Close But No Cigar – NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Are a Tick (0.1 deg C) above La Niña Threshold

This is a quick ENSO update.

NOAA’s weekly sea surface temperature anomaly data for the NINO regions (based on the original Reynolds OI.v2 data) are furnished on Mondays. Today’s update for the week centered on June 22, 2016 shows the sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N, 170W-120W), which NOAA uses to define El Niño and La Niña events and their strengths, are at -0.4 deg C…a tick above the -0.5 deg C threshold of La Niña conditions. 

Figure 1

Figure 1

The top graph in Figure 1 includes a time-series graph of the weekly NINO3.4 region sea surface temperature anomalies from the NOAA/CPC Monthly Atmospheric & SST Indices webpage, specifically the data here.  The base years for anomalies for the NOAA/CPC data are referenced to 1981-2010. And in the bottom graph, the evolution of the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies in 2015/16 are compared to 1997/98, another very strong El Niño.  Recall that 2015 started the year at or near El Niño conditions, where that was not the case in 1997.

NOTE: When looking at any graph of sea surface temperature anomalies of the equatorial Pacific, keep in mind that the uncertainties of the data prevent us from knowing the actual sea surface temperatures.   We illustrated and discussed this in the post The Differences between Sea Surface Temperature Datasets Prevent Us from Knowing Which El Niño Was Strongest According NINO3.4 Region Temperature Data.

Expect the full ENSO update in a week or two.

WANT TO LEARN MORE ABOUT EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA EVENTS AND THEIR AFTEREFFECTS?

My ebook Who Turned on the Heat? goes into a tremendous amount of detail to explain El Niño and La Niña processes and the long-term aftereffects of strong El Niño events.  Who Turned on the Heat? weighs in at a whopping 550+ pages, about 110,000+ words. It contains somewhere in the neighborhood of 380 color illustrations. In pdf form, it’s about 23MB. It includes links to more than a dozen animations, which allow the reader to view ENSO processes and the interactions between variables.

Who Turned on the Heat? – The Unexpected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño-Southern Oscillation IS NOW FREE.  Click here for a copy (23MB .pdf).

ALSO

ANOTHER FREE EBOOK

I also published On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control (25MB .pdf) back in November 2015.  The introductory post is here.  It also includes detailed discussions of El Niño events and their aftereffects in Chapter 3.7…though not as detailed as in Who Turned on the Heat?

 

 

 

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About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
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10 Responses to Close But No Cigar – NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Are a Tick (0.1 deg C) above La Niña Threshold

  1. Pingback: La Niña in den Startlöchern: Die Erde kühlt ab! ENSO-Update Juni 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung

  2. Morley Sutter says:

    Bob, a slightly oft-topic question if I may: The CBC quoted a “Climate Scientist” who said that the Blob was still having a warming effect because its warm water was hiding 200 metres below the surface according to measurements by Argo floats. Is this true?
    I have tried to find the appropriate Argo temperatures without success.
    Thank you in advance.
    Morley

  3. Bob Tisdale says:

    Morley, as of May, the sea surface temperature anomalies in The Blob region were still elevated:

    So it’s not necessarily true that it’s only below the surface.

    And the most recent 5-day reanalysis from NOAA’s GODAS website shows elevated subsurface temperatures to depths of 300 meters in the neighborhood of The Blob:

  4. Pingback: Absturz der globalen Temperaturen! Ungewöhnlich schwache Sonne – La Niña kommt: „Global Warming“ Reality Check Juni 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung

  5. Pingback: La Niña kommt: Die Erde kühlt ab! ENSO-Update Juli 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung

  6. Pingback: Schwache Sonne – kühle Erde! La Niña ist da: „Global Warming“ Reality Check Juli 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung

  7. Pingback: La Niña ist da – ENSO-Modelle völlig uneinig über den weiteren Verlauf: ENSO-Update August 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung

  8. Pingback: Das Jahr 2016 ist nun kälter als 1998: „Global Warming“ Reality Check August 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung

  9. Pingback: Das Jahr 2016 bleibt kälter als 1998: „Global Warming“ Reality Check September 2016 – wobleibtdieglobaleerwaermung

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