>This post is simply a place for me to post graphs that I refer to or link often, or foresee the need to in the future. This way I don’t have to go searching for them.
Annual North Pacific SST Anomalies North of 20N (HADISST)
That’s for the area of the North Pacific used in the PDO. Note the shift in the late 1980s. That should correspond to a shift in the North Pacific Sea Level Pressure. It also impacted Ocean Heat Content for that area, and was discussed in North Pacific Ocean Heat Content Shift In The Late 1980s.
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies With Linear Trend (HADISST)
There’s basically no trend.
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Smoothed With a 121-Month Filter (HADISST)
Yes, there’s multidecadal variations to ENSO.
>Hi Bob, haven't found your email to send you this link so I have posted it here, sorry if it is not the correct way to access you.http://www.auscsc.org.au/images/PDF/influenceofenso.pdfInfluence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperatureJ. D. McLean,1C. R. de Freitas,2and R. M. Carter3Received 16 December 2008; revised 23 March 2009; accepted 14 May 2009; published 23 July 2009. Time series for the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and global tropospherictemperature anomalies (GTTA) are compared for the 1958 2008 period. GTTA arerepresented by data from satellite microwave sensing units (MSU) for the period1980–2008 and from radiosondes (RATPAC) for 1958–2008. After the removal from thedata set of short periods of temperature perturbation that relate to near-equator volcaniceruption, we use derivatives to document the presence of a 5- to 7-month delayed closerelationship between SOI and GTTA. Change in SOI accounts for 72% of the variancein GTTA for the 29-year-long MSU record and 68% of the variance in GTTA for thelonger 50-year RATPAC record. Because El Nin˜ o Southern Oscillation is known toexercise a particularly strong influence in the tropics, we also compared the SOI withtropical temperature anomalies between 20 S and 20 N. The results showed that SOIaccounted for 81% of the variance in tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics.Overall the results suggest that the Southern Oscillation exercises a consistently dominantinfluence on mean global temperature, with a maximum effect in the tropics, exceptfor periods when equatorial volcanism causes ad hoc cooling. That mean globaltropospheric temperature has for the last 50 years fallen and risen in close accord withthe SOI of 5–7 months earlier shows the potential of natural forcing mechanisms toaccount for most of the temperature variation.Citation: McLean, J. D., C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter (2009), Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature,J. Geophys. Res., 114, D14104, doi:10.1029/2008JD011637.
>Seems to stop in 2004!
>Presidente: Thanks for the link to McLean et al. I believe they should have used one of the SST-based ENSO proxies (NINO3.4 SST anomalies or CTI) and surface temperatures for their paper. The oceans would provide the processes to make this work. They also could have made an simple integral of NINO3.4 SST anomalies match the surface temperature curve starting in the early 20th Century. Refer to: http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/01/reproducing-global-temperature.html
>Anonymous: I assume you're referring to the NINO3.4 SST anomalies that have been smoothed with the 121-month filter. The filter is centered on the 61st month, and thaat shortens the term of the data by 5 years on both ends.
>Yep, even a 64 year periodicity http://virakkraft.com/NINO-forecast.png
Is it possible to tie SST patterns to the number of hurricane formations? It is my understanding that tropical storms are nature’s way of balancing ocean temperatures versus atmospheric temperatures.
Michael Cuttler: Patterns is one of those words that can be taken a number of ways. If you mean variations over time, there have been a number of studies about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. I don’t recall any studies discussing the spatial patterns (warm in the eastern tropical North Atlantic versus warm in the Gulf), though that would make sense.