The supposed impact of global warming on the Gulf of Maine over the past decade has hit a multitude of media outlets. Example: take Weather.com’s article Global Warming Is Changing the Gulf of Maine, Imperiling Its Lobster, Fish Catch. According to the article, Gulf of Maine temperatures were marching along with the global average from 1982 to 2004, but then over the past decade, starting in 2004, the Gulf of Maine began warming at a rate that was 10 times faster than the previous rate.
So let’s take a look at the sea surface temperature data for the Gulf of Maine, and see what story they have to tell.
Preliminary Note: An “alarmism warning” indicates alarmism is imminent. On the other hand, an “alarmism watch” indicates alarmism might occur, but that’s all the time.
We’re not just talking a record high for the month of August…we’re talking a record high for any month during the satellite era. I suspect our alarmist friends will be making all sorts of claims about attribution even though climate models still almost double the observed rate of ocean surface warming during the satellite era.
Judith Curry and Gavin Schmidt are arguing once again about how much of the global warming we’ve experienced since 1950 is attributable to human-induced global warming. Judith’s argument was presented in her post The 50-50 argument at ClimateEtc (where this morning there were more than 700 comments…wow…so that thread may take a few moments to download.) Gavin’s response can be found at the RealClimate post IPCC attribution statements redux: A response to Judith Curry.
Richard Betts heads the Climate Impacts area of the UK Met Office. The first bullet point on his webpage under areas of expertise describes his work as a climate modeler. He was one of the lead authors of the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report (WG2). On a recent thread at Andrew Montford’s BishopHill blog, Dr. Betts left a remarkable comment that downplayed the importance of climate models.
The peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season is rapidly approaching. See the NOAA Hurricane Climatology graph to the right. (Give it a click for a full-sized version.) Hurricane frequency tends to peak in mid-September.
In the May 2014 post Hurricane Development Region Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies as We Start the 2014 Season, we presented sea surface temperature anomalies for the Main Development Region (10N-20N, 80W-20W) and for the Gulf of Mexico (21N-31N, 98W-81W) in 3 formats: (1) monthly long-term (1854 to present), (2) monthly satellite-era (1981 to present) and (3) weekly satellite-era (1990 to present). In this post, we’ll only update the weekly data, and we’ll add the data for the Caribbean (10N-20N, 84W-60W) and the Extratropical Eastern Coastal Waters of the United States (24N-40N, 80W-70W). (A map showing where those regions are located is included as the final illustration.)
Numerous scientific papers have reported the hiatus in global surface warming will end with the next El Niño event. But according to a new paper by Chen and Tung published today online in ScienceMag (link to paper follows), that’s not going to happen because the multidecadal variations in ocean heat sequestration at depth in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans will suppress surface warming for a decade or two more. Additionally, unlike many other papers of its kind, Chen and Tung (2014) indicate a lessening in ocean heat sequestration to depth (the reverse of what we’re seeing now) was responsible for the accelerated warming during the latter part of the 20th Century.
Looking at Chen and Tung (2014) in a different light, they went looking for Trenberth’s missing heat, and, not surprisingly, they found it in the same ocean heat content reanalysis (ECMWF ORAS-4) used in Balmaseda et al. (2013), which Trenberth co-authored.
This post provides an update of the data for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature data—GISS through July 2014 and HADCRUT4 and NCDC through June 2014—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature data (RSS and UAH) through July 2014.
The map to the above right shows the July 2014 surface temperature anomalies. Please click on it for a full-sized version. The map is available through the GISS map-making webpage.
NOAA’s State of the Climate Report for June 2014 included the bullet point under global highlights (my boldface):
For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the highest for June on record and the highest departure from average for any month.
Yikes, it sounds as though it’s a manmade global warming problem. But we know that’s not true because climate models doubled the warming rate of global sea surface temperatures for the past 3+ decades. So even record highs are much better than the temperatures anticipated by the latest and greatest climate models. As an advanced warning, NOAA will be making a similar statement for July 2014. See the graphs to the right. (Click for full size.) The red horizontal lines are the July 2014 values. NOAA bases their discussions on the ERSST.v3b-based data (bottom graph). The satellite-enhanced Reynolds OI.v2 dataset (top graph) serves as a reference. Yup, it’s true. July 2014 global sea surface temperatures are the warmest on record, too.
In this post, we’ll present which ocean basin is showing the elevated sea surface temperature anomalies, and where they’re showing it, and provide what will likely be eventually reported as the reasons for those warm temperatures: strong trade winds and persistent high sea level pressures over eastern Siberia and Alaska.