Mid-January 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

The sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific (5S-5N, 170W-120W) are a commonly used metric for the frequency, strength and duration of El Niño and La Niña events.  For the week centered on Wednesday January 15, 2014, they were at about -0.6 deg C.  That is, they’ve crossed the threshold of La Niña conditions (are cooler than -0.5 deg C).   But don’t get too excited.  This is a little late in the current ENSO season for the formation of a full-fledged La Niña and way too early for the formation of one that might last into the next ENSO season.

Weekly NINO3.4

Weekly NINO3.4

Additionally, while the central equatorial Pacific (NINO3.4 region) are showing negative anomalies, the NINO1+2 region (10S-0, 90W-80W) in the far eastern tropical Pacific are now showing warm anomalies (about +0.6 deg C), after being below normal for most of last year.

Weekly NINO1+2

Weekly NINO1+2

Global sea surface temperature anomalies are at about +0.2 deg C for the week centered on January 15th, compared to the base years of 1971-2000.

Weekly Global

Weekly Global


Why should you be interested?  Sea surface temperature records indicate El Niño and La Niña events are responsible for the warming of global sea surface temperature anomalies over the past 30 years, not manmade greenhouse gases.  I’ve searched sea surface temperature records for more than 5 years now, and I’ve searched ocean heat content records for more than 4 years, and I can find no evidence of an anthropogenic greenhouse gas signal.  That is, the data indicates the warming of the global oceans has been caused by Mother Nature, not anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

For a further discussion, see the essay (pdf) titled The Manmade Global Warming Challenge. (It’s 42MB, but it’s free and worth the download time.)

Last year, I published my e-book (pdf) about the phenomena called El Niño and La Niña.  It’s titled Who Turned on the Heat? with the subtitle The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño Southern Oscillation.  It is intended for persons (with or without technical backgrounds) interested in learning about El Niño and La Niña events and in understanding the natural causes of the warming of our global oceans for the past 30 years.  Because land surface air temperatures simply exaggerate the natural warming of the global oceans over annual and multidecadal time periods, the vast majority of the warming taking place on land is natural as well.  The book is the product of years of research of the satellite-era sea surface temperature data that’s available to the public via the internet.  It presents how the data accounts for its warming—and there are no indications the warming was caused by manmade greenhouse gases.  None at all.

Who Turned on the Heat? was introduced in the blog post Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about El Niño and La Niña… …Well Just about Everything. The Updated Free Preview includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing.  The book was updated recently to correct a few typos.

Please buy a copy. (Credit/Debit Card through PayPal.  You do NOT need to open a PayPal account.) Simply scroll down to the “Don’t Have a PayPal Account” purchase option.  It’s only US$5.00.  I’ve recently lowered the price.


The Sea Surface Temperature anomaly data used in this post is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:




About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
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8 Responses to Mid-January 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

  1. Werner Brozek says:

    Thank you!
    By the way, I did not want to mention that other site at WUWT, but Hot Whopper had this to say:
    “I don’t know why he resurrected this old chart of his. It clearly shows that all his predictions have been a dismal failure.”

  2. Bob Tisdale says:

    Werner, I assume you’re talking about the Easterbrook graphs. Anyone can see how bogus they are.

  3. Andrew says:

    I am in No doubt you will find this amusing http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2014/1/21/the-empty-set.html

  4. Bob Tisdale says:

    Thanks, Andrew. I left a comment on that thread. It may take a little while for it to be moderated.

  5. Bob Tisdale says:

    Thanks, nevket240. How depressing, especially for all of the scientists and weather forecasters who rely on the TAO buoys…and me. I’ll miss those buoys.

    [sarc on] Maybe they need to set up TAO Project research cruises so the public can see the buoys up close and personal…without fear of getting crushed by sea ice. [sarc off.]

  6. Retired Engineer John says:

    Bob, have you noticed the WUWT salt chart: www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/navo/globalsss_nowcast_anim30d.gif ? It is showing an area of very low salt on the North side of the equator off the coast of South America. The chart does not show history for more than about two weeks. I just noticed this artifact, it may have been present for several weeks. It would be interesting to see if the downturn in the NINO3.4SST Index concurred with the appearance of the low salt area.
    Low salt areas are caused by the introduction of fresh water. When you look at the ATLAS of that area, there are no large rivers and certainly no way that quantity of fresh water could flow from the land. The source has to be the Ocean. When salt water freezes, it loses it’s salt due to the van der Waals’ forces in the ice crystals. The water in the Arctic Ocean is lower in salt due to this effect. The deep ocean is at 3-4 degrees C due to the 4K joules hydration energy of sodium chloride. A small amount of additional energy removal would cause the sea water to start freezing. The freezing of deep ocean water in the Antarctic has been observed to produce streams of high speed ice particles moving to the surface. I do not know if this has been reported in the literature for this region, equator, or not.
    If you look at the sea surface temperature animation and compare it to the animation of ocean salt, it appears that the flows out of the low salt areas are driving the sea surface temperature in this area. Also, the whirlpools being created by the up flow and is bringing additional nutrients to the surface and will increase the rate of photosynthesis along the equator in the Pacific. This is very interesting and bears watching as it develops.
    John Owens

  7. Bob Tisdale says:

    Thanks for the heads-up, John. I hadn’t noticed it.

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