Flashback 1997 – Scientists Forecast Permanent El Ninos.

Thanks, Paul. I always enjoy things like this. Now we see papers predicting permanent La Nina domination…with periodic super El Ninos. But the models in the CMIP5 archive still can’t simulate basic processes in the tropical Pacific, like Bjerknes feedback, so all predictions are meaningless.


By Paul Homewood



Back in 1997, the BBC reported:

Scientists are warning that global warming could make the El Nino a permanent feature of the world’s weather system.

El Nino events normally occur roughly every 5 years, and last for between 12 and 18 months. However unpublished scientific research now suggests that the complex weather systems could occur every 3 years, making them a dominant weather pattern and in effect, almost permanent.

This year’s El Nino has been one of the strongest on record and has led to:

  • Droughts in Australia and Papua New Guinea.
  • Delayed monsoon in South East Asia leaving forest fires to rage out of control, blanketing the region with choking smog.
  • Storms on the Pacific coast of South and Central America from Chile to Mexico.
  • Drought in Southern Africa.
  • Threat of floods in Peru and California

In the last decade there have been 5…

View original post 345 more words

About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
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2 Responses to Flashback 1997 – Scientists Forecast Permanent El Ninos.

  1. Bernd Palmer says:

    “So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we’ll have El Nino upon El Nino, and that will become the norm.” A scientist who doesn’t understand where the energy for El Nino is coming from. Why, it comes out of the blue sky … yes, but only after La Nina has opened the shades for long enough.

  2. Pamela Gray says:

    Agreed. A series of El Nino’s would discharge what heat we have stored in the oceans. Scientists, as reported by the media and in articles, thought the same thing about the Arctic Oscillation. They said global warming would leave it stuck in the positive mode. Now they say global warming is causing to go negative.

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