El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming

Many thanks to Donald Rapp for the honorable mention in this post and to Judith Curry for posting it at Climate, etc.

Climate Etc.

by Donald Rapp

Why after 400 years of La Niña precedence, did periods of El Niños dominance start in the 20th century? And why did the two periods of strong El Niño dominance in the 20th century occur during a period when the CO2 concentration was rising? Is there a link between rising CO2 and the El Niño – La Niña balance? But if there is such a link, why did El Niños become less prevalent than La Niñas from 1941 to 1976 and be in balance after 1998?

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About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
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3 Responses to El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming

  1. Thanks, Bob, and please keep up the good work.

    The running sum of the El Niño 3 index seems to correlate strongly with global temperatures in Cane (2004). This looks to me as supporting evidence for your hypothesis:
    He has therefore argued that a substantial part (if not all) of the global warming of the past ~120 years can be attributed periods of imbalance in favor of El Niños, rather than the effect of rising CO2 concentration.

    But now the consensus crew is looking to blame the changes in ENSO patterns on CO2?
    Cause-effect reversed again?

  2. Bob Tisdale says:

    Thanks, nevket240.

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