Gone Fishin’

In reality, I’ve got family in town for the holidays.  I’ll try to moderate comments a few times a day, though.   I’ll be back to a normal schedule on Sunday.

To everyone near the path of the hurricane, Stay Safe!!!


Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments

Tropical Storm Arthur – There Is Nothing Unusual About the Sea Surface Temperatures Off the East Coast of the U.S.

Map 1

UPDATE (July 2, 2014):  See the correction at the end of the post.

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This post was prepared in anticipation of the usual nonsense we hear whenever a tropical storm or hurricane forms and is expected to strike the U.S.  The map to the right (Map 1) presents the weekly sea surface temperatures (not anomalies) for the Eastern U.S. Coastal Waters from Florida to Massachusetts (26N-42N, 82W-70W), for the week centered on Wednesday June 25,2014. (Please click the map to enlarge it.)  Seasonally warmed sea surface temperatures from the east coast of Florida northwards to North Carolina are well above the 26 deg C (79 deg F) value needed to generate and maintain tropical storms and hurricanes.

Before we look at the recent sea surface temperature anomalies, let examine longer-term data to put it in context.

Continue reading

Posted in Hurricanes, SST Update | 4 Comments

IRI Blog Post – Eight Misconceptions About El Niño (and La Niña)

Yesterday, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) published a post about a number of mistaken beliefs about El Niño and La Niña events.

Misconceptions discussed: Continue reading

Posted in 2014-15 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes | 11 Comments

PRELIMINARY June 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Update


The sea surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific continue be above the threshold of El Niño condition, though two regions  (NINO4 and NINO1+2) show recent drops in surface temperatures. The following are the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for the 4 most-often-used NINO regions for the week of June 25th.  From west to east:

  • NINO4 (5S-5N, 160E-150W) = +0.72
  • NINO3.4 (5S-5N, 170W-120W) = +0.67
  • NINO3 (5S-5N, 150W-90W) = +1.06
  • NINO1+2 (10S-0, 90W-80W) = +1.38

I’ll present that weekly data in a number of ways later in the post.

Continue reading

Posted in SST Update | 6 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 11 – Is the El Niño Dying?

There’s still a possibility the 2014/15 El Niño could die even though it had so much promise just a few months ago.  In this post, we’ll compare a few indicators now to where they were 2 months ago at the start of the El Niño enthusiasm.  Some of them show an off-season event quickly drawing to a close.  We’ll examine other metrics that show the El Niño may not be done yet.  And we’ll look at data for a couple of occasions when El Niños looked promising in the first part of the year and then failed to form into a full-fledged El Niño during the remainder. One year, we were coming out of back-to-back La Niñas and the ENSO models predicted an El Niño, and for the other year, El Niño conditions evolved early, like this year, but then retreated over the rest of the year.

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Posted in 2014-15 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 23 Comments

The Unisys Daily Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Maps May Be Gone


UPDATE (July 14, 2014):  Unisys is once again providing  daily sea surface temperature anomaly updates.

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Near the first of this month, the NOAA National Weather Service discontinued the sea surface temperature dataset used by Unisys to create their daily sea surface temperature and sea surface temperature anomaly maps. As a result, Unisys has been unable to update those maps. Many persons enjoyed studying the animations (see current sample to the right) because of the color coding of temperature anomalies, in which blues and greens extended into the realm of positive anomalies.

So where can you turn now for your daily fix of peaceful and calming shades of blue?

Continue reading

Posted in SST Update | 5 Comments

May 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

This post updates the data for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature data—GISS through May 2014 and HADCRUT4 and NCDC through April 2014—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based global lower troposphere temperature data (RSS and UAH) through May 2014.

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Posted in GISS, HADCRUT4, LOST Update, Lower Troposphere Temperature, NCDC, TLT and LOST Updates, TLT Update, UKMO | 3 Comments

Flashback 1997 – Scientists Forecast Permanent El Ninos.

Bob Tisdale:

Thanks, Paul. I always enjoy things like this. Now we see papers predicting permanent La Nina domination…with periodic super El Ninos. But the models in the CMIP5 archive still can’t simulate basic processes in the tropical Pacific, like Bjerknes feedback, so all predictions are meaningless.

Originally posted on NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT:

By Paul Homewood



Back in 1997, the BBC reported:

Scientists are warning that global warming could make the El Nino a permanent feature of the world’s weather system.

El Nino events normally occur roughly every 5 years, and last for between 12 and 18 months. However unpublished scientific research now suggests that the complex weather systems could occur every 3 years, making them a dominant weather pattern and in effect, almost permanent.

This year’s El Nino has been one of the strongest on record and has led to:

  • Droughts in Australia and Papua New Guinea.
  • Delayed monsoon in South East Asia leaving forest fires to rage out of control, blanketing the region with choking smog.
  • Storms on the Pacific coast of South and Central America from Chile to Mexico.
  • Drought in Southern Africa.
  • Threat of floods in Peru and California

In the last decade there have been 5…

View original 345 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Table of Contents of Book in the Works

Attached here is a pdf copy of the Table of Contents of my upcoming book, which is presently titled The Flaws, Not Just the Pause.  I’m looking for feedback.  Basically, at this point in the process, what topics have I overlooked?  Please comment, and please do it on this thread.  If you were to comment elsewhere, I might miss them.  Wouldn’t want that.

I had hoped to have the book finished by September, but that completion time is slipping fast.


Bob Tisdale

Posted in Essays & Books | 21 Comments

New from NOAA

UPDATE:  NOAA has corrected the typos in the illustrations at the new reanalysis intercomparison website.
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NOAA opened two new blogs recently…and a new reanalysis intercomparison website, with a plethora of ENSO-related illustrations.

Continue reading

Posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes, Hurricanes | 8 Comments