The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 17 – Is There Still Hope for a Moderate El Niño?

I’ll provide the September update in a week or so, but I found the following interesting.

According to the animation of subsurface temperature anomalies along the equatorial Pacific, which is available from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomaly Animation webpage, another downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave may be forming in the western tropical Pacific…without an offsetting upwelling (cool) Kelvin wave between this one and the last.

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Posted in 2014-15 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 15 Comments

California Drought – A Novel Statistical Analysis of Unrealistic Climate Models and of a Reanalysis That Should Not Be Equated with Reality

UPDATE:  See the update at the end of the post.

In the post The Obvious Failures of Climate Science That Mainstream Media Ignores, I promised to discuss the paper behind the National Science Foundation press release Cause of California drought linked to climate change. That paper was Swain et al. (2014) “The Extraordinary California Drought of 2013/2014: Character, Context and the Role of Climate Change”. It is included in the Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS report) Vol. 95, No. 9, September 2014, Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 From A Climate Perspective.

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Posted in Alarmism, Climate Model Failings, Drought, Model-Data Comparison SST | 13 Comments

Mind-Boggling

Totally off topic for this blog, I was skimming through the U.S. news at Google, when I came upon this headline:

Grocery worker hid $1,200 worth of meat in pants, police say

The CBSNews article then starts:

CROTON-ON-HUDSON, N.Y. - A New York supermarket employee is accused of leaving the store with $1,200 worth of meat hidden in his pants.

Let your imaginations run wild with that.  It’s magically funny.

Is that a cow in your pocket, or are you…?

Short article here.

Posted in Off Topic - Funny | 3 Comments

The Obvious Failures of Climate Science That Mainstream Media Ignores

The National Science Foundation press release Cause of California drought linked to climate change found its way into the mainstream media, with science reporters around the globe adding their hype. That press release is based on the recently published study Swain et al. (2014) “The Extraordinary California Drought of 2013/2014: Character, Context and the Role of Climate Change”, which can be found in the Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS report)Vol. 95, No. 9, September 2014, Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 From A Climate Perspective.

I’ll publish a few comments about Swain et al. (2014) in a few days. But this post is not about that paper.

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Posted in Alarmism, Climate Model Failings, Weather Event Hype | 12 Comments

NOAA NOMADS Appears to be Down…For Service?

UPDATE, a week later (Monday, October 6):  NOMADS is still down. I emailed one of the NOAA scientists who deal with the Reynolds OI SST data and I’m awaiting a reply. I’ll let you know.

# # #

This weekend, I have had no success reaching the NOAA NOMAD1 server…

http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

…or the NOMAD3 server (which had not been accessible for a few months)…

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite=

…for Reynolds sea surface temperature data.

I suspect NOMAD1 is down for service. Hopefully, one of them will be back online tomorrow, Monday, September 29. Otherwise, the preliminary sea surface temperature update will be delayed.

Posted in SST Update | 13 Comments

More Than 310 Thousand People with Skewed Priorities Flood New York

The numbers are rolling in…and they’re impressive in a odd way. Based on numerous news reports, somewhere in the neighborhood of 310 to 400 thousand people participated in the People’s Climate March on Sunday, September 21, 2014 in New York City.  The parade was, of course, a precursor for the U.N. Climate Summit 2014, which begins tomorrow.

Yet the results of the U.N.’s Global Survey for a Better World, also known as MyWorld2015, show “Action taken on Climate Change” at the very bottom…the abyss…of things that matter most to families around the globe. See the screencap below. Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Comments

A former White House science advisor speaks out about “settled science”

Bob Tisdale:

This is an excellent summary of the state of climate science, well written by Steven Koonin, former advisor to Obama.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Feeling unsettled? Try new Climate Science™, now with extra certainty!
HistoryOfSettledScience-big1[1]

Climate Science Is Not Settled

We are very far from the knowledge needed to make good climate policy, writes leading scientist Steven E. Koonin

The idea that “Climate science is settled” runs through today’s popular and policy discussions. Unfortunately, that claim is misguided. It has not only distorted our public and policy debates on issues related to energy, greenhouse-gas emissions and the environment. But it also has inhibited the scientific and policy discussions that we need to have about our climate future.

My training as a computational physicist—together with a 40-year career of scientific research, advising and management in academia, government and the private sector—has afforded me an extended, up-close perspective on climate science. Detailed technical discussions during the past year with leading climate scientists have given me an even better sense of what we know, and don’t know, about…

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Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Saving Civilization: 2009 vs 2015

Bob Tisdale:

If “‘We have hours’ to prevent climate disaster” why is the Elizabeth May laughing? [See the screencap of the last article  in Donna's post.] Has the thought of it driven Elizabeth May bonkers?

Originally posted on NoFrakkingConsensus:

Five years ago, we were told that the 2009 Copenhagen climate summit was the last chance to save civilization. As the 2015 Paris summit approaches, the same sort of fear mongering is ramping up.

Earlier this week, a climate declaration published as a full-page ad in the international edition of New York Times tried to frighten us. It told us that:

the UN Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015 may be the last chance to agree a treaty capable of saving civilization; [bold added]

The declaration insisted that global warming may “cause the very fabric of civilization to crash.” It said charitable foundations should therefore divert resources away from other projects – presumably building hospitals and schools, preventing blindness and malaria, ensuring basic sanitation – in order to “save civilization” from the climate scourge.

Problem is, we’ve heard this before. Not so very long ago, the British Prime…

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Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

August 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

This post provides an update of the data for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature data—GISS through August 2014 and HADCRUT4 and NCDC through July 2014—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature data (RSS and UAH) through August 2014.

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Posted in GISS, HADCRUT4, LOST Update, Lower Troposphere Temperature, NCDC, TLT Update | 1 Comment

GISS Tweaks the Short-Term Global Temperature Trend Upwards

SEE UPDATE 2 AT END OF POST

GISS released its August 2014 global surface temperature data today. As I was preparing the graphs for the August 2014 s4urface and lower troposphere temperature update, I noticed a sizeable jump in the short-term trend in the GISS data. (I’ll try to post the full update this evening.)  The August GISS LOTI value is higher than July, but it should not have had that much of an effect on the trend for the period of January 1998 to present. Not too surprisingly, much of the increase in trend was caused by adjustments to data from 2000 to 2013.

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Posted in GISS, LOST Update | 8 Comments