New Book: On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1

THIS IS A STICKY POST. Newer posts have been published.

I’ve been mentioning my new book in blog posts and comments for well over a year. I’ve finished Part 1, which makes up the majority of it. The best news: IT’S FREE.  Click here for a copy (25 MB .pdf).
Cover - Tisdale - On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control

On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1 includes introductory discussions of 3 primary topics: Continue reading

Posted in Essays & Books | 59 Comments

Climate Models Are NOT Simulating Earth’s Climate – Part 1

This post will serve as part 1 of the 2015 update of the model-data comparisons of satellite-era sea surface temperatures. The 2014 update is here. I’ve broken the update into two parts this year.

INTRODUCTION

The locations, the timings and the magnitudes of the naturally occurring variations in the surface temperatures of our oceans are primary factors that drive weather and, in turn, climate on Earth.  In other words, where and when the surfaces of the oceans warm, or cool naturally and by how much—along with other naturally occurring factors—dictate where and when land surface air temperatures warm and cool and where precipitation increases or decreases…on annual, decadal and multidecadal timeframes. Continue reading

Posted in Model-Data Comparison SST, SST Update | 4 Comments

On the Monumental Differences in Warming Rates between Global Sea Surface Temperature Datasets during the NOAA-Picked Global-Warming Hiatus Period of 2000 to 2014

UPDATE:  See the 2 updates under the heading of A QUICK OVERVIEW OF SHIP-BUOY BIAS ADJUSTMENTS.

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Alternate Title:  NOAA Has a Sea Surface Temperature Dataset with an EVEN HIGHER Warming Rate than Their Full-of-Problems ERSST.v4 “Pause-Buster” Data

Whether or not there had been a slowdown in global surface warming before the El Niño of 2015/16 depends on which sea surface temperature dataset researchers elect to use in studies. Even over the full term of the satellite-era of sea surface temperature data, the differences in warming rates can be quite large. Continue reading

Posted in NOAA ERSST.v4, SST Dataset Info | 9 Comments

THE BLOB Seems to Be Disappearing at the Surface – But Will It Reemerge?

Sad to say, I suspect it may reemerge at the surface…maybe not as strong as in the past, but I don’t think it’s going to disappear completely in 2016.  I hope my suspicions are wrong, though.

NOTE:  This post includes two gif animations so it may take a while to load on your browser. Continue reading

Posted in The Blob | 6 Comments

GISS and NOAA to Announce 2015 “Record High” Global Temperatures Today in Joint Media Teleconference

SEE UPDATE 1 AT END OF POST: I’ve provided a link to the slides from the teleconference and updated monthly and annual graphs.

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On January 15th, NOAA Communications notified the media Wednesday: NOAA, NASA to announce official analyses of 2015 global temperature, climate conditions. Continue reading

Posted in Global Temperature Update | 18 Comments

The Oddities in NOAA’s New “Pause-Buster” Sea Surface Temperature Product – An Overview of Past Posts

UPDATE – I changed the title to better reflect the content.

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NOAA revised their global surface temperature product in June 2015 to show more global warming during the post-1998 period. Those data manipulations supposedly ended the slowdown in global warming over that period.  The changes to NOAA’s global ocean surface temperature product were the primary cause of the NOAA’s hiatus-disappearing act. That dataset, NOAA’s new Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature dataset, version 4 (ERSST.v4), received a lot of media and blog attention when NOAA published Karl et al. (2015) Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus back in June 2015.

The new NOAA ERSST.v4 sea surface temperature dataset has since been included in both the NOAA and the GISS global land+ocean surface temperature products. Because the oceans cover about 70% of Earth’s surface, the new NOAA ERSST.v4 data are a critical component.  But there are numerous oddities in the new NOAA “pause-buster” sea surface temperature data.  I’ve published a series of blog posts about those curiosities.  In addition to the post-1998 period, those posts also dealt with oddities found in the earlier data as well.   This article provides a summary of the past posts.  I’ve also added and clarified a few discussions where necessary.

This post confirms that Congressman Lamar Smith should be questioning NOAA’s recent revisions to their sea surface temperature product. Continue reading

Posted in NOAA ERSST.v4 | 7 Comments

How Strong Was That El Niño or La Niña? – No One Knows For Sure

We recently discussed and illustrated how the differences between sea surface temperature datasets prevented us from knowing which of the recent strong El Niño events (the 1982/83, 1997/98 or 2015/16 El Niños) was actually strongest.  See the post here. That post, of course, was intended to counter all of the nonsense from alarmist bloggers and the mainstream media about the current El Niño being the strongest ever.

In this post, we’re going to illustrate the differences between the monthly long-term (1870 to present) NINO3.4 region sea surface temperature anomalies from 5 datasets to further show that the differences grow considerably as we travel back in time.

The post concludes with a recent comment at NOAA’s ENSO blog about the uncertainties of NINO3.4 sea surface temperature data from a well-known and well-respected ENSO researcher. My thanks to Larry Kummer, Editor of the FabiusMaximus blog, for calling my attention to it on the thread here at WattsUpWithThat.

Continue reading

Posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 3 Comments

January 2016 ENSO Update – It Appears the El Niño Has Peaked

This post provides an update of many of the ENSO-related variables we presented as part of last year’s 2014-15 El Niño Series.  For the posts about the 2015/16 El Niño, we’ve used the evolution years of different El Niños as references to the goings-on in 2015.  This month we’re including the 1997/98 El Niño because it was the strongest El Niño in our short instrument temperature record.  For the other reference, we’re using 1982, which was the second strongest El Niño.

INTRODUCTION

There are a number of notable things this month. First, sea surface temperature-based indices and the Southern Oscillation Index indicate the El Niño has peaked. And we discussed in the December update the upwelling Kelvin wave that will be effecting (decreasing) El Niño conditions.  Those indicators do not mean the El Niño will immediately stop impacting weather conditions around the globe. Strong El Niño conditions still exist in the tropical Pacific, and there is still a large volume of El Niño-related warmer-than-normal waters below the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (see animation from GODAS website here). Strong El Niño conditions are likely to exist through February to April and weak El Niño conditions may last until June.  See Figure Supplement-1.   Expect unusual El Niño-caused weather anomalies for many months to come…some bad, some good. Continue reading

Posted in 2015-16 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes | 7 Comments

December 2015 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

MONTHLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP

The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for December 2015.  It was downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer. The contour range was set to -2.5 to +2.5 deg C and the anomalies are referenced to the WMO-preferred period of 1981-2010.

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December 2015 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.45 deg C)

MONTHLY GLOBAL OVERVIEW

Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies rose slightly, an increase of about +0.02 deg C, from November to December. Surface temperature anomalies rose noticeably in the Southern Hemisphere (about +0.06 deg C), but were countered by a lesser decline in the Northern Hemisphere (about -0.02 deg C). Last month, the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans had sizeable increases. The only ocean basins to show cooling were the Arctic, North Pacific (and Pacific as a whole) and Southern Oceans. The El Niño appears to have peaked, but we should expect increases around the globe in delayed responses.  The monthly Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are presently at +0.45 deg C, referenced to the WMO-preferred base years of 1981 to 2010. Continue reading

Posted in SST Update | 2 Comments

Meteorological Year (December to November) Global Temperature Product Comparison through 2015

It should come as no surprise that surface temperature products are showing record highs for the meteorological year of December 2014 to November 2015 and that lower troposphere temperature products are not.   Continue reading

Posted in Global Temperature Update, LOST Update, Lower Troposphere Temperature | 8 Comments

Annual Global Lower Troposphere Temperature (TLT) Anomaly Update – Distant Third Warmest for 2015

As expected, annual global lower troposphere temperature (TLT) anomalies in 2015 for both the RSS and UAH datasets ranked a remote third warmest.  Continue reading

Posted in TLT Update | 10 Comments