I had prepared this animation for an upcoming post about the failure of the IPCC coupled climate models to reproduce the multidecadal variations that exist in the instrument-based global Sea Surface Temperature record. But that post should be taken seriously while this animation is more for entertainment, though I think it gets the message across. Here’s what I removed from the upcoming post.
Others at this point might take the observational Sea Surface data from 1945 to 2000 and splice it to the observations near the end, in an attempt to project the multidecadal variations into the future and compare that data to the IPCC model projection. But I don’t like to present future projections of observational data. So, how could I present the potential problems with the IPCC’s failure to account for the multidecadal variations in Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, without projecting the observations? The answer was easy. And I could have a little fun with it.
In your best Rod Serling voice:
Imagine, if you will…an Anthropogenic Global Warming movement is started in 1920. A group of climate scientists make an alarming prediction that global sea surface temperatures will be a whole 1 deg C warmer in 2010 than they were in 1910. They believe that mankind is responsible.
Yup, you can see where this is going.
The following link contains a gif animation with 8 frames. Each frame is presented for 30 seconds. Hopefully, that will be long enough for most readers. There are a few frames with little text, so those will seem to drag on for a bit.
Both the HADISST Sea Surface Temperature data and the IPCC AR4 Hindcast/Projection (TOS) data used in this post are available through the KNMI Climate Explorer. The HADISST data is found at the Monthly observations webpage, and the model data is found at the Monthly CMIP3+ scenario runswebpage. I converted the monthly data to annual averages for this post to simplify the graphs and discussions. And again, the period of 1910 to 1940 was used as the base years for the anomalies.