June 2012 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

MONTHLY SST ANOMALY MAP

The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for June 2012. It was downloaded from the NOMADS website. The contour levels are set at 0.5 deg C, and white is set at zero.

June 2012 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.189 deg C)

MONTHLY OVERVIEW

The Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly continued to warm as one would expect during the transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions (rising about 0.425 deg C) to +0.463 deg C, which is just below the 0.5 Deg C threshold of an El Niño. See the weekly NINO3.4 graph near the bottom of the post.

Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies basically remained unchanged, having dropped a mere -0.004 deg C. Both Hemispheres cooled very slightly. The cooling in the North Pacific and Indian Oceans outweighed the warming in all other basins. The monthly Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are presently at +0.189 deg C.

(1) Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Monthly Change = -0.004 deg C

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(2) NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

(5S-5N, 170W-120W)

Monthly Change = +0.425 deg C

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THE EAST PACIFIC VERSUS THE REST OF THE WORLD

The East Pacific and the Rest-Of-The-World (Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific) datasets were first discussed in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World, and was discussed a few months later in How Can Things So Obvious Be Overlooked By The Climate Science Community?, and in my book If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their deceptive Ads?.

In the following two graphs, both datasets have been adjusted for the impacts of volcanic aerosols. The global oceans were divided into these two subsets to illustrate two facts. First, the linear trend of the volcano-adjusted East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 dataset is basically flat. The East Pacific linear trend varies with each monthly update. But it won’t vary significantly between El Niño and La Niña events.

(3) Volcano-Adjusted East Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-90N, 180-80W)

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And second, the volcano-adjusted Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the Rest of the World (90S-90N, 80W-180) rise in very clear steps, in response to the significant 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño/La Niña events. It also appears as though the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of this dataset may have made another upward shift in response to the 2009/10 El Niño and 2010/11 La Niña events. For those who are interested in the actual trends of the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies between the 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño events and between the 1997/98 and 2009/10 El Niño events refer to Figure 4 in Does The Sea Surface Temperature Record Support The Hypothesis Of Anthropogenic Global Warming? I further described (at an introductory level) the ENSO-related processes that cause these upward steps in the post ENSO Indices Do Not Represent The Process Of ENSO Or Its Impact On Global Temperature.

(4) Volcano-Adjusted Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies For The Rest of the World

(90S-90N, 80W-180)

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The periods used for the average Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature anomalies between the significant El Niño events of 1982/83, 1986/87/88, 1997/98, and 2009/10 are determined as follows. Using the original NOAA Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)for the official months of those El Niño events, I shifted (lagged) those El Niño periods by six months to accommodate the lag between NINO3.4 SST anomalies and the response of the Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, then deleted the Rest-Of-The-World data that corresponds to those significant El Niño events. I then averaged the Rest-Of-The-World SST anomalies between those El Niño-related gaps.

The “Nov 2010 to Present” average varies with each update. As noted in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World, it will be interesting to see where that Sea Surface Temperature anomaly average settles out, if it does, before the next significant El Niño drives them higher.

Of course, something could shift. Will the upward ratcheting continue when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) decides to turn around and start its decline? The upward steps would not continue in the North Atlantic, but would the AMO impact the upward steps in other portions of the globe? For more information about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, refer to the post An Introduction To ENSO, AMO, and PDO — Part 2.

The Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of the East Pacific Ocean, or approximately 33% of the surface area of the global oceans, have decreased slightly since 1982 based on the linear trend. And between upward shifts, the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the rest of the world (67% of the global ocean surface area) remain relatively flat. As discussed in my book, anthropogenic forcings are said to be responsible for most of the rise in global surface temperatures over this period, but the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly graphs of those two areas prompt a two-part question: Since 1982, what anthropogenic global warming processes would overlook the Sea Surface Temperatures of 33% of the global oceans and have an impact on the other 67% but only during the months of the significant El Niño events of 1986/87/88, 1997/98 and 2009/10?

STANDARD NOTE ABOUT THE DATA

The MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE anomaly data from November 1981 to June 2012, as it is presented by the NOAA NOMADS website linked at the end of the post. I’ve added the 13-month running-average filter to smooth out the seasonal variations.

MONTHLY INDIVIDUAL OCEAN AND HEMISPHERIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE UPDATES

(5) Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

Monthly Change = -0.002 deg C

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(6) Southern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

Monthly Change = -0.005 deg C

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(7) North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 70N, 80W to 0)

Monthly Change = +0.161 deg C

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(8) South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)

Monthly Change = +0.003 deg C

Note: I discussed the (now apparently temporary) upward shift in the South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the post The 2009/10 Warming Of The South Atlantic. Prior to that shift, the South Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies had been relatively flat for about two decades. It looks as though the South Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are returning to the level they were at before that surge, and where they had been since the late 1980s. We’ll have to see where things settle.

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(9) North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 65N, 100E to 90W)

Monthly Change = -0.113 Deg C

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(10) South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 120E to 70W)

Monthly Change = +0.028 deg C

####################################

(11) Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(60S to 30N, 20E to 120E)

Monthly Change = -0.114 deg C

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(12) Arctic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(65N to 90N)

Monthly Change = +0.241 deg C

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(13) Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-60S)

Monthly Change = +0.016 deg C

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WEEKLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

The NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature anomalies based on the week centered on June 6, 2012 are well into weak El Niño range, but didn’t rise over the past week. They are presently at +0.655 deg C.

(14) Weekly NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

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The weekly global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are warming in response to the seasonal ENSO signal and are at +0.213 deg C. As I noted a couple of times over the last few months, even though this La Niña event was not as strong as the one that occurred in 2010/11, the low for the weekly global sea surface temperatures this year are noticeably cooler than last.

(15) Weekly Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO UNDERSTAND WHY THE ATLANTIC-INDIAN-WEST PACIFIC DATASET SHIFTS UPWARD IN RESPONSE TO MAJOR EL NIÑO EVENTS?

Over the past three years, in so many posts it’s not practical to link them here, I’ve presented the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related processes that cause the blatantly obvious upward shifts in sea surface temperature anomalies for the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific data, shown above. I’ve also explained why the East Pacific shows no warming over the past 30 years. You’re welcome to use the search function on this webpage.

Better yet, you could buy a copy of my book and save yourself some time. It is available in pdf and Kindle formats. See If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their deceptive Ads? Amazon also provides a Kindle preview that runs from the introduction through a good portion of Section 2. That’s about the first 15% of the book. A copy of the introduction, table of contents, and closing can be found here.

Of course, donationsare welcome and gratefully accepted, because there’s no truth to the rumor that bloggers skeptical of anthropogenic climate change are supported by big oil. No truth at all.

SOURCE

The Reynolds Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

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About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
This entry was posted in SST Update. Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to June 2012 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

  1. billc says:

    Bob,

    Using a very rough box-based landmask to the Reynolds SST dataset I get the following decadal trends by basin (deg C/decade):

    All 0.083
    Arctic 0.068
    North Atlantic 0.158
    South Atlantic 0.046
    North Pacific 0.131
    South Pacific 0.046
    Indian 0.055
    Other 0.165

    I don’t have the Southern Ocean broken out, rather I have it broken apart into the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans. Wondering if you can comment (other than it’s very rough).

  2. Bob Tisdale says:

    billc: Using the data from graphs, I get the following trends for the period of Nov 1981 to June 2012:

    Global = 0.084 deg C/decade
    Arctic = 0.11 deg C/decade
    North Atlantic = 0.231 deg C/decade
    South Atlantic = 0.070 deg C/decade
    North Pacific = 0.068 deg C/decade
    South Pacific = 0.041 deg C/decade
    Indian = 0.096 deg C/decade

    Your North Pacific trend seems more in line with the trend I get for the Northern Hemisphere of 0.127 deg C/decade.

    I have to ask, why do you need a land mask? Are you using GISS LOTI data?

    Regards

  3. billc says:

    Bob,

    I made a big mistake in my earlier calculations. Sorry – here are the revised numbers:

    All 0.083
    Arctic 0.068
    North Atlantic 0.242
    South Atlantic 0.054
    North Pacific 0.075
    South Pacific 0.028
    Indian 0.084
    Other 0.188

    That’s much closer to what you got (I’m sure your numbers are better). The bigger discrepancies are in the south where I didn’t include a Southern ocean. But I’m satisfied. The mistake I made essentially smeared different basins across latitudes. As far as the land mask, I’m using the NetCDF file from NOAA for the satellite SSTs. The raw file has values over land and they provide you with a land mask by grid cell (1 = ocean, 0 = land). I modified the land mask to say 2 = North Atlantic, 3 = South Atlantic etc. by lat and long, but very roughly. I just wanted to get close.

    Have you posted a map somewhere that is like the June map above but that shows the color coded trends since 1981?

    Thanks

  4. Bob Tisdale says:

    billc: I haven’t posted a trend map for a while–can’t think of the last time I did. But you can create one at the GISS website:
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

    GISS uses Reynolds OI.v2 data from Dec 1981 to present, so I created a trend map (excluding land) at the GISS website based on annual temperatures from 1982 to 2011 and hopefully this link will work:
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2012&month_last=6&sat=-1&sst=1&type=trends&mean_gen=0112&year1=1982&year2=2011&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg

    Regards

  5. Pascvaks says:

    Bob&BillC:
    Interesting. Thanks!
    FWIW I probably didn’t do something right but thought this was interesting as well –
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2012&month_last=6&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=0112&year1=1981&year2=2011&base1=1991&base2=2000&radius=250&pol=reg
    Reflects “Sources and parameters: GHCN, GISS, HR2SST, 250km, Anom 0112, 1981-2011, 1991-2000”
    Note: Gray areas signify missing data.
    Note: Ocean data are not used over land nor within 100km of a reporting land station.
    Note: OTI Anomaly vs 1991-2000

    AND

    FWIW, again, also interesting –
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2012&month_last=6&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=0112&year1=1981&year2=2011&base1=2001&base2=2010&radius=250&pol=reg
    Reflects “Sources and parameters: GHCN, GISS, HR2SST, 250km, Anom0112, 1981-2011, 2001-2010”
    Note: Gray areas signify missing data.
    Note: Ocean data are not used over land nor within 100km of a reporting land station.
    Note: OTI Anomaly vs 2001-2010

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