June 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE WORKING TOWARD A RECORD WARM YEAR

Monthly global sea surface temperature anomalies for June are above the anomaly reached at the peak of the 2009/10 El Niño and they are close to highest anomaly reached during the response of global sea surface temperature anomalies to the 1997/98 El Niño. The following graph compares the sea surface temperature anomalies for 1997+, 2009+ and year-to-date 2014.  There are a number of reasons for the elevated global sea surface temperature anomalies:

  • The early onset of El Niño conditions. See The 2014/15 El Niño Series of posts.
  • The unusual 2013 warming event in the North Pacific. See the post here. It has persisted into 2014 and there appears to have been another even greater warming event there, exacerbated by the response to the El Niño conditions in the tropical North Pacific.
  • And the upward shifts in the sea surface temperatures of the South Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific Oceans in response to the residuals (leftovers) from the 1997/98 and 2009/10 El Niño events. See the discussion in this post under the heading of The East Pacific Versus the Rest of the World and the post here.

17 Global SSTa Development Comparison

(17) Global Sea Surface Temperature Evolution Comparison

So expect that NOAA and GISS will be proclaiming record-high global temperatures for months to come.

THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC

The monthly sea surface temperature anomalies across the entire central and eastern equatorial Pacific have remained in El Niño conditions with anomalies in excess of +0.5 deg C.   While El Niño conditions exist now, we are presently not experiencing an “official” El Niño event.  Sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific must remain at the elevated levels for a number of months before NOAA proclaims an “official” El Niño event.  Keep in mind, after the initial westerly wind bursts that initiated the start of the El Niño, the atmospheric side of ENSO has not cooperated (and is still not cooperating) in the development of an El Niño this year.   As a result, the El Niño conditions we’re presently experiencing could fizzle out if the trade winds do not start to cooperate.  Refer to the post The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 11 – Is the El Niño Dying?  Also see the rest of 2014/15 El Niño series of posts, starting at the first one, for a detailed discussion of the evolution of this El Niño.

The NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for June 2014 continue to be just above the +0.5 deg C threshold of El Nino conditions.  They are presently at +0.61 deg C, having risen about 0.07 deg C in the last month.

02 NINO3.4 SSTa

(2) NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

(5S-5N, 170W-120W)

Monthly Change = +0.072 deg C

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The sea surface temperature anomalies for the NINO3.4 region in the eastern equatorial Pacific (5S-5N, 170E-120E) are a commonly used index for the strength, frequency and duration of El Niño and La Nina events.  We keep an eye on the sea surface temperatures there because El Niño and La Niña events are the primary cause of the yearly variations in global sea surface temperatures AND they are the primary cause of the long-term warming of global sea surface temperatures over the past 30 years.   See the discussion of the East Pacific versus the Rest-of-the-World that follows.We present NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies in monthly and weekly formats in these updates.

The monthly values for the other primary NINO regions are listed below, from west to east:

  • NINO4 (5S-5N, 160E-150W) = +0.54 Deg C
  • NINO3 (5S-5N, 150W-90W) = +1.06 Deg C
  • NINO1+2 (10S-0, 90W-80W) = +1.19 Deg C

Also see the weekly data toward the end of the post.

MONTHLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP

The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for June 2014.  It was downloaded from the NOMADS website. The contour levels are set at 0.5 deg C, and white is set at zero.

00 Map

June 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.35 deg C)

MONTHLY OVERVIEW

Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies rose last month, an increase of about +0.02 deg C from May to June…with a substantial warming in the Northern Hemisphere, primarily in the North Pacific.  It was only partly offset by slight cooling of the surface of the Southern Hemisphere. The most significant warming took place once again in the North Pacific, with a massive surge of about +0.24 deg C. That rise was partly offset by the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans, where the surfaces dropped about -0.14 deg C and -0.10 deg C, respectively. The monthly Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are presently at +0.321 deg C.

01 Global

(1) Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Monthly Change = +0.016 deg C

The following map presents the change in sea surface temperature anomalies from May to June 2014.

00 Change

(00) Change in Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (June 2014 Anomalies Minus May 2014 Anomalies)

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THE EAST PACIFIC VERSUS THE REST OF THE WORLD

NOTE: This section of the updates has been revised.  We discussed the reasons for the changes in the post Changes to the Monthly Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Updates.

For years, we have shown and discussed that the surfaces of the global oceans have not warmed uniformly during the satellite era of sea surface temperature data. In fact, some portions of the global oceans have cooled during that 3+ decade period.   One simply has to look at a trend map for the period of 1982 to 2013 to see where the ocean surfaces have warmed and where they have not.  Yet the climate science community has not addressed this.  See the post Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans.

Trend Map – 1982 to 2013

The North Atlantic (data illustrated later in the post) has had the greatest warming over the past 3+ decades, but the reason for this is widely known.  The North Atlantic has an additional mode of natural variability called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.  If you’re not familiar with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation see the NOAAFrequently Asked Questions About the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) webpage and the postsAn Introduction To ENSO, AMO, and PDO — Part 2 and Multidecadal Variations and Sea Surface Temperature Reconstructions.  As a result of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the surface of the North Atlantic warmed at a rate that was more than twice the rate of the surface of the rest of the global oceans.  See the trend comparison graph here.

The East Pacific Ocean also stands out in the trend map above.  Some portions of its surfaces warmed and others cooled.  It comes as no surprise then that the linear trend of the East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 dataset is so low.  With the El Nino conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific, it has acquired a slight positive trend, but it’s still far below the approximate +0.15 deg C/decade warming rate predicted by the CMIP5 climate models. Please see Figure 19 in the post Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans. (Note that the region also includes portions of the Arctic and Southern Oceans.) That is, there has been little to no warming of the sea surfaces of the East Pacific (from pole to pole) in 32 years. The East Pacific is not a small region. It represents about 33% of the surface area of the global oceans. The East Pacific linear trend varies very slightly with each monthly update. But it doesn’t vary greatly between El Niño and La Niña events.

03 East Pac SSTa

(3) East Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-90N, 180-80W)

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That leaves the largest region of the trend map, which includes the South Atlantic, the Indian and West Pacific Oceans, with the corresponding portions of the Arctic and Southern Oceans.  Sea surface temperatures there warmed in very clear steps, in response to the significant 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño/La Niña events.  It also appears as though the sea surface temperature anomalies of this dataset June have made another upward shift in response to the 2009/10 El Niño and 2010/11 La Niña events.  I further described the ENSO-related processes that cause these upward steps in the recent post Answer to the Question Posed at Climate Etc.: By What Mechanism Does an El Niño Contribute to Global Warming?

04 S. Atl-Indian-W. Pac SSTa

(4) Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies For The South Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific Oceans

(Weighted Average of 0-90N, 40E-180 @ 27.9% And 90S-0, 80W-180 @72.1%)

####################################

The periods used for the average temperature anomalies for the South Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific subset between the significant El Niño events of 1982/83, 1986/87/88, 1997/98, and 2009/10 are determined as follows.  Using the original NOAA Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for the official months of those El Niño events, I shifted (lagged) those El Niño periods by six months to accommodate the lag between NINO3.4 SST anomalies and the response of the South Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific Oceans, then deleted the South Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific data that corresponds to those significant El Niño events. I then averaged the South Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific Oceans sea surface temperature anomalies between those El Niño-related gaps.

The “Nov 2010 to Present” average varies with each update.

The Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of the East Pacific Ocean, or approximately 33% of the surface area of the global oceans, have shown little to no long-term warming since 1982 based on the linear trend. And between upward shifts, the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the South Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific subset (about 52.5% of the global ocean surface area) remain relatively flat, though they actually cool slightly. Anthropogenic forcings are said to be responsible for most of the rise in global surface temperatures over this period, but the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly graphs of those regions discussed above prompt a two-part question: Since 1982, what anthropogenic global warming processes would overlook the sea surface temperatures of 33% of the global oceans and have an impact on the other 52% but only during the months of the significant El Niño events of 1986/87/88, 1997/98 and 2009/10?

They were also discussed in great detail in my recently published book Who Turned on the Heat? The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The Free Preview includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing. Also see the blog post Everything You Every Wanted to Know about El Niño and La Niña… for an overview.It’s now sale priced at US$5.00.Please click here to buy a copy. (Paypal or Credit/Debit Card.  You do not need to open a PayPal account.)

STANDARD NOTE ABOUT THE DATA

The MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 sea surface temperature anomaly data from November 1981 to June 2014, as it is presented by the NOAA NOMADS website linked at the end of the post.  NOAA uses the base years of 1971-2000 for this dataset.  I’ve added the 13-month running-average filter to smooth out the seasonal variations.

MONTHLY INDIVIDUAL OCEAN AND HEMISPHERIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE UPDATES

05 N. Hem SSTa

(5) Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

Monthly Change = +0.141 deg C

####################################

06 S. Hem SSTa

(6) Southern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

Monthly Change = -0.067 deg C

####################################

07 N. Atl SSTa

(7) North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 70N, 80W to 0)

Monthly Change = +0.054 deg C

####################################

08 S. Atl SSTa

(8) South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)

Monthly Change = -0.139 deg C

####################################

09 Pac SSTa

(9) Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(60S to 65N, 120E to 80W)

Monthly Change = +0.101 Deg C

####################################

10 N. Pac SSTa

(10) North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 65N, 100E to 90W)

Monthly Change = +0.239 Deg C

####################################

11 S. Pac SSTa

(11) South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 120E to 70W)

Monthly Change = -0.029 deg C

####################################

12 Indian SSTa

(12) Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(60S to 30N, 20E to 120E)

Monthly Change = -0.104 deg C

####################################

13 Arctic SSTa

(13) Arctic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(65N to 90N)

Monthly Change = +0.198 deg C

####################################

14 Southern SSTa

(14) Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-60S)

Monthly Change = 0.000 deg C

####################################

WEEKLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

Weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies appear to have peaked. They’ve been cycling just above +0.5 for a few weeks. They will likely drop over the next month because the atmospheric side of ENSO is still not cooperating with the development of the El Niño.

15 Weekly NINO3.4 SSTa

(15) Weekly NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

####################################

Weekly global sea surface temperature anomalies have taken another major upward swing, primarily in response to the warming in the North Pacific. They are now at +0.35 deg C.

16 Weekly Global SSTa

(16) Weekly Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

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INTERESTED IN LEARNING MORE ABOUT HOW AND WHY THE GLOBAL OCEANS INDICATE THEY’VE WARMED NATURALLY?

Why should you be interested?  The hypothesis of manmade global warming depends on manmade greenhouse gases being the cause of the recent warming. But the sea surface temperature record indicates El Niño and La Niña events are responsible for the warming of global sea surface temperature anomalies over the past 32 years, not manmade greenhouse gases.  Scroll back up to the discussion of the East Pacific versus the Rest of the World.  I’ve searched sea surface temperature records for more than 4 years, and I can find no evidence of an anthropogenic greenhouse gas signal.  That is, the warming of the global oceans has been caused by Mother Nature, not anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

I’ve recently published my e-book (pdf) about the phenomena called El Niño and La Niña.  It’s titled Who Turned on the Heat? with the subtitle The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño Southern Oscillation.  It is intended for persons (with or without technical backgrounds) interested in learning about El Niño and La Niña events and in understanding the natural causes of the warming of our global oceans for the past 30 years.  Because land surface air temperatures simply exaggerate the natural warming of the global oceans over annual and multidecadal time periods, the vast majority of the warming taking place on land is natural as well.  The book is the product of years of research of the satellite-era sea surface temperature data that’s available to the public via the internet.  It presents how the data accounts for its warming—and there are no indications the warming was caused by manmade greenhouse gases.  None at all.

Who Turned on the Heat? was introduced in the blog post Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about El Niño and La Niña… …Well Just about Everything. The Free Preview includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing.

Please buy a copy. (Paypal or Credit/Debit Card). You do not need to have a PayPal account. Simply scroll down to the “Don’t Have a PayPal Account” purchase option. It’s now sale priced at US$5.00.

SOURCES

The Sea Surface Temperature anomaly data used in this post are available through the NOAA NOMADS website (Both NOMAD2 and NOMAD3 websites have been down recently, which leaves us with NOMAD1):

http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

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About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
This entry was posted in SST Update. Bookmark the permalink.

14 Responses to June 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

  1. Pingback: The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 12 – July 2014 Update – The Feedbacks Need to Kick in Soon | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

  2. Pingback: The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 12 – July 2014 Update – The Feedbacks Need to Kick in Soon | Watts Up With That?

  3. Kristian says:

    Bob,

    I’m not so sure you should lump the South Atlantic together with the Indian and the West Pacific Oceans. It clearly follows a different course.

  4. Bob Tisdale says:

    Kristian: I’ll agree the South Atlantic does not follow the upward shifts of the East Indian and West Pacific oceans, but adding the South Atlantic and West Indian data to the East Indian and West Pacific does not increase the long-term trend (it decreases it) and the two subsets correlate relatively highly at 0.92.

    There are divergences from time to time, but all in all, we still see the upward shifts in response to the stronger El Niño events.

    Including the the South Atlantic and West Indian data with the East Indian and West Pacific data allows us to divide the global oceans into three subsets: (1) North Atlantic (which has the additional mode of natural variability called the AMO), (2) the East Pacific (which shows little warming), and (3) the rest of the world’s oceans, the South Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific (which shift upwards in response to strong El Niños).

    Regards

  5. Ulric Lyons says:

    Thanks.

  6. Pingback: VERY, VERY PRELIMINARY July 2014 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Update | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

  7. Nice. Good job. Thx.

  8. Pingback: Axel Timmermann and Kevin Trenberth Highlight the Importance of Natural Variability in Global Warming… | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

  9. Pingback: Alarmists Bizarrely Claim “Just what AGW predicts” about the Record High Global Sea Surface Temperatures | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

  10. Pingback: Alarmists Bizarrely Claim “Just what AGW predicts” about the Record High Global Sea Surface Temperatures in 2014 * The New World

  11. Pingback: Does the Uptick in Global Surface Temperatures in 2014 Help the Growing Difference between Climate Models and Reality? | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

  12. Pingback: North Pacific Update: The Blob’s Strengthening Suggests It’s Not Ready to Depart | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

  13. Pingback: North Pacific Update: The Blob’s Strengthening Suggests It’s Not Ready to Depart | Watts Up With That?

  14. Pingback: Did ENSO and the “Monster” Kelvin Wave Contribute to the Record High Global Sea Surface Temperatures in 2014? | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations

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