How You Can Confirm the SST Anomalies for the Indian and Pacific Ocean Subset have NOT WARMED for 17 Years

One of the regular visitors to my blog from Australia (Neville) has asked how readers can confirm the key result of yesterday’s post here at Climate Observations, which was also cross posted at WattsUpWithThat. That post showed that satellite-based sea surface temperature anomalies (Reynolds OI.v2 dataset) for the Indian and Pacific Oceans, when combined into one subset, Figure 1, show no warming for the past 17+ years—that is, the linear trend is basically flat since January 1995. And considering the Indian and Pacific Oceans from pole to pole represent 75% of the surface area of the global oceans, that’s a chunk of global real estate that contradicts the hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming.

Figure 1

Thanks, Neville, for prompting this post.

So, assuming you can create a time-series graph on a spreadsheet and have the spreadsheet create a linear trend line and equation for you, the following screen captures from the KNMI Climate Explorer will walk you through how to retrieve the data.

Start by clicking on –> the monthly observations link to the KNMI Climate Explorer.


Screen Cap A


Screen Cap B


Screen Cap C


Screen Cap D


Screen Cap E


Screen Cap F


Screen Cap G


Screen Cap H


If you’re feeling adventurous, you could stop at Screen Cap D before selecting the years and click on the “raw data” above the anomaly (third) graph on that webpage. That would give the satellite-based sea surface temperature anomaly data for the Indian & Pacific Oceans from pole to pole for the entire term of the data, which starts in November 1981. And if you’re really, really feeling ambitious, you could then back out a little and select “CMIP3+ scenario runs” from the menu in the right-hand column and follow a similar process to download the IPCC’s archived model mean data for sea surface temperature (identified as “TOS”).

That way you could also verify that the warming rate of the IPCC’s model simulations was more than double the observed rate for the Indian and Pacific Ocean dataset for the past 30 years, Figure 2.

Figure 2

You could see that the models did a great job at matching the trend for the first 17+ years of the data, Figure 3.

Figure 3

And you could then verify that they do a terrible job for the last 17+ years, as shown in Figure 4. Also notice the differences between the model trends in Figure 3 and 4. The models show accelerated warming in the later period, but the observations not only don’t show it accelerating, they don’t show any warming at all in the last 17 years.

Figure 4


In my Section 9 of my book, using EXCEL, I walk readers, who aren’t familiar with spreadsheet software, through the process of recreating a 30-year comparison graph of the model-simulated and observed sea surface temperature anomaly data for the East Pacific Ocean, which basically has not warmed in those three decades. See Figure 5. Starting with the illustrations similar to the screen captures above, I explain the features of the Climate Explorer in more detail and then move onto EXCEL. It takes 30plus screen caps to reach the final steps, Figure 6, but the readers are then able to download data from the KNMI Climate Explorer and create a model-data comparison graph. The intent of that section was to allow readers to confirm the results of my book.

Figure 5


Figure 6

Sales of my book have been quite brisk lately. Thanks to all who have purchased a copy. And thanks to Bishop Hill for his recent postabout it.


As illustrated and discussed in If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their deceptive Ads?, the IPCC’s climate models cannot simulate the rates at which surface temperatures warmed and cooled since 1901 on a global basis, so their failings illustrated in this post are not abnormal.

Additionally, the IPCC claims that only the rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gases can explain the warming over the past 30 years. Satellite-based sea surface temperature disagrees with the IPCC’s claims. Most, if not all, of the rise in global sea surface temperature is shown to be the result of a natural process called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. This is discussed in detail in If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their deceptive Ads?, which is available in pdf and Kindle editions. A copy of the introduction, table of contents, and closing in pdf form can be found here.


The modeled and observed surface temperature data presented in this post are available through the KNMI Climate Explorer:

About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
This entry was posted in KNMI Climate Explorer, Model-Data Comparison SST. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to How You Can Confirm the SST Anomalies for the Indian and Pacific Ocean Subset have NOT WARMED for 17 Years

  1. Neville. says:

    Bob I got as far as the spreadsheet stage. I don’t have any experience at all with spreadsheets and excel, in fact I’ve never had a computer lesson in my life and it shows.
    But thanks very much for that Bob, at least I can see now how you find the info and create those graphs. I didn’t have a clue that software was available online and anyone could use it.

  2. Pingback: Roger Pielke Sr and Bishop Hill Discuss “If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product…” | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

  3. Pingback: Climate Change Is Hiding Flt 370! | No B-S here (I hope)

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