The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 18 – October 2014 Update – One Last Chance?

This year started off with a subsurface weather event below the surface of the tropical Pacific that made researchers and global warming alarmists hope for a super-duper El Niño in 2014.  Sadly, things didn’t work out for them.  The trade winds refused to cooperate.  Now, there are replays taking place below the Pacific that could (<–crucial word) lead to an El Niño for the 2014/15 ENSO season.

This post provides an update on the progress of the evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño (assuming one forms) with data through the beginning of October 2014. The post is similar in layout to the earlier updates. (See the entire 2014/15 El Niño series of posts here.) The post includes 3 gif animations and 13 illustrations so the post might take a few moments to load on your browser.  Please click on the illustrations and animations to enlarge them.

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Posted in 2014-15 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 8 Comments

Maybe It’s Time We Stopped Wasting Money Studying a Problem And Spent That Money Adapting to It

The Washington Post published an article today titled When sea levels rise, high tides will spill into communities far more often, study says.

What a revelation!  It’s almost as foolish as the studies that cost taxpayers tens of thousands of dollars to tell us that heat waves will occur more often (and cold spells less often) in a warming world.  A grade schooler could figure those things out.

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Posted in Alarmism, Sea Level | 13 Comments

Open Letter to Miriam O’Brien of HotWhopper (a.k.a. Sou)

UPDATE: Miriam responded in depth (?). See update at end of post for links.

# # #

Date: October 5, 2014

Subject: Thank You for Admitting You Were Clueless

From: Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations and Regular Contributor at WattsUpWithThat

To: Miriam O’Brien – HotWhopper (a.k.a. Sou from Bundangawoolarangeera)

Dear Miriam:

I wanted to thank you for admitting you had little grasp of the subject matter in a recent post at your blog HotWhopper. Your post was Human influence on the Californian drought. (Archived version is here, just in case you decide to change your post.) Under the heading of “Disclaimer and further reading” you wrote (my boldface):

I make no assurances that I’ve interpreted the work properly. I think I’ve got the gist of it but please point out if you think I’ve gone astray anywhere.

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Posted in CAGW Proponent Arguments, HotWhopper | 31 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 17 – Is There Still Hope for a Moderate El Niño?

I’ll provide the September update in a week or so, but I found the following interesting.

According to the animation of subsurface temperature anomalies along the equatorial Pacific, which is available from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomaly Animation webpage, another downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave may be forming in the western tropical Pacific…without an offsetting upwelling (cool) Kelvin wave between this one and the last.

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Posted in 2014-15 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 15 Comments

California Drought – A Novel Statistical Analysis of Unrealistic Climate Models and of a Reanalysis That Should Not Be Equated with Reality

UPDATE:  See the update at the end of the post.

In the post The Obvious Failures of Climate Science That Mainstream Media Ignores, I promised to discuss the paper behind the National Science Foundation press release Cause of California drought linked to climate change. That paper was Swain et al. (2014) “The Extraordinary California Drought of 2013/2014: Character, Context and the Role of Climate Change”. It is included in the Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS report) Vol. 95, No. 9, September 2014, Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 From A Climate Perspective.

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Posted in Alarmism, Climate Model Failings, Drought, Model-Data Comparison SST | 13 Comments

Mind-Boggling

Totally off topic for this blog, I was skimming through the U.S. news at Google, when I came upon this headline:

Grocery worker hid $1,200 worth of meat in pants, police say

The CBSNews article then starts:

CROTON-ON-HUDSON, N.Y. - A New York supermarket employee is accused of leaving the store with $1,200 worth of meat hidden in his pants.

Let your imaginations run wild with that.  It’s magically funny.

Is that a cow in your pocket, or are you…?

Short article here.

Posted in Off Topic - Funny | 3 Comments

The Obvious Failures of Climate Science That Mainstream Media Ignores

The National Science Foundation press release Cause of California drought linked to climate change found its way into the mainstream media, with science reporters around the globe adding their hype. That press release is based on the recently published study Swain et al. (2014) “The Extraordinary California Drought of 2013/2014: Character, Context and the Role of Climate Change”, which can be found in the Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS report)Vol. 95, No. 9, September 2014, Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 From A Climate Perspective.

I’ll publish a few comments about Swain et al. (2014) in a few days. But this post is not about that paper.

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Posted in Alarmism, Climate Model Failings, Weather Event Hype | 12 Comments

NOAA NOMADS Appears to be Down…For Service?

UPDATE, a week later (Monday, October 6):  NOMADS is still down. I emailed one of the NOAA scientists who deal with the Reynolds OI SST data and I’m awaiting a reply. I’ll let you know.

# # #

This weekend, I have had no success reaching the NOAA NOMAD1 server…

http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

…or the NOMAD3 server (which had not been accessible for a few months)…

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite=

…for Reynolds sea surface temperature data.

I suspect NOMAD1 is down for service. Hopefully, one of them will be back online tomorrow, Monday, September 29. Otherwise, the preliminary sea surface temperature update will be delayed.

Posted in SST Update | 13 Comments

More Than 310 Thousand People with Skewed Priorities Flood New York

The numbers are rolling in…and they’re impressive in a odd way. Based on numerous news reports, somewhere in the neighborhood of 310 to 400 thousand people participated in the People’s Climate March on Sunday, September 21, 2014 in New York City.  The parade was, of course, a precursor for the U.N. Climate Summit 2014, which begins tomorrow.

Yet the results of the U.N.’s Global Survey for a Better World, also known as MyWorld2015, show “Action taken on Climate Change” at the very bottom…the abyss…of things that matter most to families around the globe. See the screencap below. Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Comments

A former White House science advisor speaks out about “settled science”

Bob Tisdale:

This is an excellent summary of the state of climate science, well written by Steven Koonin, former advisor to Obama.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Feeling unsettled? Try new Climate Science™, now with extra certainty!
HistoryOfSettledScience-big1[1]

Climate Science Is Not Settled

We are very far from the knowledge needed to make good climate policy, writes leading scientist Steven E. Koonin

The idea that “Climate science is settled” runs through today’s popular and policy discussions. Unfortunately, that claim is misguided. It has not only distorted our public and policy debates on issues related to energy, greenhouse-gas emissions and the environment. But it also has inhibited the scientific and policy discussions that we need to have about our climate future.

My training as a computational physicist—together with a 40-year career of scientific research, advising and management in academia, government and the private sector—has afforded me an extended, up-close perspective on climate science. Detailed technical discussions during the past year with leading climate scientists have given me an even better sense of what we know, and don’t know, about…

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Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments