New UAH Lower Troposphere Temperature Data Show No Global Warming for More Than 18 Years

Dr. Roy Spencer introduced the updated and much corrected UAH atmospheric temperature data in his blog post Version 6.0 of the UAH Temperature Dataset Released: New LT Trend = +0.11 C/decade.  The new temperature anomaly data for the lower troposphere, mid troposphere and lower stratosphere are presently in beta form for comment. That is, they’re not official…yet.  I suspect the update will not go over well with the catastrophic-anthropogenic-global-warming crowd.  Links to the version 6.0 beta data are at the bottom of Roy’s post, which also contains a detailed discussion of the updates.  So if you have questions, please ask them at Roy Spencer’s blog through the above link.  This post is a simple data presentation.

The version 6.0 beta temperature anomaly data for the lower troposphere used in this post are here.

In this post, we’ll take a quick look at the new UAH version 6.0 beta lower troposphere temperature anomaly data, comparing it to:

  • the current UAH version 5.6 data
  • the RSS lower troposphere temperature data.

But first…

BASED ON LINEAR TRENDS, THE NEW UAH LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE DATA SHOW NO WARMING FOR 18+ YEARS, LIKE RSS

For Figure 1, I’ve extended the new UAH version 6.0 beta and the RSS lower troposphere temperature anomaly data as far back in time as they could go while showing no warming based on their linear trends.  The new UAH data show no warming for 219 months, and for the RSS data, it’s 220 months.

Figure 1

Figure 1

A QUICK OVERVIEW OF LOWER TROPOSPHERE TEMPERATURE DATA

The following is a reprint of the initial discussion of lower troposphere temperature data from the monthly updates. The most recent update is here.

Special sensors (microwave sounding units) aboard satellites have orbited the Earth since the late 1970s, allowing scientists to calculate the temperatures of the atmosphere at various heights above sea level.  The level nearest to the surface of the Earth is the lower troposphere. The lower troposphere temperature data include the altitudes of zero to about 12,500 meters, but are most heavily weighted to the altitudes of less than 3000 meters.  See the left-hand cell of the illustration here.  The lower troposphere temperature data are calculated from a series of satellites with overlapping operation periods, not from a single satellite. The monthly UAH lower troposphere temperature data is the product of the Earth System Science Center of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). UAH provides the data broken down into numerous subsets.  See the webpage here [version 5.6 data].  The UAH lower troposphere temperature data are supported by Christy et al. (2000) MSU Tropospheric Temperatures: Dataset Construction and Radiosonde Comparisons.  Additionally, Dr. Roy Spencer of UAH presents at his blog the monthly UAH TLT data updates a few days before the release at the UAH website.  Those posts are also cross posted at WattsUpWithThat.  UAH uses the base years of 1981-2010 for anomalies. The UAH lower troposphere temperature data are for the latitudes of 85S to 85N, which represent more than 99% of the surface of the globe.

UAH VERSION 5.6 VERSUS UAH VERSION 6.0 BETA

Figure 2 compares the current version 5.6 UAH lower troposphere temperature anomaly data to the recently released version 6.0 beta. The comparisons start in the Januarys of 1979, 1998 and 2001 and run through March 2015.  The first full year of the UAH lower troposphere temperature data is 1979, while 1998 and 2001 are commonly used as start years during discussions of the recent slowdown in global surface and global lower troposphere temperatures. They are the same time periods we present in the monthly surface and lower troposphere temperature anomaly updates.  See the most recent update here.

Figure 2

Figure 2

Since 1979, the new version (v6.0 beta) of the UAH lower troposphere temperature data show a noticeably lower warming rate than current version 5.6 data.  For the periods starting in 1998 and 2001, the new beta version data show cooling of the lower troposphere based on the linear trends, while the current 5.6 version data show warming.

RSS VERSUS UAH VERSION 6.0 BETA

The warming rate since 1979 for the new UAH data is slightly less than (basically the same as) the lower troposphere temperature anomaly data from RSS. The shorter term cooling rates since 1998 and 2001 are also comparable.  See the graphs in Figure 3.

Figure 3

Figure 3

CLOSING

The RSS lower troposphere temperature data used to be an outlier, showing much lower trends than the surface temperature data and the UAH lower troposphere data. That will no longer be the case with the new UAH version 6.0 data.

SOURCES

The UAH version 6.0 beta lower troposphere temperature anomaly data are here.

The UAH version 5.6 lower troposphere temperature anomaly data are here.

The RSS lower troposphere temperature anomaly data are here.

 

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About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
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55 Responses to New UAH Lower Troposphere Temperature Data Show No Global Warming for More Than 18 Years

  1. Werner Kohl says:

    Thanks, Bob, for that really interesting overview.
    Yes, it has been said before that the new UAH version will get closer to the RSS values.

    Not a good message for all alarmists.

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  3. Thanks, Bob.
    I was expecting UAH v6 to get closer to RSS because Dr. Spencer had said that would happen.

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  5. Kristian says:

    This is indeed an interesting development. What makes it most interesting is this:

    The warmists claim that modern global warming/climate change comes as a result of an ‘enhanced greenhouse effect’. Well, the ‘greenhouse effect’ is supposed to be – by definition – a MEAN GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE effect. It is not about the atmospheric temperature. It is not about the temperature of the bulk ocean. It is specifically meant to be about the surface temperature. The global surface of the Earth is supposed to be warmer, on average, WITH a ‘greenhouse effect’ than WITHOUT. So it follows that an ‘enhanced GHE’ would necessarily need to make the average global surface temps rise.

    The problem is that the mechanism for such postulated atmosphere-induced warming of the surface cannot occur without defined layers of the atmosphere itself warming in step with the surface (in reality even before the surface, but one wouldn’t be able to see that). That’s how the ‘raised effective radiating level’ explanation works.

    So if the lower troposphere isn’t warming (since 1996/97), then, if the surface still warms over the same period, this cannot be the result of an ‘enhanced GHE’. There must be other processes causing it.

    This conclusion is corroborated by surface radiation data from CERES. It shows that global mean DWLWIR from the atmosphere to the surface has diminished in intensity since 2000. At the same time, global mean UWLWIR from the surface up has increased. So the cooling ability of the global surface of the Earth via radiation (its ‘net’ radiation loss (its ‘radiant heat loss’)) has become significantly STRONGER (by about 1.5 W/m2) over the last 15 years, NOT weaker:

    All the while, global OHC has gone up. And so has the average global surface temp (according to GISS, HadCRU and NOAA).

  6. Bob Tisdale says:

    Hi David Appell. Your comments automatically go into the spam folder. I noted your recent one for this thread there just now, before deleting it.

    First, let me remind you again. You’re welcome to comment here on a designated thread, one that I created thinking of you:
    https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/10/11/a-thread-for-whiny-ass-trolls/
    Second, your comment on this thread was another example of why I’ve permanently banned you from commenting on other threads. You once again made erroneous claims about me, and argued about topics I did not address in this post. Thus my designating you as a WHINY-ASS TROLL.

    Have a good day, David.

  7. Centinel2012 says:

    Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:
    The corrected data fits what we experience not what the politicians tell us is happening!

  8. Ibrahim says:

    Bob,

    I think If you take Pinatubo into account 1992 would have been the warmest year.
    I also think that the jump in temperatures which you always say happened in 1998 was in 1992.

    see http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n3/extref/ngeo2098-s1.pdf

  9. Bob Tisdale says:

    Ibrahim, there were jumps in surface temperature for much of the global oceans in responses to the 1997/98 El Nino AND the 1986/87/88 El Nino:

    The impacts of Mount Pinatubo show up as the dip and rebound between them.

    The graph is from the most recent sea surface temperature update:
    https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2015/04/13/march-2015-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update/

    Cheers

  10. Ibrahim says:

    Bob,

    You should look at the global temperatures.
    Whitout the Pinatubo 1992 would have been + 0,7 C (Giss-wise).

  11. Bob Tisdale says:

    Ibrahim, I believe you’re underestimating the strength of Mount Pinatubo and over estimating the strength of the 1991/92 El Nino.

  12. Ibrahim says:

    Bob,

    I think you mean both time over estimating.
    You should take a look at the link I gave :Supplementary Figure 2: Santer et al.

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