UPDATE (February 18,2012): Bob has published his first ebook titled If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop Their Deceptive Ads? It is is intended for readers interested in anthropogenic global warming/climate change who have limited technical or science backgrounds, to show and explain how:
1. the IPCC has exaggerated the capabilities of the climate models they employ to make projections of future climate,
2. the comparisons of the surface temperature data and the IPCC’s climate model simulations for the 20thCentury actually contradict the hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming,
3. there is a very logical and natural explanation for most of the warming that has taken place over the past 30 years. Since the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is responsible for that warming, the book includes a very basic but very detailed explanation of that natural phenomenon. And,
4. the data the readers need to research the subject on their own, if they desire, is available to them in an easy-to-use format.
HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Bob Tisdale is a retiree who is presently looking to return to the workforce or for funding that would allow him to continue his research into, and blog posts about, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other natural causes of global warming and climate change. His blog posts here at Climate Observations include periodic updates of Sea Surface Temperatures (Example) and Ocean Heat Content (Example), and detailed presentations of the multiyear aftereffects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events (Example), of the natural causes of the rise in Ocean Heat Content since 1955 (See here, here, and here), and of the other modes of natural sea surface temperature variability such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (Example) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Example). Bob has also prepared posts that illustrate the multiyear impacts and aftereffects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on combined global land+sea surface temperature data (Example) and on Lower Troposphere Temperature (TLT) anomalies (Example). And he has prepared posts that show how poorly the Coupled Climate Models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) actually represent past sea surface temperature variations, calling into question their use as attribution and climate projection tools (Examples here, here, and here). Bob’s “Introduction To” posts on natural modes of Sea Surface temperature variability; the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); are visited daily by those looking for easy-to-read, well-illustrated, and detailed but basic discussions. In many of his posts, Bob uses animations of sea surface temperature anomaly maps (Example) and Ocean Heat Content anomaly maps (Example) to help illustrate the discussion. Like all skeptical climate change bloggers, Bob Tisdale relies on you, his readers, for support.
Many of Bob’s posts are cross-posted at Watts Up With That? (WUWT), the very popular weblog hosted by Anthony Watts.
Hi Bob,
This more of a test run plus a question.
I was reading a paper on sonar signals in the ocean and how the speed increases with depth (this relates to the Air-France crash in the Atlantic and its detection) and suggestion was that summer warm water tended to keep the ocean layers intact because of surface warming but winter with colder air and sea turbulence from more frequent storms would allow for cooler SST’s and allow by convection the warmer water from below to rise to the surface.
It was a reputable paper but is this a reasonable assumption ?
Thanks,
Keith.
Sorry, Keith, can’t answer your question. I haven’t studied that portion of it.
I’d like to monitor your posts, but couldn’t find an RSS feed of your site. This is an (important) feature of WordPress.
If you do provide the subscription feed, can you tell me where it is. You should consider making this more obvious.
If there is no feed, can you provide one. It would let interested reader track your important information.
I am in the middle of a debate with the Nature Conservancy which has partnered with GISS. Keep up the good work. I will be including some of this in my upcoming presentation in Guilford Ct on the 17 of May. It involves Coastal Resilience which appears to be nothing more than a big land grab that is to be nation wide. Guilford is one of the pilot projects along with Old Saybrook and South Bay on Long Island. It is important to stop this in the bud.
Jim Reekes: Sorry. I just added the RSS links.
Regards
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thanks for your very detailed and animated work which significantly adds to the understanding of these very complex processes.
Dear Bob
Sea Surface Energy (SSE)
its a great site, but one major point which has distorted almost all of the SST data, particularly at the equator where the warming is applied by solar energy, is for example that at a latitude of 20N each grid square is about 15% smaller than at the equator. By changing the SST data into SSE (energy: specific heat capacity of sea water = 3993j/kg/C x relative surface per grid square) one is better able to understand the dynamics of the change in applied force i.e. how the net solar energy absorbed by the sea surface has changed. Comparing mean 1880/1930 to 1931/2009 SSE, i.e. before/after CC, we can note that a warming pattern off the W African coast (5S to 20N) spreading into the Caribean, is consistent with both the droughts in the Sahel (expansion of the Sahara) and Global Mean Temperature….. This points to the warming pattern (CC) being caused by the reduced cloud/moisture flux from the Sahel.Unfortunatly the CC arguement wrongly relies upon the Atlantic SST being causative in the Sahelian droughts. One certian senior scientist at a notible climate institute asked me 4 times not to format this data???? If you want to look for the smoking gun in this unhappy story, look to the reduction and eventual disappearence of a warm, shallow, freshwater, 25,000 km2 lake which had appeared in the NE Sahara for the passed few million years: the annual flooding of the Nile Flood Plain. Oops!
I’m speculatingn here, but the reduced evapotransportation from the Flood plain which had been pulled south into the Horn/NE Sudan reduces the frequency/magnitude of squall lines/easterly waves which travel westward across the continent and into the Atlantic, hence the increased solar energy.
This you think can not possibly effect such a large warming pattern? We are looking at about a net 200 watts per day of energy within the time frame, this equates to about an additional 1/2 second of additional solar energys, easily within the parimeters of the Sahelian drought cloud flux deficit arguement. This 1/2 second being spread over +10,000,000 km2 of of Ocean. Irrespective of the apparent absurdity of the arguement, the numbers do add up.
Conor
Conor McMenemie says: “Sea Surface Energy (SSE) its a great site…”
Please provide a link, Conor. Thanks.
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Following up on a suggestion about income-generation someone made a month ago, I personally got involved with leapforceathome.com, and went through their study/examination process. Not easy, not trivial. The work is rating of search engine results, on a detailed scale. I’ve just begun actually doing the work (using a dedicated FF profile with the addon tools they provide), so don’t have much OTJ feedback yet.
If $13.50/hr base rate with full discretion on how many and which hours (minimum about 7-8/mo.) is of interest, check them out.
Thanks for the tip, Brian H
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Email me if you are still looking for that solar paper
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Geoff Seidner: I haven’t a clue how you would change the email link at your webpage.
Since you included it in your comment, I haven’t posted your comment.
Regards
Dear Bob re my article (November 13, 2011) on how man-made changes to the Nile flood plain (since 1902) has altered Sahelian rainfall, then cloud/moisture flux over the Atlantic/Pacific, thus allowing for more solar energy (consistent with published CC data) to be absorbed by the sea surface. This additional energy (heat) then distributed as the sea current carry the additional energy N & S. If you can send an e mail address I can send you the Aswan Sahel chart ~ everything from there is basic and I will not bother you with the detail unless you make a specific request. If this is not the smoking gun we are looking for then I don’t know what is.
Conor
Conor McMenemie: Please provide a link to the article so that others can read it.
Thanks.
Dear Bob: I am a director of a tidal energy R&D co, the work is an unpublished bit of my own research and is not formatted in the convention way. Having it reviewed (Dr Carl Bountempo.- Senior Scientist Met Office, Prof Paul Hardaker – Chief Exec RMetS. Dr Grimes Reading Uni. Prof Ralf Toumi – Imperial College London. Compton . Tucker – NASA. Dr Geir Lundestad _ Director Nobel Inst). I have been met with silence or fiction, thus any useful attempts at formal publication are thwarted. I can send you the original chart and associated material (sufficient of the Nobel Inst) and you can decide how best to attach to your blog.
c
Conor: Has your paper been published anywhere else, at a blog for instance? You could then leave a link. If you’re asking me to publish your paper at my blog, sorry, that’s something I don’t do. I publish only my own investigative/research work here.
My work has not been published. Since the main theme is that the dams on the Nile at Aswan* have affected the rainfall in Sub Saharan Africa (since 1902), the political implications are enormous. This same reduced Sahelian cloud/moisture flux into the Atlantic producing a seasonally migrating SST warming pattern, consistent with published data for global mean temperature, again raises very uncomfortable issues with the climate community: I had asked a senior police officer to be present at my 2 hour meeting with the Chief Exec of RMetS, this was to ensure that there would be a credible witness to the BS which pervades every presentation of the Nile problem: despite accepting that the reduced Sahelian cloud/moisture flux would produce a migrating Atlantic SST warming pattern, when I produced this patters he said it was caused by CO2 – complete BS. This same senario had been acted out with a so called climate expert for the world food programe. NOBODY WANTS TO KNOW that man made changes to the Nile Flood Plain have had a massive effect upon the equitorial weather systems, you might include a generalised weakening of the ITCZ because one of its moisture contributing elements has reduced/disappeared. If you are searious about SSTs then we can both work on this; I am patenting and prototyping tidal turbines, not a meteorologist or accademic. *The dams were originally designed to withhold the latter part of the annual flood to allow for the Egyptian cereal crop to be larger and harvested at the same time each year, so the merchent shipping fleet would be on hand to distrubute it thru the commonwealth. The high dam stopped the flood completely ~ The operation of the dams affectivley changed the surface area of a 26,000 km2, warm, shallow, freshwater lake in the Sahara which had contributed to the Sahelian rain budget from mid July for the passed few million years.Thus the strong correlation between Aswan Runoff and Sahelian rainfall.
Conor;
GrammarNasty here.
scenario
equatorial
serious
academic
effectively
Seems to me the Sahara had greened and dried a few times before the Aswan was built.
Just sayin’.
True, but when correlating Sahelian rainfall with the Aswan run-off, one has to take into consideration that the dam opened in 1902, was enlarged from 1907 to 12, again from 1929 to 33. From 1960 to 64 the river ran freely for the first time since 02 and the new dam began to affect river flow from 1964. The Sahelian rainfall varies consistent with those dates; so we have to question why this happens. Re the recent greening of the Sahel; in 1999 Uganda opened its 40MW hydro-station at Owen Falls on Lake Victoria, allowing for an additional 60 km2 (plus) of water to flow into the Nile. Much of this was diverted into the Toska Lakes in Egypts southern desert. These new lakes have been evaporating back into the Sahel/ITCZ. They are nearly totally dried up now, so we might consider that the very recent regression of the Sahel may be an effect. If any of you can tell me how to attach a chart to this please let me know.
c