Another Peer-Reviewed Paper Predicting the Cessation of Global Warming Will Last At Least Another Decade

A few days ago, the Georgia Tech press release for Wyatt and Curry (2013) included a quote from Marcia Wyatt, who said the stoppage in global warming “could extend into the 2030s”.  (See the WattsUpWithThat post here and Judith Curry’s post here. The paper is here.  Also see the SpringerLink-ClimateDynamics webpage.)

Now, there’s another paper predicting the cessation of global warming will last for more than another decade, with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation-induced cooling in the Northern Hemisphere through 2027  (prompted by the North Atlantic Oscillation).

See TheHockeySchtick post New paper finds natural North Atlantic Oscillation controls Northern Hemisphere temperatures 15-20 years in advance. The paper is Li et al (2013) NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability. (Full paper is here.) The Li et al. (2013) abstract reads (my boldface):

The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming–cooling–warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15–20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. A NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT [Northern Hemisphere Temperature], which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971–2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012–2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a sea level pressure-based index.  Sea level pressures are related to wind patterns.  And wind patterns impact how, where and when warm waters from the tropical Atlantic migrate north…which, in turn, impacts the sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic as a whole.  Li et al (2013) are basically saying that multidecadal changes in the sea level pressure and wind patterns in the North Atlantic are a useful predictor of multidecadal periods of warming and cooling in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

It’s time for the IPCC to start thinking about cutting back on their predictions of future global warming by at least 50%.  The public is catching on to the fact that if natural variability can stop global warming for 2 to 3 decades, then it also contributed to the warming from 1975 to the turn of the century—something the IPCC failed to account for in its projections.

About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
This entry was posted in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscilllation, The Pause. Bookmark the permalink.

10 Responses to Another Peer-Reviewed Paper Predicting the Cessation of Global Warming Will Last At Least Another Decade

  1. Janice Moore says:

    Thanks, Bob, for drawing our attention to yet another great piece of research. How refreshing to have the wind blowing out of the regions of TRUTH, for once. The tide has turned. Truth is on the march.

  2. Bob Tisdale says:

    As always, thanks for the kind words, Janice. Enjoy your weekend!!!


  3. tallbloke says:

    Hi Bob,
    Yes indeed, I have been asking why it is that the mainstream climatologists don’t seem to be able to bring them themselves to admit that if natural variation can overcome the awesome heating power of co2 in it’s negativephase, it mus have contributed at least half the warming in its positive phase. Funny that isn’t it?

    By the way, the part of Li’s abstract that really needed highlighting was this:

    due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes

    Once we can stop Svalgaard misdirecting everyone over the inability of the Sun to heat the oceans by more than 0.07C over the solar cycle, we’ll be getting closer to home. The reality is, the Sun was above averagely active all the way from 1934 to 2003, and raised OHC all the way to 2003. Now it’s falling, though you wouldn’t know it was unless you’d read Pielke Senior’s comment about Levitus leaving out the ARGO buoys which show more cooling than he likes.

  4. Janice Moore says:

    Thanks, Bob — you, too!!!

  5. It is encouraging to see increasing numbers of academics projecting cooling into the 2020s and 30s.What is amazing to me is the past inability of the vast academic climate science industry to see, admit and state the obvious.
    Everyone can see plainly that temperatures rose from about 1910 – 1940+/- fell from there to the mid 70s and rose from there to about 2003. Wonders ! a sixty year cycle!! . What on earth will happen next?
    Lo and behold there is a millennial cycle – which looks like it too peaked at about the same time. See Figs 3 and 4 at the last post at
    Dare we think using Ockhams razor that it too will repeat? It seems that that is a leap of the imagination beyond practically everyone in the business.
    The sun is the main climate driver and continues to shine and solar “activity” correlates well with temperature. ( see Fig 3 CD from Steinhilber

    Click to access 1118965109.full.pdf

    If you want to see which way solar activity has been and is heading go to the Oulu neutron monitor. Because of the thermal inertia of the oceans It has been estimated that there is about a 12 year lag between the cosmic ray flux and the temperature data. see Fig3 in Usoskin et al…19U. so we can get a glimpse into the future.
    Using these simple ,transparent and reasonable observations it is possible to make useful predictions for several centuries ahead. These can be tested against the data and easily amended as the data comes in. For an estimate of the timing and amount of the coming cooling check the li my blog at the link above.

  6. Pingback: Will their Failure to Properly Simulate Multidecadal Variations In Surface Temperatures Be the Downfall of the IPCC? | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

  7. Pingback: Will their Failure to Properly Simulate Multidecadal Variations In Surface Temperatures Be the Downfall of the IPCC? | Watts Up With That?

  8. kuhnkat says:

    The alarmists used to rant that we need 30 years of no warming to prove anything. 17 and counting… 8>)

  9. kuhnkat says:

    Dr. Norman, your link to Harvard does not return the page. Do I need an account or is it broken??

  10. kuhnkat says:

    added the “…19u” and works fine.

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