THIS IS A STICKY POST. Newer posts have been published.
I’ve been mentioning my new book in blog posts and comments for well over a year. I’ve finished Part 1, which makes up the majority of it. The best news: IT’S FREE. Click here for a copy (25 MB .pdf).
On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1 includes introductory discussions of 3 primary topics: Continue reading
In the November 17, 2015 post here (WattsUpWithThat cross post here), we discussed the recent alarmist claims by the mainstream media and members of the climate science community about the strength of the current El Niño, showing how and why the 1997/98 El Niño was actually stronger than the one we’re presently experiencing. We clearly illustrated that the El Niño developing this year is focused more toward the central equatorial Pacific…in the NINO3.4 region. That NINO3.4 region was the only region examined by the mainstream media. But those articles overlooked the eastern equatorial Pacific (the NINO3 and NINO1+2 regions), where the El Niño of 1997/98 was noticeably stronger than the current one. (See the map here for the locations of the NINO regions.)
In this post, we’ll return to the NINO3.4 region and present the sea surface temperature anomalies there using the numerous monthly sea surface temperature datasets for the evolution years of the 1982/83 El Niño, the 1997/98 El Niño and the current 2015/16 El Niño through October 2015 for most datasets. Those are the three El Niños with the highest NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies since 1900. We’ll show that:
- There is no agreement among sea surface temperature datasets about the NINO3.4 values for those El Niños,
- There is no agreement about which El Niño is strongest based on the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature data, and,
- Based on the averages of the datasets, the sea surface temperature datasets indicate the El Niño this year is lagging behind the 1997/98 El Niño, but is stronger than the 1982/83 El Nino.
Yesterday, NOAA published its weekly update of the sea surface temperature data for the NINO regions (data here), and because the sea surface temperature anomalies for “a key region” of the equatorial Pacific (the NINO3.4 region) exceeded the weekly values in 1997, alarmists from around the world are claiming the 2015/16 El Niño is the strongest ever, exceeding the strength of the 1997/98 El Niño. Example: the LA Times headline reads El Niño temperatures in Pacific Ocean break 25-year record. The article by Rong-Dong Lin II and Roxanna Xia begins: Continue reading
As one might expect in response to a strong El Niño, the GISS global Land Ocean Temperature Index jumped 0.24 deg C from September to October 2014, raising its value to more than 1.0 deg C above the reference period temperatures for 1951-1980. Continue reading
This is the second part of a two-part series of posts that present chapters from my recently published ebook On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1. The introductory post for the book is here (WattsUpWithThat cross post is here), and the book in pdf format is here (25 MB). Yes, the book is free.
The topic of the first post was What is Global Warming? For this second post, the topic is…
1.5 – What is Climate Change? Continue reading
MONTHLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP
The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for October 2015. It was downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer. The contour range was set to -2.5 to +2.5 deg C and the anomalies are referenced to the WMO-preferred period of 1981-2010.
October 2015 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map
(Global SST Anomaly = +0.438 deg C) Continue reading
This is the first part of a two-part series of posts that present chapters from my recently published ebook On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1. The introductory post for the book is here (WattsUpWithThat cross post is here), and the book in pdf format is here (25 MB). Yes, the book is free.
The topic of this post is What is Global Warming? The second post, to be published next week, is What is Climate Change? Continue reading
This post provides an update of many of the ENSO-related variables we presented as part of last year’s 2014-15 El Niño Series. For the posts this year, we’ve used the evolution years of different El Niños as references to the goings-on this year. This month we’re including the 1997/98 El Niño because it was the strongest El Niño in our short instrument temperature record. For the other reference, we’re using 1987, which is the second year of the 1986/87/88 El Niño. Next month, we’ll compare this year to the El Niños of 1982/83 and 1997/98.
Figure 00 compares NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies for the evolutions of the 1986/87/88 and the 2014/15/16 El Niño. Sea surface temperature anomalies for the NINO3.4 region did reach El Niño conditions in the latter part of 2014 so it’s reasonable to compare the two events.
We can see that 1987 (the second year of the 1986/87/88 El Niño) began with noticeably higher NINO3.4 temperature anomalies than in 2015. However, the 1986/87/88 El Niño started to decay before the usual end-of-year peak in 1987, while the El Niño this year continues to evolve. Continue reading
This post provides an update of the values for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature reconstructions—GISS through September 2015 and HADCRUT4 and NCEI (formerly NCDC) through August 2015—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature composites (RSS and UAH) through September 2015. It also includes a model-data comparison. Continue reading
MONTHLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP
The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for September 2015. It was downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer. The contour range was set to -2.5 to +2.5 deg C.
September 2015 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map
(Global SST Anomaly = +0.429 deg C)
Note how The Blob continues to relocate. The other hotspot west of Southern California and the Baja Peninsula (Blob Jr., Son of Blob, whatever) continues to intensify. Continue reading