>I was recently asked to outline my findings about the multiyear aftereffects of ENSO and to do so in one page or less. Instead, I’ll use the title question as the basis for this post. To accomplish the desired task of limiting my discussion to less than one page, I’ll provide no illustrations, but will provide links to more detailed discussions.
The Instrument Temperature Record Contradicts The Hypothesis That Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases Warm The Global Oceans. But in order to see this, the National Oceanographic Data Center’s (Levitus et al 2009) Ocean Heat Content (OHC) data must be divided into subsets. In this form, most ocean basins show decadal and multidecadal declines in OHC, with sudden surges that correspond to multiyear La Nina events or to changes in atmospheric pressure as defined by the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Index. These findings were discussed and illustrated in three posts. First: ENSO Dominates NODC Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Data, Second: North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content (0-700 Meters) Is Governed By Natural Variables, and Third: North Pacific Ocean Heat Content Shift In The Late 1980s.
The Instrument Temperature Record Contradicts The Hypothesis That Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases Are The Primary Cause Of The Rise In Lower Troposphere Temperature (TLT) Anomalies. There is a very clear upward step change in the TLT anomalies of the Mid-To-High Latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This upward step change was caused by the strong El Nino event of 1997/98. A smaller upward step change is evident after the 1986/87/88 El Nino, but the step is masked by the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991. These step changes in the TLT anomalies of the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere bias global TLT anomalies and give the impression of a gradual rise in global TLT anomalies. This was discussed and illustrated using times-series graphs and time-latitude plots (Hovmollers) in the post RSS MSU TLT Time-Latitude Plots…Show Climate Responses That Cannot Be Easily Illustrated With Time-Series Graphs Alone.
The Instrument Temperature Record Contradicts The Hypothesis That Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases Have Caused The Rise In Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Since 1976. This was first discussed over a year ago in two posts: Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1 and Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 2. In those posts I illustrate how approximately 25% of the global oceans between the latitudes of 60S and 65N warm in response to El Nino events, and, in a counterintuitive response, also warm during La Nina events. This impacts global SST anomaly trends and is mistaken for anthropogenic global warming. I have over the past year expanded on the explanation in many posts. Three recent posts provide detailed discussions of the processes that cause SST anomalies to rise in response to El Nino AND La Nina events. These recent posts are, first, More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 1 – El Nino Events Warm The Oceans, second, More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 2 – La Nina Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Nino Events AND…During Major Traditional ENSO Events, Warm Water Is Redistributed Via Ocean Currents, and third, More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 3 – East Indian & West Pacific Oceans Can Warm In Response To Both El Nino & La Nina Events.
I have also posted 23 videos on YouTube for those who prefer animations. Many of those videos deal with the multiyear aftereffects of ENSO and their impacts on global temperatures. Refer to: