Not a win, place or show between them. In other words, global surface temperatures are still stalled in the post-1997/98-El-Niño era. They are patiently waiting for another strong El Niño to release a batch of sunlight-created warm water from below the surface of the tropical Pacific before they resume their step-like climb in Trenberth-declared “big jumps”.
Initial Note: This post will serve as the December 2013 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) Temperature Anomaly Update. The standard format for the post follows this introduction of the 2013 annual results.
GISS AND NCDC ANNUAL REPORTS
On January 21st, GISS and NCDC published their 2013 results for global surface temperatures. The UKMO update will follow in a few weeks.
The GISS Global Temperature Update Through 2013 from James Hansen (yes, a retired James Hansen apparently is still involved at GISS), Makiko Sato and Reto Ruedy begins (my boldface):
Summary. Global surface temperature in 2013 was +0.6°C (~1.1°F) warmer than the 1951-1980 base period average, thus the seventh warmest year in the GISS analysis. The rate of global warming is slower in the past decade than in the prior three decades. Slower growth of net climate forcings and cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean both contribute to the slower warming rate, with the latter probably the more important effect. The tropical Pacific cooling is probably unforced variability, at least in large part. The trend toward an increased frequency of extreme hot summer anomalies over land areas has continued despite the Pacific Ocean cooling. The “bell curves” for observed temperature anomalies show that, because of larger unforced variability in winter, it is more difficult in winter than in summer to recognize the effect of global warming on the occurrence of extreme warm or cold seasons. It appears that there is substantial likelihood of an El Niño beginning in 2014, and as a result a probable record global temperature in 2014 or 2015.
Looks like Hansen is back predicting El Niños again. Considering his poor track record…well. But before we get carried away with comments about Hansen El Niño predictions, the ENSO models are also predicting weak to moderate El Niño conditions by summer. See pages 26 and 27 of NOAA’s Weekly ENSO Update. However, it’s well before the spring prediction barrier, so the models have to be taken with a pinch of salt.
The NOAA/NCDC Global – State of the Climate Report for 2013 includes (my boldface):
The year 2013 ties with 2003 as the fourth warmest year globally since records began in 1880. The annual global combined land and ocean surface temperature was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). This marks the 37th consecutive year (since 1976) that the yearly global temperature was above average. Currently, the warmest year on record is 2010, which was 0.66°C (1.19°F) above average. Including 2013, 9 of the 10 warmest years in the 134-year period of record have occurred in the 21st century. Only one year during the 20th century—1998—was warmer than 2013.
The final sentence is curious, some might think meaningless, one of those “who cares” comparisons. We all know the 1997/98 El Niño released a monumental amount of sunlight-created warm water from below the surface of the tropical Pacific and that the surface temperatures for about 67% of the surface of the global oceans shifted upwards almost 0.2 deg C as a result…and remained there, perfectly happy, until the 2009/10 El Nino. See the illustration here from the December 2013 sea surface temperature update. And, of course, the other 33% of the surface of the global oceans has warmed very little—basically shows no warming—in 32 years, as shown in the graph here.
I’ll include a comparison graph of annual data in the update next month, after the UKMO updates the HADCRUT data for December. It will be very similar to the graph using year-to-date 2013 annual data here that I created for the October 2013 Global Land+Sea Surface Temperature update.
Back to your regularly scheduled update:
Additional Notes: The remainder of this post includes graphs of running trends in global surface temperature anomalies for periods of 13 and 16+ years using HADCRUT4 global (land+ocean) surface temperature data. They indicate that we have not seen a warming halt this long since about 1980 for the 13-year and the 16-years+ trends.
Much of the following text is boilerplate. It is intended for those new to the presentation of global surface temperature anomaly data.
Most of the update graphs in the following start in 1979. That’s a commonly used start year for global temperature products because many of the satellite-based temperature datasets start then.
GISS LAND OCEAN TEMPERATURE INDEX (LOTI)
Introduction: The GISS Land Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) data is a product of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Starting with their January 2013 update, it uses NCDC ERSST.v3b sea surface temperature data. The impact of the recent change in sea surface temperature datasets is discussed here. GISS adjusts GHCN and other land surface temperature data via a number of methods and infills missing data using 1200km smoothing. Refer to the GISS description here. Unlike the UK Met Office and NCDC products, GISS masks sea surface temperature data at the poles where seasonal sea ice exists, and they extend land surface temperature data out over the oceans in those locations. Refer to the discussions here and here. GISS uses the base years of 1951-1980 as the reference period for anomalies. The data source is here.
Update: The December 2013 GISS global temperature anomaly is +0.60 deg C. It cooled (a drop of about -0.18 deg C) since November 2013.
NCDC GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
Introduction: The NOAA Global (Land and Ocean) Surface Temperature Anomaly dataset is a product of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NCDC merges their Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 3b (ERSST.v3b) with the Global Historical Climatology Network-Monthly (GHCN-M) version 3.2.0 for land surface air temperatures. NOAA infills missing data for both land and sea surface temperature datasets using methods presented in Smith et al (2008). Keep in mind, when reading Smith et al (2008), that the NCDC removed the satellite-based sea surface temperature data because it changed the annual global temperature rankings. Since most of Smith et al (2008) was about the satellite-based data and the benefits of incorporating it into the reconstruction, one might consider that the NCDC temperature product is no longer supported by a peer-reviewed paper.
The NCDC data source is usually here. NCDC uses 1901 to 2000 for the base years for anomalies.
Update: (Note: the NCDC has been slow with this month’s update at the normal data source webpage, so I’ve used the value listed on their State of the Climate Report for December 2013.) The December 2013 NCDC global land plus sea surface temperature anomaly was +0.62 deg C. It too dropped considerably (about -0.16 deg C) since November 2013.
NCDC Global (Land and Ocean) Surface Temperature Anomalies
UK MET OFFICE HADCRUT4 (LAGS ONE MONTH)
Introduction: The UK Met Office HADCRUT4 dataset merges CRUTEM4 land-surface air temperature dataset and the HadSST3 sea-surface temperature (SST) dataset. CRUTEM4 is the product of the combined efforts of the Met Office Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. And HadSST3 is a product of the Hadley Centre. Unlike the GISS and NCDC products, missing data is not infilled in the HADCRUT4 product. That is, if a 5-deg latitude by 5-deg longitude grid does not have a temperature anomaly value in a given month, it is not included in the global average value of HADCRUT4. The HADCRUT4 dataset is described in the Morice et al (2012) paper here. The CRUTEM4 data is described in Jones et al (2012) here. And the HadSST3 data is presented in the 2-part Kennedy et al (2012) paper here and here. The UKMO uses the base years of 1961-1990 for anomalies. The data source is here.
Update (Lags One Month): The November 2013 HADCRUT4 global temperature anomaly is +0.60 deg C. Like the other two datasets, it increased (about +0.12 deg C) between October and November 2013.
155-MONTH RUNNING TRENDS
As noted in my post Open Letter to the Royal Meteorological Society Regarding Dr. Trenberth’s Article “Has Global Warming Stalled?”, Kevin Trenberth of NCAR presented 10-year period-averaged temperatures in his article for the Royal Meteorological Society. He was attempting to show that the recent halt in global warming since 2001 was not unusual. Kevin Trenberth conveniently overlooked the fact that, based on his selected start year of 2001, the halt had lasted 12+ years, not 10.
The period from January 2001 to November 2013 is now 155-months long. Refer to the following graph of running 155-month trends from January 1880 to November 2013, using the HADCRUT4 global temperature anomaly product. The last data point in the graph is the linear trend (in deg C per decade) from January 2001 to the current month. It is basically zero. That, of course, indicates global surface temperatures have not warmed during the most recent 155-month period. Working back in time, the data point immediately before the last one represents the linear trend for the 155-month period of December 2000 to October 2013, and the data point before it shows the trend in deg C per decade for November 2000 to September 2013, and so on.
155-Month Linear Trends
The highest recent rate of warming based on its linear trend occurred during the 155-month period that ended about 2004, but warming trends have dropped drastically since then. There was a similar drop in the 1940s, and as you’ll recall, global surface temperatures remained relatively flat from the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s. Also note that the about 1980 was the last time there had been a 155-month period without global warming—before recently.
198-MONTH RUNNING TRENDS
In his RMS article, Kevin Trenberth also conveniently overlooked the fact that the discussions about the warming halt are now for a time period of about 16 years, not 10 years—ever since David Rose’s DailyMail article titled “Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released… and here is the chart to prove it”. In my response to Trenberth’s article, I updated David Rose’s graph, noting that surface temperatures in April 2013 were basically the same as they were in June 1997. We’ll use June 1997 as the start month for the running 16-year trends. The period is now 198-months long. The following graph is similar to the one above, except that it’s presenting running trends for 198-month periods.
198-Month Linear Trends
The last time global surface temperatures warmed at the minimal rate of 0.03 deg C per decade for a 198-month period was also about 1980. Also note that the sharp decline is similar to the drop in the 1940s, and, again, as you’ll recall, global surface temperatures remained relatively flat from the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s.
The most widely used metric of global warming—global surface temperatures—indicates that the rate of global warming has slowed drastically and that the duration of the halt in global warming is unusual during a period when global surface temperatures are allegedly being warmed from the hypothetical impacts of manmade greenhouse gases.
A NOTE ABOUT THE RUNNING-TREND GRAPHS
There is very little difference in the end point trends of 12+ year and 16+ year running trends if HADCRUT4 or NCDC or GISS data are used. The major difference in the graphs is with the HADCRUT4 data and it can be seen in a graph of the 12+ year trends. I suspect this is caused by the updates to the HADSST3 data that have not been applied to the ERSST.v3b sea surface temperature data used by GISS and NCDC.
The GISS, HADCRUT4 and NCDC global surface temperature anomalies are compared in the next three time-series graphs. The first graph compares the three global surface temperature anomaly products starting in 1979. Again, due to the timing of this post, the HADCRUT4 data lags the GISS and NCDC products by a month. The graph also includes the linear trends. Because the three datasets share common source data, (GISS and NCDC also use the same sea surface temperature data) it should come as no surprise that they are so similar. For those wanting a closer look at the more recent wiggles and trends, the second graph starts in 1998, which was the start year used by von Storch et al (2013) Can climate models explain the recent stagnation in global warming? They, of course found that the CMIP3 (IPCC AR4) and CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) models could NOT explain the recent halt.
The third comparison graph starts with Kevin Trenberth’s chosen year of 2001. All three of those comparison graphs present the anomalies using the base years of 1981 to 2010. Referring to their discussion under FAQ 9 here, according to NOAA:
This period is used in order to comply with a recommended World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Policy, which suggests using the latest decade for the 30-year average.
Comparison Starting in 1979
Comparison Starting in 1998
Comparison Starting in 2001
The last graph presents the average of the GISS, HADCRUT and NCDC land plus sea surface temperature anomaly products. Again because the HADCRUT4 data lags one month in this update, the most current average only includes the GISS and NCDC products. The flatness of the data since 2001 is very obvious, as is the fact that surface temperatures have rarely risen above those created by the 1997/98 El Niño.
Average of Global Land+Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Products