PRELIMINARY March 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Update

GENERAL NOTES – BOILERPLATE

The March 2014 Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data through the NOAA NOMADS website won’t be official until Monday, April 7,, 2014. Refer to the schedule on the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Frequently Asked Questions webpage. The following are the preliminary Global and NINO3.4 SST anomalies for March 2014 that the NOMADS website prepares based on incomplete data for the month. I’ve also included the weekly data through the week centered on March 26, 2014, but I’ve shortened the span of the weekly data. As noted in the recent mid-April 2013 update, I’ve started using March 2001 so that the variations can be seen AND so that you can see how “flat” global sea surface temperature anomalies have been since then.

The base years for anomalies are 1971-2000, which are the standard base years from the NOAA NOMADS website for this dataset.

PRELIMINARY MONTHLY DATA

The preliminary global sea surface temperature anomalies are presently at about +0.23 deg C. Based on the preliminary data, they warmed (an increase of about +0.02 deg C) since February.

01 Global Monthly

Monthly Global SST Anomalies

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Posted in SST Update, Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Skeptics Take Bloggie Awards in Six Categories This Year

Congratulations to Anthony Watts. WattsUpWithThat won The Weblog Awards in two categories for 2013: Best Group or Community Weblog—and—Weblog of the Year.

ClimateAudit won the Best Topical Weblog award. Congratulations to Steve.

Jo Nova, an Australian skeptic blog, took Lifetime Achievement. Congratulations, Jo.

TallBloke’sTalkShop won the Best European Weblog. Congrats, Roger.

And TheGlobalWarmingPolicyFoundation won the Best Weblog About Politics. Congratulations, Bennie.

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Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans

UPDATE (April 6, 2014): I’ve added a link to a follow-up post about the cause of the observed C-shaped warming pattern in the Pacific.

# # #

The climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive are supposed to be simulations of Earth’s climate, but the simulated sea surface temperatures of the models used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report are definitely not of this planet. 70% of the Earth is covered by oceans, seas and lakes. Because the models show no skill at being able to simulate the rates of warming and cooling of the surfaces of the global oceans over the past 32+ years, and because the models show no skill at being able to reproduce the spatial patterns of that warming and cooling, all of which drive temperature and precipitation patterns on land, then any and all projections of future climate are based on modeled worlds that have no similarity to the real world. In other words, climate model projections are meaningless.

This post will serve as the model-data comparison for satellite-era sea surface temperature anomalies for this year.  This is an expanded version. It provides a couple of answers for why the models perform so poorly when attempting to simulate the surface temperatures of the global oceans.

 

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Posted in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, El Nino-La Nina Processes, Model-Data Comparison SST | 15 Comments

ENSO Update – March 2014

Just about all indicators are pointing to a moderately strong El Niño for the 2014/15 ENSO season. See the NOAA weekly ENSO update dated March 24, 2014. The subsurface temperature anomalies along the equatorial Pacific associated with the downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave are quite warm. See the cross sections on page 11 of the update:

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Posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 7 Comments

GISS LOTI & NCDC Global Temperature Data Drop in February 2014

This post will serve as February 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) Temperature Anomaly Update

First GISS:  Global surface temperatures, as represented by the GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) data, dropped about 0.25 deg C from January to February 2014. See Figure 1. While month-to-month variations of that magnitude are not unusual, it stands out like a sore thumb sitting there on the end…and helps to draw the eye to the absence of warming since the turn of the century.

01 GISS

Figure 1 – GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index

The following .gif animation presents the January and February 2014 global surface temperature anomaly maps from the GISS map-making webpage.  The new option of Robinson projections does a reasonable job of reducing the relative importance of the poles.
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Posted in GISS, HADCRUT4, LOST Update, NCDC | 10 Comments

The Climate Change Express: Ignoring Your Views at Every Meal

Bob Tisdale:

Donna Laframboise at her best!

Originally posted on NoFrakkingConsensus:

Ordinary people don’t care about climate change. How many times do they have to say so?

west-virginia-train

photo credit: John Collier, The American Memory Collection (click)

Imagine you’re on a multi-day train ride. Perhaps you’re crossing Australia. Or Africa. Perhaps you’re retracing the historic Orient Express route, from Istanbul to Calais.

At every meal you’re handed a menu with three choices: chicken, beef, or vegetarian. And at every meal the waiters serve everyone on the train the vegetarian option.

It doesn’t matter how clearly, loudly, or politely you speak when placing your order. It doesn’t matter whether you tip the waiters generously or not at all – the result is always the same.

The train is an alternate universe in which your input is ritually requested and then ritually ignored. No matter how many times (or in how many languages) those in charge are reminded that the vast majority…

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On Chylek et al (2014) – The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a Dominant Factor of Oceanic Influence on Climate

I was advised of a recent paper that studies the impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on global surface temperatures since 1900.  (Thanks, Anthony.) The paper is Chylek et al. (2014) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate.  The paper is flawed in some respects, but many skeptics will agree with it because it questions the value of climate model projections.

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Posted in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Climate Model Failings, El Nino-La Nina Processes | 9 Comments

February 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

MONTHLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP

The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for February 2013.  It was downloaded from the NOMADS website. The contour levels are set at 0.5 deg C, and white is set at zero.

CTEST139533450924246

February 2013 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.207 deg C)

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Posted in SST Update | 14 Comments

It Isn’t How Climate Scientists Communicated their Message; It’s the Message

Over the past few months, there have been a number of articles about how the climate science community could have presented their message differently, or responded differently, so that they could have avoided the problem they’re now facing with the halt in global warming.  Example: the problems with communications by climate scientists to the public were the subject of a recent editorial, and linked webpages, at Nature Climate Change titled Scientist communicators.  In reading it, you’ll find the editorial is really nothing more than a rephrasing of manmade-global-warming dogma.

One of the climate science community’s primary problems was a very basic message…an intentionally misleading message.  That is, it wasn’t how it was communicated; it was the message itself.  I ran across that message again as I was searching for links for a chapter on atmospheric temperatures for my upcoming book The Oceans Ate My Global Warming.  It appeared on the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) Climate Analysis webpage. That webpage includes data that runs through 2013 in many cases, so it’s relatively new. Under the heading of TROPOSPERIC TEMPERATURE, RSS write (my boldface):

Over the past decade, we have been collaborating with Ben Santer at LLNL (along with numerous other investigators) to compare our tropospheric results with the predictions of climate models.  Our results can be summarized as follows:

  • Over the past 35 years, the troposphere has warmed significantly.  The global average temperature has risen at an average rate of about 0.13 degrees Kelvin per decade (0.23 degrees F per decade).
  • Climate models cannot explain this warming if human-caused increases in greenhouse gases are not included as input to the model simulation. Continue reading
Posted in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, CAGW Proponent Arguments, Climate Model Failings, Model-Data Comparison SST | 8 Comments

PRELIMINARY February 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Update

GENERAL NOTES – BOILERPLATE

The February 2014 Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data through the NOAA NOMADS website won’t be official until Monday, March 10,, 2014. Refer to the schedule on the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Frequently Asked Questions webpage. The following are the preliminary Global and NINO3.4 SST anomalies for February 2014 that the NOMADS website prepares based on incomplete data for the month. I’ve also included the weekly data through the week centered on February 26, 2014, but I’ve shortened the span of the weekly data. As noted in the recent mid-April 2013 update, I’ve started using February 2001 so that the variations can be seen AND so that you can see how “flat” global sea surface temperature anomalies have been since then.

The base years for anomalies are 1971-2000, which are the standard base years from the NOAA NOMADS website for this dataset.

PRELIMINARY MONTHLY DATA

The preliminary global sea surface temperature anomalies are presently at about +0.2 deg C.  Based on the preliminary data, they basically remained the same (an increase of about +0.01 deg C) since January.

Monthly Global

Monthly Global SST Anomalies

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Posted in SST Update | 21 Comments