July 2012 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

MONTHLY SST ANOMALY MAP

The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for July 2012. It was downloaded from the NOMADS website. The contour levels are set at 0.5 deg C, and white is set at zero.

July 2012 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.234 deg C)

MONTHLY OVERVIEW

The Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomaly continued to warm as one would expect during the evolution of an El Niño (rising about 0.21 deg C) to +0.672 deg C, which is well above the +0.5 Deg C threshold of an El Niño. See the weekly NINO3.4 graph near the bottom of the post.

Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies warmed (+0.045 deg C) as one would expect in response to the developing El Niño. The hemispheres responded differently. The Northern Hemisphere warmed since June, while the Southern Hemisphere was basically unchanged. The South Pacific and the Southern Oceans were the only two ocean basins that cooler in July. The monthly Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are presently at +0.234 deg C.

(1) Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Monthly Change = +0.045 deg C

####################################

(2) NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

(5S-5N, 170W-120W)

Monthly Change = +0.209 deg C

####################################

THE EAST PACIFIC VERSUS THE REST OF THE WORLD

The East Pacific and the Rest-Of-The-World (Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific) datasets were first discussed in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World, and was discussed a few months later inHow Can Things So Obvious Be Overlooked By The Climate Science Community?, and in my book If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their deceptive Ads?.

It will be discussed in great detail in my upcoming book Who Turned on the Heat? The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño-Southern Oscillation. I’ve made great progress in it and hope to publish pdf and Amazon Kindle editions this month.

In the following two graphs, both datasets have been adjusted for the impacts of volcanic aerosols. The global oceans were divided into these two subsets to illustrate two facts. First, the linear trend of the volcano-adjusted East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 dataset is basically flat. That is, the East Pacific hasn’t warmed in 30+ years. The East Pacific linear trend varies very slightly with each monthly update. But it won’t vary significantly between El Niño and La Niña events.

(3) Volcano-Adjusted East Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-90N, 180-80W)

####################################

And second, the volcano-adjusted Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the Rest of the World (90S-90N, 80W-180) rise in very clear steps, in response to the significant 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño/La Niña events. It also appears as though the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of this dataset may have made another upward shift in response to the 2009/10 El Niño and 2010/11 La Niña events. For those who are interested in the actual trends of the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies between the 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño events and between the 1997/98 and 2009/10 El Niño events refer to Figure 4 in Does The Sea Surface Temperature Record Support The Hypothesis Of Anthropogenic Global Warming? I further described (at an introductory level) the ENSO-related processes that cause these upward steps in the post ENSO Indices Do Not Represent The Process Of ENSO Or Its Impact On Global Temperature.

(4) Volcano-Adjusted Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies For The Rest of the World

(90S-90N, 80W-180)

####################################

The periods used for the average Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature anomalies between the significant El Niño events of 1982/83, 1986/87/88, 1997/98, and 2009/10 are determined as follows. Using the original NOAA Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)for the official months of those El Niño events, I shifted (lagged) those El Niño periods by six months to accommodate the lag between NINO3.4 SST anomalies and the response of the Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, then deleted the Rest-Of-The-World data that corresponds to those significant El Niño events. I then averaged the Rest-Of-The-World SST anomalies between those El Niño-related gaps.

The “Nov 2010 to Present” average varies with each update. As noted in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World, it will be interesting to see where that Sea Surface Temperature anomaly average settles out, if it does, before the next significant El Niño drives them higher.

Of course, something could shift. Will the upward ratcheting continue when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) decides to turn around and start its decline? The upward steps would not continue in the North Atlantic, but would the AMO impact the upward steps in other portions of the globe? For more information about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, refer to the post An Introduction To ENSO, AMO, and PDO — Part 2.

The Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of the East Pacific Ocean, or approximately 33% of the surface area of the global oceans, have decreased slightly since 1982 based on the linear trend. And between upward shifts, the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the rest of the world (67% of the global ocean surface area) remain relatively flat. As discussed in my book, anthropogenic forcings are said to be responsible for most of the rise in global surface temperatures over this period, but the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly graphs of those two areas prompt a two-part question: Since 1982, what anthropogenic global warming processes would overlook the Sea Surface Temperatures of 33% of the global oceans and have an impact on the other 67% but only during the months of the significant El Niño events of 1986/87/88, 1997/98 and 2009/10?

STANDARD NOTE ABOUT THE DATA

The MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE anomaly data from November 1981 to July 2012, as it is presented by the NOAA NOMADS website linked at the end of the post. I’ve added the 13-month running-average filter to smooth out the seasonal variations.

MONTHLY INDIVIDUAL OCEAN AND HEMISPHERIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE UPDATES

(5) Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

Monthly Change = +0.109 deg C

####################################

(6) Southern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

Monthly Change = -0.004 deg C

####################################

(7) North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 70N, 80W to 0)

Monthly Change = +0.086 deg C

####################################

(8) South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)

Monthly Change = +0.059 deg C

Note: I discussed the (now apparently temporary) upward shift in the South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the post The 2009/10 Warming Of The South Atlantic. Prior to that shift, the South Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies had been relatively flat for about two decades. It looks as though the South Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are returning to the level they were at before that surge, and where they had been since the late 1980s. We’ll have to see where things settle.

####################################

(9) North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 65N, 100E to 90W)

Monthly Change = +0.096 Deg C

####################################

(10) South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 120E to 70W)

Monthly Change = -0.043 deg C

####################################

(11) Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(60S to 30N, 20E to 120E)

Monthly Change = +0.047 deg C

####################################

(12) Arctic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(65N to 90N)

Monthly Change = +0.304 deg C

####################################

(13) Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-60S)

Monthly Change = -0.019 deg C

####################################

WEEKLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

8888888888

The NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature anomalies based on the week centered on July 6, 2012 are well into weak El Niño range and have been for over a month. They are presently at +0.751 deg C.

(14) Weekly NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

####################################

The weekly global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are warming in response to the seasonal ENSO signal and are at +0.275 deg C.

(15) Weekly Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

####################################

WOULD YOU LIKE TO UNDERSTAND WHY THE ATLANTIC-INDIAN-WEST PACIFIC DATASET SHIFTS UPWARD IN RESPONSE TO MAJOR EL NIÑO EVENTS?

Over the past three years, in so many posts it’s not practical to link them here, I’ve presented the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related processes that cause the blatantly obvious upward shifts in sea surface temperature anomalies for the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific data, shown above. I’ve also explained why the East Pacific shows no warming over the past 30 years. You’re welcome to use the search function on this webpage.

Better yet, you could buy a copy of my book and save yourself some time. It is available in pdf and Kindle formats. See If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their deceptive Ads? Amazon also provides a Kindle preview that runs from the introduction through a good portion of Section 2. That’s about the first 15% of the book. A copy of the introduction, table of contents, and closing can be found here.

Or if you can wait a month, my soon-to-be-completed book Who Turned on the Heat? The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño Southern Oscillationwill provide a detailed explanation of the ENSO process and about its long-term effects on global surface temperatures.

Of course, donationsare welcome and gratefully accepted, because there’s no truth to the rumor that bloggers skeptical of anthropogenic climate change are supported by big oil. No truth at all.

SOURCE

The Reynolds Optimally Interpolated Sea Surface Temperature Data (OISST) are available through the NOAA National Operational Model Archive & Distribution System (NOMADS).

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

Advertisements

About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
This entry was posted in SST Update. Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to July 2012 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

  1. corev says:

    Bob, you must have had your Kayak flying. Water turbine generator to power the laptop for the analysis and graphs? 😎

    Enjoy the party.

  2. P. Solar says:

    Hi Bob, quick distraction.
    You’ll have seen the Hansen “bell” animation over at WUWT. I commented that it would be interesting to see whether climate models reproduce this same spread of temps and the changes in the width of the bell distribution over time.

    Since I know you are quite hot on that kind of comparison I thought the idea may be of interest to you.

  3. Espen says:

    What is the base period for these anomalies? I notice that some of the basin anomalies have a strong seasonal signal from around 2000.

  4. Bob Tisdale says:

    P. Solar: Thanks for the heads-up. After I publish my book, it may make it to a blog post. You realize, I assume, that it plays off the base years used by GISS.

  5. Bob Tisdale says:

    Espen: NOAA uses 1971 to 2000 for their climatology.

  6. Green Sand says:

    Hi Bob, many thanks for the comprehensive info. Watching the evolution of this El Nino event is proving to be interesting, whilst there is no such thing as normal, this event just does not appear to be “intensifying”.

    Whilst SST’s appear to be following an expected transition, sea sub-surface not so clear?
    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2012&month=08

    Will be interesting watching how the next few months develop, thanks again for your insight.

  7. Pingback: How warm was the world in July, amidst all historic heat waves? « Fabius Maximus

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s