Introduction to My WattsUpWithThat-TV Presentation

Live feed for WUWT-TV

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/wuwt-tv-live

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First, I have to thank Anthony Watts for asking and allowing me to be a part of the inaugural WattsUpWithThat-TV special. I’m honored, as I am every time Anthony cross posts one of my blog posts. And I really have to thank Anthony for allowing me to pre-record my presentation. I haven’t given a live presentation in about 2 decades and the thought of it did not make me happy.

At present, my presentation (Part 1) is scheduled for 6:00PM (PST) or 9:00 (EST).

My presentation is The Natural Warming of the Global Oceans. For those viewers without scientific backgrounds, I’ve tried to make it as non-technical as possible.

The IPCC and other proponents of anthropogenic global warming have relied on the general public’s lack of understanding of the natural processes that cause the oceans to warm. The IPCC et al (I wonder if Al Gore thinks “et al” means “and Al Gore”) would have preferred of course that everyone remained in the dark.

Hopefully after watching my presentation, viewers will have a better understanding of those processes. And hopefully the viewers will be as amazed as I was at how blatantly obvious it is that the warming occurred naturally. It’s really tough to miss once you know how it works.

After about a 5-minute lead-in, there are 3 primary topics:

1. Introduction to El Niño and La Niña.

2. Long-term impacts of major El Niño and La Niña events on sea surface temperatures.

3. Impacts of El Niño and La Niña and other natural variables on Ocean Heat Content.

But the topics are so interrelated that you can’t provide a detailed discussion of El Niño and La Niña processes without explaining why the sea surface temperatures of the global oceans have warmed over the past 30 years. And you can’t discuss El Niño and La Niña without also explaining why the Ocean Heat Content of the tropics has warmed. Conversely, you can’t discuss the long-term warming of the sea surface temperature and ocean heat content without discussing El Niño and La Niña.

Due to the length of my presentation I’ve had to divide it into two parts. Part 1, which is the scheduled presentation, covers all three topics with the exception of the ocean heat content warming outside of the tropics. I’ve also included brief discussions of the natural warming of other metrics such lower troposphere temperature (TLT) and land surface air plus sea surface temperature datasets like those available from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).

Then, in part 2, there is a more detailed discussion of the natural warming of the Ocean Heat Content data outside of the tropics, and a good look at the problems with ocean heat content data. I’ve provided part 2 as a fallback video for Anthony, just in case he encounters some technical problems. If part 2 is not used in the WattsUpWithThat-TV special, it will be posted on YouTube, as will part 1.

Back to part 1: I used lots of illustrations from my book Who Turned on the Heat? including the cartoon-like annotated illustrations from Section 1. Of course, there are graphs of different data to confirm many of the topics.

Lots of graphs. And there are animations. In addition to those I’ve created, I’ve included a great animation from the NASA Scientific Visualization Studio called Visualizing El Niño. And there’s a look at a sea level animation from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to illustrate a portion of the ENSO process that is not visible in sea surface temperature or ocean heat content data.

Other than my book, this is my most detailed presentation on the natural warming of the global oceans. I hope the viewers find it interesting and enlightening.

As soon as the WattsUpWithThat-TV special is over on Thursday evening, I’ll provide YouTube versions of both parts.

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About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
This entry was posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes, Natural Warming, Video. Bookmark the permalink.

8 Responses to Introduction to My WattsUpWithThat-TV Presentation

  1. Conor McMenemie says:

    Hi Bob. I deliberatly kept my trusty computer ‘off-net’ for reasons which might become obvious rather soon. There are a few charts which go a long way to explain Equitorial Atlantic SST variability but I would rather chew things over with you first – I know you dont review or publish stuff first, but what I have been working on is most probably the ‘holy grail’ of climate science. There is a man made factor relevent to the maturation of AEWs, these wves being significant in reflecting incoming solar radiation away from the sea surface. If the mass/frequency of AEWs is reduced, Equitorial SST increases – start thinking up to 5.5kwh/day (0.5’C/day down to 10m) x 100,000s of km2s. If you have an e mail address where I can send the charts then they will be with you soon after.
    Conor

  2. Bob Tisdale says:

    Conor, feel free to provide links in your reply. If you’d like me not to publish them, mark them as such and I won’t approve your comment.
    Regards

  3. Bob Tisdale says:

    Conor, the email link you forwarded does not work here.

  4. Bob Tisdale says:

    Conor, I finally got through to your PowerPoint presentation. I assume you wanted me to look at the SST presentation. Please google “Atlantic El Nino”. There are a number of studies that discuss those minor events.

    Regards

  5. Conor McMenemie says:

    It would be very useful if you could chew over the PPT presentation; the charts in slide 13 (aswan/sahel) and 130 (aswan/sahel/atlantic SST change) are ither coincidental or not. We can accept the Aswan Flow is deliberatly man made. Sooooooo we have to address a big question. I have looked at Atlantic and El Nino on may occations, but the fundimental question of the applied solar energy due to cloud variability keeps turning up. There have been many explinations about how Atlantic SSTs affect Sahelian rainfall, but there is an instutionalised myopia when I try to get the same experts to accept that the resultant reduction in cloud/moisture flux into the Atlantic would also cause SST changes due to variability in applied solar energy – so chicken + egg?. Again there is a collective amnesia when trying to deal with the fact that changes to Lake Egypt evapotransportation will have an effect down wind, that in this timeframe the E Sahel is relevent and the chart demonstrates a very strong correlation??????
    C

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  7. Conor McMenemie says:

    I see your point re the ‘minor events’, but given a scenario where El Nino or AMO provides us with a hypothetical +- 5% SST variability year to year, as opposed to the NiCE scenario which provides a year on year + 0.5% increase. The compounded effect of the apparently insignificant NiCE scenario (in this example) is that of a 10% increase after 20 years, yet we can still have the EL Nino/AMO at +-5%. We are now in year 48 since Lake Egypt disapeared. 5 year averaging had been used to cancel out any annual variability to see what the underling trends is – this trend in SST is consistent with the Aswan/Sahel event. I have just gone over the original data to view the actual (red less blue) variability to ensure I am accurate here – it is almost constant since the early 1970s after rising sharply since the mid 60s. The only conclusion that I can come to remains that ‘the variability in applied solar energy, as an effect of cloud/moisture flux from Sub Saharan into the Equitorial Atlantic is providing us with an insideous warming of said Ocean – at a rate consistent with published data for global climate change’. The disappearence of Lake Egypt’s 3,000m/s evapotransportation into Sub Saharan Africa is the probable cause for a net reduction in the mass/frequency of AEWs, which provides for the Equitorial Atlantic solar variability.

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