 2009/10 Warming Of The South Atlantic. Prior to that shift, the South Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies had been relatively flat for about two decades. It looks as though the South Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies MAYreturn to the level they were at before that surge, and where they had been since the late 1980s. We’ll have to see where things settle.

####################################

(9) North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 65N, 100E to 90W)

Monthly Change = +0.144 Deg C

####################################

(10) South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 120E to 70W)

Monthly Change = +0.018 deg C

####################################

(11) Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(60S to 30N, 20E to 120E)

Monthly Change = +0.019 deg C

####################################

(12) Arctic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(65N to 90N)

Monthly Change = -0.028 deg C

####################################

(13) Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-60S)

Monthly Change = +0.028 deg C

####################################

WEEKLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

The NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature anomalies based on the week centered on June 6, 2012 are well above zero. They are presently at +0.248 deg C.

(14) Weekly NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

####################################

The weekly global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are warming in response to the seasonal ENSO signal and are at +0.153 deg C. As I noted a couple of times over the last few months, even though this La Niña event was not as strong as the one that occurred in 2010/11, the low for the weekly global sea surface temperatures this year are noticeably cooler than last.

(15) Weekly Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

####################################

WOULD YOU LIKE TO UNDERSTAND WHY THE ATLANTIC-INDIAN-WEST PACIFIC DATASET SHIFTS UPWARD IN RESPONSE TO MAJOR EL NIÑO EVENTS?

Over the past three years, in so many posts it’s not practical to link them here, I’ve presented the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related processes that cause the blatantly obvious upward shifts in sea surface temperature anomalies for the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific data, shown above. I’ve also explained why the East Pacific shows no warming over the past 30 years. You’re welcome to use the search function on this webpage.

Better yet, you could buy a copy of my book and save yourself some time. It is available in pdf and Kindle formats. See If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their deceptive Ads? Amazon also provides a Kindle preview that runs from the introduction through a good portion of Section 2. That’s about the first 15% of the book. A copy of the introduction, table of contents, and closing can be found here.

Of course, donations are welcome and gratefully accepted, because there’s no truth to the rumor that bloggers skeptical of anthropogenic climate change are supported by big oil. No truth at all.

SOURCE

The Reynolds Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

About these ads

About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
This entry was posted in SST Update. Bookmark the permalink.

11 Responses to May 2012 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

  1. Pingback: Comments On “Human-induced Global Ocean Warming On Multidecadal Timescales” By Gleckler Et Al 2012 | Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.

  2. nevket240 says:

    Yep. according to the good and reputable, unbiased, taxpayer funded Dr Church, WE DID IT.
    So bend over Bob and take your punishment like a man. I’m too busy changing my wet pants.
    regards from a steamy Zhuhai.

  3. Pascvaks says:

    Bob –
    Thanks again for the Monthly Update.
    Q: Going to the OISST data link you give, was curious if graphs were equally ‘telling’ when the center of the various ocean gyres we used instead of the large areas that you have used for sometime to show variations? I imagine you’ve plotted these centers at sometime in the past to see if there’s any ‘better view’, so to speak, of warming and cooling trends. As ‘NINO3.4′ is a stamp-sized area, would Gyre center ‘stamp-sized’ graphs offer any better or different info? Seems that the smaller Gyre Center areas would not show as much ‘static’ (so to speak) from ocean conveyor variations? (Hopefuly I haven’t found the exception to the rule that there’s no such thing as a dumb question;-)

  4. Pascvaks says:

    sorry -“gyres we used instead” should be “gyres were used instead”;-)

  5. Bob Tisdale says:

    Pascvaks: I have animated portions of the global oceans, not only the global maps. It was 3 years ago and they’re presented on YouTube. The videos are still there, so the links should work:

    http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2009/07/13/animations-of-weekly-sst-anomaly-maps-from-january-3-1996-to-july-1-2009/

    Regards

  6. Pascvaks says:

    Bob-
    Thanks for your reply and, as always, your patience with a Old ‘Spring-Butt’ Question Asker. Not able to ‘see’ the animations at your link to earlier material, computer is too old too; I read the article several times and put the below graph together thinking maybe a pic is still worth a thousand words;-) Your Indian Ocean coverage above is 60S to 30N and 20E to 120E. If one were to restrict Indian Ocean coverage to Grye Center Area (say with 30S to 20S and 60E to 90E) –which is what I tried to do in the link I’ve given below– does this plot of temperature change within the Grye Only offer anthing of value that your larger area graphs are not able to capture? (Guess I’m begging the question, why such a large Indian Ocean area and not a smaller one at the center of the gyre? Obviously, I’m wondering about the size of the other ocean areas as well;-) Thanks again for your patience.

    http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?ctlfile=monoiv2.ctl&ptype=ts&var=ssta&level=1&op1=none&op2=none&month=nov&year=1981&fmonth=may&fyear=2012&lat0=-30&lat1=-20&lon0=60&lon1=90&plotsize=800×600&title=Indian+Ocean+Gyre+%28-30+to+-20%2C+60+to+90%29&dir=

  7. Bob Tisdale says:

    Pascvaks: I took a look at the SSTs at the “center of gyres” early on (almost 4 years ago), using NOAA’s ERSST.v2 dataset when it was available through NOMADS. Looking back at it, I’m not overly impressed by the coordinates I used for the “centers” for the South Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans.

    http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2008/07/26/ssts-at-the-centers-of-ocean-gyres-and-a-predictor-of-north-atlantic-sst/

    My findings only seemed worthwhile for the North Atlantic. According to my post, the SST’s at the center of the North Atlantic gyre led the rest of the gyre by 35 months. I have NOT tried to duplicate that with any other datasets. Maybe I would have had better results with the other gyres if I had found the proper centers. Or there could be so little real long-term (ship- and buoy-based) data in the other ocean basins that were looking more at infilled data and not measured data.

  8. Pascvaks says:

    Bob-
    Thank you again. At that link now;-)

  9. Pingback: The NOAA Weekly ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Indices Webpage Has Changed Location | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

  10. Pingback: Keeping track of NOAA’s ENSO data changes | Watts Up With That?

  11. Pingback: Keeping track of NOAA’s ENSO data changes « TaJnB | TheAverageJoeNewsBlogg

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s