>CORRECTION: The AMO illustration and its description have been corrected to reflect the discussion in The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation – Correcting My Mistake.
MONTHLY SST ANOMALY MAP
The map of Global OI.v2 SST anomalies provided by NOMADS is shown below.
March 2009 SST Anomalies Map
As noted in A Recent Drop in the AMO, I am adding the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to the monthly update.
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
The AMO ended its sizeable drop in March. The questions are:
-How far will it rebound over the next few months?
-And has the AMO reached its long-term peak and will it continue its decline over the next 25 years, or is this recent drop just another perturbation, albeit a large one?
The monthly change (March 2009 Minus February 2009) in Global SST anomalies was approximately +0.025 deg C. NINO3.4 SST anomalies continue to fluctuate near to the threshold of a minor La Nina.
NOTES ABOUT THE DATA
The first NINO3.4 SST anomaly graph illustrates raw WEEKLY OI.v2 SST anomaly data that’s centered on Wednesdays, from January 3, 1990 to March 25, 2009. The rest of the graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SST anomaly data from November 1981 to March 2009.
NINO3.4 SST ANOMALIES BASED ON WEEKLY OI.v2 SST DATA
NINO3.4 SST Anomaly (Weekly)
Present Value = -0.545
MONTHLY OI.v2 SST UPDATES
NINO3.4 SST Anomaly (Monthly)
Monthly Change = +0.099 deg C
Monthly Change = +0.025 deg C
Monthly Change = -0.031 deg C
Monthly Change = +0.068 deg C
North Atlantic (0 to 75N, 78W to 10E)
Monthly Change = -0.017 deg C
South Atlantic (0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)
Monthly Change = +0.126 deg C
North Pacific (0 to 65N, 100 to 270E, where 270E=90W)
Monthly Change = -0.014 Deg C
South Pacific (0 to 60S, 145 to 290E, where 290E=70W)
Monthly Change = +0.044 deg C
Indian Ocean (30N to 60S, 20 to 145E)
Monthly Change = +0.047 deg C
Arctic Ocean (65 to 90N)
Monthly Change = -0.044 deg C
Southern Ocean (60 to 90S)
Monthly Change = +0.097 deg C
The Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).
>Bob, an article by Bratcher and Giese found that “low frequency changes of tropical Pacific temperature lead global surface air temperature changes by about 4 years.”Would it be possible to put together a graph of tropical Pacific SSTs?Thanks,DBTropical Pacific decadal variability and global warmingwww.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2002/2002GL015191.shtml
>DB: Thanks for the link to the Bratcher paper. I’ll have to see if I can find the full paper somewhere. The following posts cover the tropical Pacific:http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/08/tropical-atlantic-indian-and-pacific.htmlhttp://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/09/tropical-sst-anomalies-revisited.htmlhttp://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/09/tropical-sst-anomalies-revisited-east.htmlhttp://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/10/tropical-sst-anomalies-revisited-west.htmlAlso, you can search my blog. Refer to the upper left-hand corner of the page.
>DB: Also refer to the copy of the Bratcher and Giese slide presentation:http://www.decvar.org/documents/CCR_workshop/bratcher.htm?PHPSESSID=df81bed52419c895efe9135099fb26e9
>DB, please don’t include phone numbers and email addresses. I have no way to snip them in blogger (or I haven’t discovered how to do it), so, not knowing what kind of programs read my blog (there’s at least one), I felt I had to delete your comment. Sorry. Next time, please leave the personal info out. Thanks.You wrote, “Bob, thanks for the slide presentation info. She appears to focus in on the area 10S and about 150W.”I found slide 9 (the comparison of NINO3 SST anomaly and global temperature) interesting.WorldClimateReport did a post on the study here:http://www.worldclimatereport.com/archive/previous_issues/vol8/v8n04/feature1.htm And CO2Science did a write up here:http://www.co2science.org/articles/V6/N20/C1.phpKnow anyone who can do some statistical analysis?http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/01/wanted-statistical-data-analysis-help.htmlYou wrote, “I wonder if Ms. Bratcher would be interested in doing a seven-year update? She’s now Amy Wagner at NOAA”You’ll have to ask her.I’m still looking for a copy of the full paper to see how they filtered the data to come up with the lags, to see where they got the Southern Ocean subsurface temperature data, and to see what coordinates they used for the Tropical Pacific, see whose SST data they’re using, etc.Looks like an interesting paper. Too bad they’ve got a $9.00 firewall on it. Regards.