eBooks by Bob Tisdale

Sales of my ebooks (and tips) allow me to continue my research into human-induced and natural climate change and to continue to blog here at Climate Observations and at WattsUpWithThat?

Continue reading

Posted in Essays & Books | 33 Comments

Climate Models Fail: Global Ocean Heat Content (Based on TOA Energy Imbalance)

OVERVIEW   

I recently presented the modeled energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) in the post No Consensus: Earth’s Top of Atmosphere Energy Imbalance in CMIP5-Archived (IPCC AR5) Climate Models.  As you’ll recall, there was a very wide spread in the individual model simulations of the TOA energy imbalance.  (See Figure 13 from that post.)  I’ve shortened the timeframe to 1955-2014 in Figure 1, which is the period for which ocean heat content data are available from the NODC.

Figure 1

Figure 1

Ponder that graph for a moment. The average TOA energy imbalance (red curve) in recent years is in the expected range…the range we’ve been told by the climate science community. Example:  According to Trenberth et al. (2014) Earth’s Energy Imbalance:

All estimates (OHC and TOA) show that over the past decade the energy imbalance ranges between about 0.5 and 1 Wm-2.

Trenberth et al. (2014) must not have been referring to the individual climate models, because they show a much larger range. In fact, some of the models show relatively high positive TOA energy imbalances, in the neighborhood of +2 to +3 watts/m^2, while others show negative energy imbalances, roughly -3 to -2 watts/m^2.

The simulated oceans in the models with the high positive TOA energy imbalances have to be accumulating heat at relatively fast rates.  On the other hand, the simulated oceans in the models with the negative TOA energy imbalances have to be losing heat very quickly.  Yes, losing heat.

In this first look, we’re going to calculate and illustrate the ocean heat accumulation from 1955 to 2014 based on the climate-model-simulated TOA energy imbalances for all of the models included in the earlier energy imbalance post. We’ll start with the full oceans compared to data for the top 2000 meters, and we’ll then compare models and data for the top 700 meters. Continue reading

Posted in Climate Model Failings, Ocean Heat Content Problems | 6 Comments

July 2015 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly & Model-Data Difference Update

This post provides an update of the values for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature reconstructions—GISS through July 2015 and HADCRUT4 and NCEI (formerly NCDC) through June 2015—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature composites (RSS and UAH) through July 2015.  It also includes a model-data comparison. Continue reading

Posted in Global Temperature Update, TLT and LOST Updates | 4 Comments

Halfway to Hell? – Alarmists are Growing Desperate in Their Efforts to Influence Public Opinion

INTRODUCTION

Apparently, based initially on a 1975 “first intuition” by an economist (not a climate scientist), politicians have sought to limit global surface warming to 2 deg C above pre-industrial levels by restricting greenhouse gas emissions. To that end, those politicians created the political entity called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose sole purpose is to prepare reports to support the politicians’ agendas.

Politicians from around the globe are once again gathering this year to futilely try to reach agreement on how to achieve that goal of limiting global warming to the economist-suggested limit. So, in order to increase public awareness, we’re being bombarded weekly with speculations of pending global-warming gloom and doom. One was a recent article Earth now halfway to UN global warming limit at NewScientist. It included a graph titled “Halfway to hell”, my Figure 1, prepared by chemist Kevin Cowtan. The graph showed that the values of most surface temperature reconstructions would likely rise above a 1.0 deg C anomaly in 2015.

01 Cowtan Graph from NewScientist

Figure 1 Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Global Warming Goofiness | 1 Comment

August 2015 Update for The Blob

This post provides background information and a quick update on the naturally occurring warming event in the eastern North Pacific known as The Blob. Not just any blob, The Blob.

01 N. Pac SSTa Map Aug 2014 to Jul 2015

Figure 1 Continue reading

Posted in Natural Warming, The Blob | 11 Comments

July 2015 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

MONTHLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP

The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for July 2015. It was downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer. The contour range was set to -2.5 to +2.5 deg C.

00 Map

July 2015 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.323 deg C)

MONTHLY GLOBAL OVERVIEW

Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies showed an uptick, an increase of about +0.031 deg C, from June to July. Both Hemispheres showed warming. The only basin with a sizable decrease was the South Atlantic. And there was basically no change in the North Pacific and Indian basins. As the El Niño continues to develop, we should expect increases around the globe. The monthly Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are presently at +0.323 deg C, referenced to the WMO-preferred base years of 1981 to 2010. Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments

No Consensus: Earth’s Top of Atmosphere Energy Imbalance in CMIP5-Archived (IPCC AR5) Climate Models

This post provides an initial look at climate model simulations of the top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy budget and its three components. It includes the outputs of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive (used by the IPCC for the 5th Assessment Report).

There are astonishing differences in the modeled estimates of the past, present and future imbalances and the three components that make up the top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy budget. That is, there is no agreement on the magnitude of TOA Earth’s energy imbalance in the models, and there are even wider disagreements in the calculated components that make up that energy budget, how they evolved in the past, and how they may evolve in the future…all suggesting, among the models, there is little agreement in the modeled processes and physics that contribute to global warming now, contributed to it in the past and might contribute to it in the future. Continue reading

Posted in Climate Model Failings, Climate Model Problems | 7 Comments

August 2015 ENSO Update – Another Westerly Wind Burst in Late July Should Help El Niño Evolve

This post provides an update of many of the ENSO-related variables we presented as part of last year’s 2014-15 El Niño Series.  The reference years for comparison graphs in this post are 1997 and 2014, which are the development years of the strongest recent El Niño and the last El Niño.  I have not included animations in this post. In their place, I’ve compared present-day maps from the NOAA GODAS website to the same time in 2014.

Note: In addition to the standard time-series presentations of global, NINO3.4, hemispheric and ocean basin sea surface temperature anomalies, I’ve also added an updated graph of the sea surface temperature anomalies for The Blob to the standard format of the monthly sea surface temperature updates at my website, starting with the April 2015 update.  I have not posted the update for the July anomalies yet.

INTRODUCTION

There are two notable things this month. First, NINO3.4 region sea surface temperature anomalies, which NOAA uses as its primary metric for determining the strength of an El Niño, are running a tick ahead of the 1997/98 El Niño. But there’s still a ways to go before the peak of this event.  We’ll illustrate the sea surface temperature-based indices in a moment.

Second, there appears to have been yet another westerly wind bust in the western tropical Pacific recently. Continue reading

Posted in ENSO Update | 12 Comments

Quicky Early August 2015 ENSO Update: NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Still Just Above the Threshold of a Strong El Niño

The post provides a look at the most recent weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for the equatorial Pacific.  It also includes a Hovmoller diagram of the wind stress (not anomalies) along the equator…to confirm that there was another westerly wind burst at the beginning of last month.  Continue reading

Posted in ENSO Update | 12 Comments

Ocean Heat: New Study Shows Climate Scientists Can Still Torture Data until the Data Confess

A week or so ago, a troll left a link at my blog to a supposed-to-be-alarming blog post about a new climate study of ocean heat content. According to the study, a revised method of tweaking ocean heat reconstructions has manufactured new warming so that the top 700 meters of the oceans are warming faster than predicted by climate models. In other words, the “missing heat” is missing no more. Continue reading

Posted in Ocean Heat Content Problems | 28 Comments

Yet Even More Nonsense from Grant Foster (Tamino) et al. on the Bias Adjustments in the New NOAA Pause-Buster Sea Surface Temperature Dataset

UPDATE: It was pointed out in a comment that the model-data comparison in the post was skewed. I was comparing modeled marine air temperature minus modeled sea surface temperature anomalies to observed night marine air temperature minus sea surface temperature anomalies. Close, but not quite the same. I’ve crossed out that section and the references to it and removed the graphs. Sorry. It was a last-minute addition that was a mistake. (Memo to self: Stop making last minute additions.) Thanks, Phil.

The rest of the post is correct.

# # #

INTRODUCTION

The saga continues. For those new to this topic, see the backstory near the end of the post.

Grant Foster (a.k.a. Tamino and Hansen’s Bulldog) has written yet another post The Bob about my simple comparison of the new NOAA pause-buster sea surface temperature dataset and the UKMO HADNMAT2 marine air temperature dataset that was used for bias adjustments on that NOAA dataset. In it, he quotes a comment at his blog from Miriam O’Brien, a.k.a. Sou from HotWhopper. Miriam recycled a flawed argument that I addressed over a month ago.

In his post, after falsely claiming that I hadn’t looked for reasons for the difference between the night marine air temperature data and the updated NOAA sea surface temperature data during the hiatus, Grant Foster presented a model that was based on a multivariate regression analysis…in an attempt to explain that difference. Right off the get go, though, you can see that Hansen’s Bulldog lost focus again. He also failed to list the time lags and scaling factors for the individual variables so that his results can be verified. We’re also interested in those scaling factors to see if the relative weighting of the individual components are proportioned properly for a temperature-related global dataset. To overcome that lack of information from Grant Foster, I also used a multivariate regression analysis to determine the factors. I think you’ll find the results interesting.

Last, before presenting his long-term graph of the difference between the HADNMAT2 and ERSST.v4 datasets, Grant Foster forgot to check which ocean surface temperature dataset climate models say should be warming faster: the ocean surface or the marine air directly above it. That provides us with another way to show that NOAA overcooked their adjustments to their sea surface temperature data. Continue reading

Posted in Tamino, The Halt In Global Warming, The Pause | 5 Comments