Preliminary monthly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies have dropped below the +0.5 deg C threshold of El Niño conditions, while the preliminary monthly global data are still elevated. Weekly NINO3.4 data are well below the threshold of El Niño conditions. And weekly global sea surface temperatures are still cycling up at record high levels, which we discussed in the June update and will mention again later in this post.
NINO REGION SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
The sea surface temperatures of the equatorial Pacific are dropping for the most part—all but the NINO1+2 region which have taken another upswing. Will NINO3.4 anomalies drop below zero this week?
The following are the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for the 4 most-often-used NINO regions for the week centered on Wednesday July 23st. From west to east:
- NINO4 (5S-5N, 160E-150W) = +0.41
- NINO3.4 (5S-5N, 170W-120W) = +0.08
- NINO3 (5S-5N, 150W-90W) = +0.57
- NINO1+2 (10S-0, 90W-80W) = +1.37
And the following series of graphs shows the weekly data for those regions since January 1990.
GENERAL NOTES – BOILERPLATE
The July 2014 Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data through the NOAA NOMADS website won’t be official until Monday, August 11,, 2014. Refer to the schedule on the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Frequently Asked Questions webpage. The following are the preliminary Global and NINO3.4 SST anomalies for July 2014 that the NOMADS website prepares based on incomplete data for the month. I’ve also included the weekly data through the week centered on July 23, 2014, but I’ve shortened the span of the weekly data. As noted in the recent mid-July 2013 update, I started using 2001 for the start of the graphs of the weekly data so that the variations can be seen AND so that you can see how “flat” global sea surface temperature anomalies had been until recently. Looks like we’ll need another strong La Niña event to bring the global sea surface temperatures back down. The base years for anomalies are 1971-2000, which are the standard base years from the NOAA NOMADS website for this dataset.
PRELIMINARY MONTHLY DATA
The preliminary global sea surface temperature anomalies are presently at about +0.32 deg C. Based on the preliminary data, they cooled slightly (a decrease of about -0.028 deg C) since June. With the apparent upward shift in the North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies last year, and the early El Niño conditions this year, we’re looking at the possibility of record-high global sea surface temperatures in 2014. The other factor, of course, is the upward shift in the sea surface temperatures of the South Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific subset in response to the 1997/98 El Niño. See the discussion in this post under the heading of The East Pacific Versus the Rest of the World in the post here. We’ll have to watch and see whether the fall from the early El Niño conditions has an impact on the global data.
Monthly Global SST Anomalies
The sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region in the eastern equatorial Pacific (5S-5N, 170W-120W) are a commonly used index for the strength, frequency, and duration of El Niño and La Niña events. See the illustration here for the location of the NINO3.4 region. Based on the preliminary data, July 2014 NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies are now slightly below the +0.5 deg C threshold of an El Niño event. They’re presently at +0.44 deg C. The threshold for El Niño conditions is considered to be warmer than or equal to +0.5 deg C (and for a La Niña, it’s cooler than or equal to -0.5 deg C). So the reading of +0.46 indicates the tropical Pacific has just dropped back into ENSO-neutral conditions based on the preliminary monthly data. Also refer to the weekly data that follows, because the weekly NINO3.4 data have been dropping like a brick in recent weeks.
Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomalies
Weekly NINO3.4 region (5S-5N, 170W-120W) sea surface temperature anomalies for the week centered on July 23, 2014 are well below the threshold of El Niño conditions. The weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies were approximately +0.08 deg C. They’re closer to a zero anomaly than they are to El Niño conditions.
Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomalies
The weekly Global sea surface temperature anomalies have been cycling near record high levels recently. They are presently about +0.36 deg C.
Weekly Global SST Anomalies
INTERESTED IN LEARNING MORE ABOUT THE EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA AND THEIR LONG-TERM EFFECTS ON GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES?
Why should you be interested? Sea surface temperature records indicate El Niño and La Niña events are responsible for the warming of global sea surface temperature anomalies over the past 30 years, not manmade greenhouse gases. I’ve searched sea surface temperature records for more than 4 years and ocean heat content records for more than 3 years, and I can find no evidence of an anthropogenic greenhouse gas signal in either dataset. That is, the warming of the global oceans has been caused by naturally occurring, sunlight-fueled, coupled ocean-atmosphere processes, not anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
Last year I published an ebook (pdf) about the phenomena called El Niño and La Niña. It’s titled Who Turned on the Heat? with the subtitle The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño Southern Oscillation. It is intended for persons (with or without technical backgrounds) interested in learning about El Niño and La Niña events and in understanding the natural causes of the warming of our global oceans for the past 31+ years. Because land surface air temperatures simply exaggerate the natural warming of the global oceans over annual and multidecadal time periods, the vast majority of the warming taking place on land is natural as well. The book is the product of years of research of the satellite-era sea surface temperature data that’s available to the public via the internet. It presents how the data accounts for its warming—and there are no indications the warming was caused by manmade greenhouse gases. None at all.
Who Turned on the Heat? was introduced in the blog post Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about El Niño and La Niña… …Well Just about Everything. The Free Preview includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing.
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The Sea Surface Temperature anomaly data used in this post is available through the NOAA NOMADS website: