eBooks by Bob Tisdale

Sales of my ebooks (and tips) allow me to continue my research into human-induced and natural climate change and to continue to blog here at Climate Observations and at WattsUpWithThat?

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Posted in Essays & Books | 33 Comments

The Conclusions of Press Releases Should Match the Scientific Study, Don’t Ya Think?

UPDATE: Repaired a few typos.

How often do we see this happen—a press release about a scientific study states or suggests that global warming was the cause of a factor being studied, when the paper itself doesn’t come to that conclusion…and/or the data contradict it?

An example crossed my desk yesterday. (Thanks, Anthony.) Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism | 5 Comments

June 2015 ENSO Update – Tropical Pacific Approaching the Threshold of a Strong El Niño

This post provides an update of many of the ENSO-related variables we presented as part of the 2014-15 El Niño Series.  The reference years for comparison graphs in this post are 1997 and 2014, which are the development years of the strongest recent El Niño and the last El Niño.  I have not included animations in this post. In their place, I’ve compared present-day maps from the NOAA GODAS website to the same time in 2014. Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño Was Not Focused on the Region Used By NOAA for their Oceanic NINO Index

UPDATE:  Added the initial note. (And I fixed the formatting.  Not sure what happened there, but I lost all of the paragraph breaks.)

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And that’s why the 2014/15 El Niño appears so weak…and has disappeared from NOAA’s Oceanic NINO Index with their new ERSST.v4 data.  If we look at the tropical Pacific as a whole though, the 2014/15 El Niño was a relatively strong El Niño—stronger than many El Niños during the satellite era. This post reinforces a few of the points made in the December 2014 post Did ENSO and the “Monster” Kelvin Wave Contribute to the Record High Global Sea Surface Temperatures in 2014? Continue reading

Posted in ENSO Update | 5 Comments

Weak El Niños and La Niñas Come and Go from NOAA’s Oceanic NINO Index (ONI) with Each SST Dataset Revision

Back in April of this year NOAA added the 2014/15 El Niño to their Oceanic NINO Index (a.k.a. ONI). See the former version of ONI here. Last week, with NOAA’s switch to their new Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature dataset version 4 (ERSST.v4), the 2014/15 El Niño has now disappeared from their list of “official” El Niño and La Niña events. See the present (ERSST.v4) version of ONI here.

But the 2014/15 El Niño isn’t the only ENSO event to have disappeared from ONI with the change to the new ERSST.v4 dataset.  Continue reading

Posted in ENSO Update | 14 Comments

ClimateProgress’s Joe Romm Is Promoting a Skeptical View of Global Warming: El Niño-Caused Steps

(And another proposal to Kevin Trenberth about us co-authoring a paper.)

I wasn’t too surprised to find Joe Romm’s June 16, 2015 blog post 2015 May Bring Long-Awaited Step Jump in Global Temperatures at the climate alarmist website ClimateProgress. For more than 2 years, his buddy Kevin Trenberth of NCAR has been promoting El Niño-caused upward steps in global surface temperatures.  But what Romm fails to recognize: a skeptic was the first to note this is how, when and why much of the global surface warming has occurred since the early 1980s.  Joe also fails to tell his readers that El Niño events are fueled by sunlight, according to Kevin Trenberth.

Joe Romm’s post also includes a classic sleight of hand and a reference to a dataset that even climate scientists are skeptical of.  Let’s dismantle his blog post. Continue reading

Posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes, Kevin Trenberth | 14 Comments

NOAA Releases New Pause-Buster Global Surface Temperature Data and Immediately Claims Record-High Temps for May 2015 – What a Surprise!

NOAA published their State of the Climate Report today for May 2015. Under the heading of Global Summary Information, they note:

Note: With this report and data release, the National Centers for Environmental Information is transitioning to improved versions of its global land (GHCN-M version 3.3.0) and ocean (ERSST version 4.0.0) datasets. Please note that anomalies and ranks reflect the historical record according to these updated versions. Historical months and years may differ from what was reported in previous reports. For more, please visit the associated FAQ and supplemental information.

Continue reading

Posted in LOST Update, NCDC, NOAA SOTC | 6 Comments

May 2015 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly & Model-Data Difference Update

This post provides an update of the data for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature data—GISS through May 2015 and HADCRUT4 and NCEI (formerly NCDC) through April 2015—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature data (RSS and UAH) through May 2015. Continue reading

Posted in LOST Update, TLT and LOST Updates, TLT Update | 6 Comments

Early Hansen Co-authored Paper Notes “global mean temperature was perhaps 1 deg C warmer than today”

While doing some research for my upcoming book, I was rummaging through early papers on sea level data at the CU Sea Level Library.  I found there the 1982 paper Global Sea Level Trend in the Past Century by Gornitz, Lebedeff and Hansen, all of NASA’s GISS.  I enjoyed a brief mention of past global temperature it contained and thought you might enjoy it and another statement, too.

While presenting the typical alarmist conjecture about the possible collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, they made a statement that is atypical of alarmists: Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, GISS | 2 Comments

May 2015 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update


The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for May 2015.  It was downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer. The contour range was set to -2.5 to +2.5 deg C.

0 Map

May 2015 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.291 deg C) Continue reading

Posted in SST Update | 18 Comments

Open Letter to Tom Karl of NOAA/NCEI Regarding “Hiatus Busting” Paper

UPDATE: See the note at the end of the post.

Date: June 10, 2015

Subject: Karl et al. (2015) Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus and the Sea Surface Data that Support It

From: Bob Tisdale – Independent Researcher

To: Tom Karl – Director NOAA/NCEI

Dear Tom: I’m writing to you with respect to the recent paper, of which you were lead author. The paper is, of course, Karl et al. (2015) Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus (paywalled.) It presented the impacts on the recent slowdown in surface temperature warming of the not-yet-implemented changes to the NOAA/NCEI global land+ocean surface temperature dataset. The changes to the ocean surface portion (the NOAA ERSST.v4 sea surface temperature reconstruction), not the land surface portion, played the larger role in your findings. The changes to that sea surface temperature data are supported by the papers:

The intent of this letter to present when and how the new NOAA sea surface temperature data differ during the hiatus from the night marine air temperature data, upon which it is based, which are used for bias adjustments over the term of the data. Continue reading

Posted in Hiatus, SST Dataset Info, The Pause | 12 Comments