UPDATE (July 14, 2014): Unisys is once again providing daily sea surface temperature anomaly updates.
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Near the first of this month, the NOAA National Weather Service discontinued the sea surface temperature dataset used by Unisys to create their daily sea surface temperature and sea surface temperature anomaly maps. As a result, Unisys has been unable to update those maps. Many persons enjoyed studying the animations (see current sample to the right) because of the color coding of temperature anomalies, in which blues and greens extended into the realm of positive anomalies.
So where can you turn now for your daily fix of peaceful and calming shades of blue?
This post updates the data for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature data—GISS through May 2014 and HADCRUT4 and NCDC through April 2014—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based global lower troposphere temperature data (RSS and UAH) through May 2014.
Attached here is a pdf copy of the Table of Contents of my upcoming book, which is presently titled The Flaws, Not Just the Pause. I’m looking for feedback. Basically, at this point in the process, what topics have I overlooked? Please comment, and please do it on this thread. If you were to comment elsewhere, I might miss them. Wouldn’t want that.
I had hoped to have the book finished by September, but that completion time is slipping fast.
UPDATE: NOAA has corrected the typos in the illustrations at the new reanalysis intercomparison website.
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NOAA opened two new blogs recently…and a new reanalysis intercomparison website, with a plethora of ENSO-related illustrations.
THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
The monthly sea surface temperature anomalies across the entire central and eastern equatorial Pacific have reached El Niño conditions with anomalies in excess of +0.5 deg C. While El Niño conditions exist now, we are presently not experiencing an “official” El Niño event. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific must remain at the elevated levels for a number of months before NOAA proclaims an “official” El Niño event. Keep in mind, last year in 2013, the equatorial Pacific fluctuated back and forth between positive and negative anomalies, and that 3 months ago the eastern equatorial Pacific was experiencing La Niña-like conditions. Sea surface temperature anomalies for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have increased drastically in those 3 months in response to westerly wind bursts, the Kelvin wave, and the resulting upwelling of the warmer-than-normal subsurface waters. See the 2014/15 El Niño series of posts, starting at the first one, for a detailed discussion of the evolution of this likely El Niño.
The NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for May 2014 are just above the +0.5 deg C threshold of El Nino conditions. They are presently at +0.54 deg C, having risen about 0.2 deg C in the last month.
(2) NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Monthly Change = +0.212 deg C
Near the end of the June 3rd post The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 10 – June 2014 Update – Still Waiting for the Feedbacks, I discussed that misinformation about the developing El Niño would the topic of an upcoming post. Part 10 was cross posted at WattsUpWithThat a day later. We’ve already had misinformation as the topic for the second post in that series (see The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 2 – The Alarmist Misinformation (BS) Begins) and there has been enough fuel since then for another post. In Part 10, I wrote (my boldface): There are a couple of recent posts by an alarmist and one by a reporter (whose error may have been unintentional) that provide food for a post. RobertScribbler is always full of misinformation. (More examples here and here. I wonder if he’s vying for a job with Joe Romm.)…
I was somewhat surprised by RobertScribbler’s frankness in his response to my comment.
This post provides an update on the progress of the early evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño with data through the end of May 2014. The post is similar in layout to the May update. The post includes 5 gif animations and 16 illustrations so the post might take a few moments to load on your browser. Please click on the illustrations and animations to enlarge them.
The SkepticalScience animation The Escalator has been around for a couple of years, and it has appeared in dozens of their posts and in blog posts by other carbon dioxide-obsessed alarmists. Their intent with The Escalator animation was to show that the instrument temperature record includes many short-term absences of global warming, while, in their minds, manmade greenhouse gases caused the long-term trend of global warming. With Kevin Trenberth now saying strong El Niño events caused global warming to occur in steps, SkepticalScience needs to revise their escalator animation. The steps are not only how skeptics view global warming…one of the leading ENSO and global warming researchers is now presenting global warming in El Niño-caused big jumps, and he also has written in at least two peer-reviewed papers that El Niños are fueled by sunlight.
So here’s my suggested replacement for SkepticalScience’s The Escalator. For lack of a better title, we’ll call it…
NINO REGION SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
The sea surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific are elevated. The following are the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for the 4 most-often-used NINO regions for the week of May 21st. From west to east:
- NINO4 (5S-5N, 160E-150W) = +0.97
- NINO3.4 (5S-5N, 170W-120W) = +0.62
- NINO3 (5S-5N, 150W-90W) = +0.70
- NINO1+2 (10S-0, 90W-80W) = +1.39
GENERAL NOTES – BOILERPLATE
The May 2014 Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data through the NOAA NOMADS website won’t be official until Monday, June 8,, 2014. Refer to the schedule on the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Frequently Asked Questions webpage. The following are the preliminary Global and NINO3.4 SST anomalies for May 2014 that the NOMADS website prepares based on incomplete data for the month. I’ve also included the weekly data through the week centered on May 21, 2014, but I’ve shortened the span of the weekly data. As noted in the recent mid-May 2013 update, I’ve started using 2001 for the start of the graphs of the weekly data so that the variations can be seen AND so that you can see how “flat” global sea surface temperature anomalies have been since then. The base years for anomalies are 1971-2000, which are the standard base years from the NOAA NOMADS website for this dataset.