Sorry About The Lack of New Posts

I’m on holiday. I’m having too much fun someplace where it’s warm and sunny…and my desktop and laptop with my standard spreadsheets are back home where it’s cold and snowy.   I’m not sure when I’ll be back there, if ever.

Cheers!

Advertisements

About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

47 Responses to Sorry About The Lack of New Posts

  1. Robert MacLean says:

    Enjoy the warm weather! We all appreciate your efforts to educate us.

  2. stevekeohane says:

    Take a well-earned break. Thanks again for all you do.

  3. Janice Moore says:

    Glad, so very glad, Bob, to hear that you are taking a nice long (perhaps permanent!) vacation. We will miss your superbly erudite, well-written, thorough, world-class, data analysis, though, if you don’t file a report from “somewhere in the Pacific” ONCE in awhile… 😦

    Enjoy yourself, dear hardworking man who has done SO MUCH for the cause of freedom from the enviroprofiteers! 🙂

    Your admiring student,

    Janice

  4. Peter Paulson says:

    Bob

    You have to come back. We your readers are left out in the cold.

    Peter

  5. eastvns says:

    Stop by on the way home. Discuss boundary layer psychometrics, corporations moving to Ireland, whisky, or fast cars.

  6. Mark Green says:

    Boohoo! !! We need your posts!!!

  7. nzrobin says:

    Wishing you a wonderful holiday. If it’s too hard to go back to the cold, maybe just get another computer and connect up where it’s warm. We won’t mind.

  8. Hi Bob, Can we at least get a ‘wish you were here’ pic?! Enjoy and Cheers, John
    Here’s a funny for you and all to enjoy..see what happens when Aussies get a few hot days out some blocking Highs..so much for that typecast bloke from Downunder; a piece sarcastically entitled “What a relief that climate change doesn’t really exist” http://www.smh.com.au/comment/what-a-relief-that-climate-change-doesnt-really-exist-20170214-gucb48.html

  9. co2islife says:

    Bob, if you even need a break, please feel free to repost any of my articles over at CO2isLife. I just finished this one that links to your site.

    Climate “Science” on Trial; Cherry Picking Locations to Manufacture Warming
    https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2017/02/18/a-tale-of-two-cities-cherry-picking-locations-to-manufacture-warming/

  10. co2islife says:

    Bob, I just finished this. You may find it interesting. It uses the models as evidence for a court case.
    Climate “Science” on Trial; The Criminal Case Against the Alarmists
    https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2017/02/21/climate-science-on-trial-the-criminal-case-against-the-alarmists/

  11. co2islife says:

    Bob, I just posted the following message over on WUWT. Do you have a link to any data that may apply?. I’d like to run a regression against Temperature. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

    Mr. Watts, I may have a great project for your Blog. The IPCC Models provide the evidence to shoot down the AGW Theory. The IPCC Models most likely have a very very very low R-Squared, that is why they never publish the R-Squared of the models. You can host a project to beat the IPCC Climate Model R-Squareds. All you would need to do is create a repository for valid climate data. Dr. Spencer and Christy could provide the Satellite Data, Dr. Willie Soon could provide the solar data, someone else could provide the data for El Ninos and Ninas, others could provide data for clouds, albido, etc etc. The CO2 data is readily available. Once all the data sets are collected, multivariable regressions could be run on the data to identify the most significant variables, as well as establishing the R-Squared for the Temp=f(CO2) model. Once that data is collected, and the models run, it would provide great evidence for a court case. The Climate Alarmists would have to defend why a bunch of bloggers were able to create a climate model with a much higher R-Squared than the IPCC was able to do after spending billion of dollars. The models are the key to debunking this nonsense, and your website as the ability to reach the people that are needed to pull this off.

    Here is a more detailed explanation of the project.
    Climate “Science” on Trial; The Criminal Case Against the Alarmists
    https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2017/02/21/climate-science-on-trial-the-criminal-case-against-the-alarmists/

  12. Pamela Gray says:

    I have enjoyed the deep snow here in my little remote corner of NE Oregon (the nearest Walmart is 80 miles away and Safeway is 56 miles away). There is still a 10 ft snow drift out my back door with an ice raft coming off the roof too thick to knock down. It is now my ice awning. The school district here took only one snow day off during the weeks of near continuous snow, the first one they have taken in years and years. We spent nearly all of January below 0 and more than a few days at minus 20. That said, pushing now into my 6th decade, tropical sounds quite good and it would certainly help my hands. But only for a few days or maybe a week. This rough and tumble pioneer town is quite the good life. So maybe when I retire I will take my loved ones to a tropical location for a few days. Until we miss the pioneer towns and high mountains we grew up in here in our frozen corner of NE Oregon.

  13. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Just something odd:

    Gif of noaa equatorial pacific subsurface shows a bit of
    warm blob: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

    But the Aussies show cold:

    If that link doesn’t work scroll down to “4-month sequence of pacific …”

    http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/oceantemp/sota.shtml

  14. Ben Palmer says:

    Bob, we are missing your posts. Never mind, wishing you a good time and a well deserved “blind spot” for climate related issues other than the sun that shines where ever you are.

  15. Pamela Gray says:

    So basically, your audience, including me, is stomping the floor and in unison, calling your name to get back on the stage!!!! At least for an encore!

  16. Mykidsbutler says:

    So global whining does exist!? Some of these comments prove it.

  17. Frederik Michiels says:

    missing your monthly updates and research a lot my friend but there is also a time where life quality is a necessity.

    so though i miss your fascinating work, if it was at the cost of your life’s quality then take this well earned undefined in length break. you deserved it. Enjoy it, do plenty of things that make you smile in life and have fun 🙂

    it’s just a pity that you are half a world away or i would have invited you at one of our campfires where we relax play music and have good laughs and a drink. cheers!

  18. Chad Jessup says:

    Hello Bob. Hope you are doing well, and I imagine that you are enjoying the warm clime. Hope you will still come back with more of your excellent posts.

  19. sarastro92 says:

    Bob… enough vacation… report for duty… at once!

  20. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Hi bob, hope all is well!
    Off topic… but interesting:

    Changes in North Atlantic Oscillation drove Population Migrations and the Collapse of the Western Roman Empire

    Shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from 1–2 to 0–1 in four episodes increased droughts on the Roman Empire’s periphery and created push factors for migrations. These climatic events are associated with the movements of the Cimbri and Teutones from 113–101 B.C., the Marcomanni and Quadi from 164 to 180 A.D., the Goths in 376 A.D., and the broad population movements of the Migration Period from 500 to 600 A.D. Weakening of the NAO in the instrumental record of the NAO have been associated with a shift to drought in the areas of origin for the Cimbri, Quadi, Visigoths, Ostrogoths, Huns, and Slavs. While other climate indices indicate deteriorating climate after 200 A.D. and cooler conditions after 500 A.D., the NAO may indicate a specific cause for the punctuated history of migrations in Late Antiquity. Periodic weakening of the NAO caused drought in the regions of origin for tribes in antiquity, and may have created a powerful push factor for human migration. While climate change is frequently considered as a threat to sustainability, its role as a conflict amplifier in history may be one of its largest impacts on populations.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-01289-z

  21. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Might stratospheric [Arctic ozone] variability lead to improved predictability of ENSO events?

    Traditionally, ENSO events are forecasted using coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models in which chemical processes in the stratosphere are not explicitly considered. A recent letter by Xie et al [6] suggests that this may lead to an underestimation of the predictability of ENSO events, as Arctic stratospheric ozone anomalies precede, and likely force, ENSO variability.

    The letter by Xie et al [6] first shows that over the historical record, there is a statistically significant correlation between Arctic stratospheric ozone and the Niño 3.4 index twenty months later: the correlation is −0.35 when all calendar months are considered, and rises to −0.57 when the seasons with maximum variability are considered (i.e. the correlation of spring ozone with winter ENSO variability 20 months later). Additional, causal, evidence is provided by model simulations with the Community Earth System Model: while the model has no skill at reproducing the historical timing of specific ENSO events (as expected due to misalignment in the stochastic forcing of ENSO), imposing observed Arctic stratospheric ozone in the model acts as a pacemaker for the ocean-atmosphere coupled system: several strong El Niño events are successfully simulated, and the correlation between the observed and the simulated Niño 3.4 index is statistically significant (correlation of 0.42)……

    http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/68511

  22. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    re: interdecadal pacific Oscillation

    Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
    Abstract

    Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic eruptions, temperature projections are centered on a breaching of the 1.5°C target, relative to 1850–1900, before 2029. The phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) will regulate the rate at which mean temperature approaches the 1.5°C level. A transition to the positive phase of the IPO would lead to a projected exceedance of the target centered around 2026. If the Pacific Ocean remains in its negative decadal phase, the target will be reached around 5 years later, in 2031. Given the temporary slowdown in global warming between 2000 and 2014, and recent initialized decadal predictions suggestive of a turnaround in the IPO, a sustained period of rapid temperature rise might be underway. In that case, the world will reach the 1.5°C level of warming several years sooner than if the negative IPO phase persists.
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL073480/full

  23. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Multidecadal variability and climate shift in the North Atlantic Ocean
    21 May 2017
    Abstract

    Decadal variability of ocean heat content (OHC) and temperature trends over ~60 years in the North Atlantic Ocean were analyzed using a new high-resolution ocean climatology based on quality-controlled historic in situ observations. Тwo ~30 year ocean climates of 1955–1984 and 1985–2012 were compared to evaluate the climate shift in this region. The spatial distribution of the OHC climate shift is highly inhomogeneous, with the climate shift being the strongest southeast of the Gulf Stream Extension. This may be caused by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown in conjunction with heaving of warm subtropical water. The 30 year climate shift shows higher OHC gain in the Gulf Stream region than reported in shorter timescale estimates. The OHC change is generally coherent with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index. This coherence suggests that quasi-cyclicity of the OHC may exist, with a period of 60 to 80 years, superimposed on the slow basin-wide warming trend.
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL073644/abstract

  24. frankclimate says:

    Bob, are you aware of this study? http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025827/abstract
    They prove the Iris from obs. and recalculate the ECS when one includes this effect of the WPWP. It gives about 2 . Lindzen in the ackn. ! It bolsters your guesses about a thermostat. I’m quire sure you’ll find a free copy 😉
    best Frank

  25. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability
    Authors
    Significance
    Arctic amplification is a robust feature of climate response to global warming, with large impacts on ecosystems and societies. A long-standing mystery is that a pronounced Arctic warming occurred during the early 20th century when the rate of interdecadal change in radiative forcing was much weaker than at present. Here, using observations and model experiments, we show that the combined effect of internally generated Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variabilities intensified the Arctic land warming in the early 20th century. The synchronized Pacific–Atlantic warming drastically alters planetary-scale atmospheric circulations over the Northern Hemisphere that transport warm air into the Arctic. Our results highlight the importance of regional sea surface temperature changes for Arctic climate and constrain model projections in this important region……
    http://m.pnas.org/content/114/24/6227.abstract

  26. eastvns says:

    So, models correlate the current Arctic ice variability and atmospheric warming variability, with the accepted evidence of prior correlation of Atlantic and Pacific ocean forcing factors present in the past century, with no similar correlation with atmospheric CO2 concentration.

    Bob, Ali and Dennis ask for a check in.

  27. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    The northern North Atlantic, 45N-65N, sure has dropped recently

  28. Bob Tisdale says:

    Alec, you must know by now that temperatures cooling regionally are a sign of global warming (sarc off).

    Cheers
    Bob

  29. Pamela Gray says:

    Glad to have you back!

  30. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Well since you’ve been peeking Bob:
    Delayed North Atlantic [SST Anomaly] Response to Solar Forcing of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex
    A delayed response of the winter North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) to the 11-year solar cycle has been observed and modeled in recent studies. However, the mechanisms creating this 2-4-year delay to the solar cycle have still not been well-understood. This study examines the effects of the 11-year solar cycle and the resulting modulation in the strength of the winter stratospheric polar vortex. A coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model is used to simulate these effects by introducing a mechanistic forcing in the stratosphere. The intensified stratospheric polar vortex is shown to induce positive and negative ocean temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean. The positive ocean temperature anomaly migrated northward and was amplified when it approached an oceanic frontal zone approximately 3 years after the forcing became maximum. This delayed ocean response is similar to that observed. The result of this study supports oa previous hypothesis that suggests that the 11-year solar cycle signals on the Earth’s surface are produced through a downward penetration of the changes in the stratospheric circulation. Furthermore, the spatial structure of the signal is modulated by its interaction with the ocean circulation.

    https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/13/0/13_2017-010/_article

    Full paper:
    https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/13/0/13_2017-010/_pdf

    Having any good graphs of the northern North Atlantic for the last few decades? ‘Enquiring’ minds want to know

  31. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Hot off the presses today:

    Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

    Received:
    12 January 2017
    Accepted:
    22 May 2017
    Published online:
    07 July 2017

    Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO–WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind–evaporation–SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST–sea level pressure–cloud–longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

    Sent from my iPhone

  32. Bob,
    You might be interested in a post at my site:

    Pro Tip: Tin-Foil Hat Alarmists Tilt Your Heads 21 Degrees to the Left!!
    http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2017/07/pro-tip-tin-foil-hat-alarmists-tilt.html

    I hope that you will forgive me for using one of the graphs that you posted at WUWT but I am trying to use it to bring attention to the excellent work that you have done on the ENSO over many years.

  33. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Sure would be nice to get an update on recent ocean heat content 😀

    Some of the wackier contrarians are try to make hay out of a plateau in sea level on this nasa graph:
    https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

    The big three components of sea level rise are: ground water extraction, thermal expansion and glacier melt. Unlikely a slow down in pumping ground water… hmm, that leaves ocean heat and/or glaciers

  34. Janice Moore says:

    Bob! WE MISS YOU!

    Sure hope you are okay.

    Please send us a line telling us how you are doing, okay?

    Your admiring student,

    Janice

  35. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Hiatus-like decades in the absence of equatorial Pacific cooling and accelerated global ocean heat uptake
    Published 5 August 2017
    Abstract

    A surface cooling pattern in the equatorial Pacific associated with a negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is the leading hypothesis to explain the smaller rate of global warming during 1998–2012, with these cooler than normal conditions thought to have accelerated the oceanic heat uptake. Here using a 30-member ensemble simulation of a global Earth system model, we show that in 10% of all simulated decades with a global cooling trend, the eastern equatorial Pacific actually warms. This implies that there is a 1 in 10 chance that decadal hiatus periods may occur without the equatorial Pacific being the dominant pacemaker. In addition, the global ocean heat uptake tends to slow down during hiatus decades implying a fundamentally different global climate feedback factor on decadal time scales than on centennial time scales and calling for caution inferring climate sensitivity from decadal-scale variability.
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL073578/full

  36. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    SST related….
    Just noticed that the SST for the Barents Sea and Kara sea are a bit cooler that the last 5 year (looking at the Navy site) especially compared to last year.

    way to early to think about arctic refreeze but cooler sst kinda jumped out at me… hope the link below works, aug 19, 2016 on the left and aug 19, 2017 on the right

    source https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html

  37. Bob. Everyone still misses your very insightful posts.

    In the past you wrote about the “Blob”

    Right now there is a cold “Blob” in the Bering Sea between Russia and Alaska.

    Any thoughts on this?

  38. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Hmm, the Barents and Kara image didn’t appear nor the link…
    Try one more time

  39. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Published TODAY:

    Is El Niño really changing?

    Abstract

    El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific climate variability, with global impacts. Understanding how the statistics of ENSO events may be changing in response to global warming is of great interest and importance for society. A clear detection of such signals in observations has, however, been obscured by large event-to-event differences and apparent “regime shifts” such as that of the late 1970s. In particular, despite extensive research, it is not clear to what extent the observed long-term changes are systemic or random. Here we show using a multicomponent linear inverse modeling technique that statistically significant systemic changes have indeed occurred in ENSO dynamics since the late 1970s and have affected the evolution of El Niño and La Niña events from their embryonic to fully mature stages.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074515/full

  40. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    To go “cooling” Barents SSTs I posted
    Above:

    Toward an ice-free Barents Sea
    Published August 25, 2017
    Abstract

    Arctic winter sea ice loss is most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Here we combine observations since 1850 with climate model simulations to examine the recent record low winter Barents Sea ice extent. We find that the present observed winter Barents Sea ice extent has been reduced to less than one third of the pre-satellite mean and is lower than the minimum sea ice extent in all multicentury climate model control simulations assessed here. The current observed sea ice loss is furthermore unprecedented in the observational record and appears as an uncommon trend in the long control simulations. In a warming climate, projections from the large ensemble simulation with the Community Earth System Model show a winter ice-free Barents Sea for the first time within the time period 2061–2088. The large spread in projections of ice-free conditions highlights the importance of internal variability in driving recent and future sea ice loss.
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074304/full

  41. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Looks like La Niña coming REALLY rapidly:

    August 7 equatorial cross section, the third image of the group being temp anomaly, hints of possible La Niña months if the future

    https://postimg.org/image/y3gkwh21b/

    Now September 4 and La Niña is banging on the door!


    https://postimg.org/image/xf7qdj3bj/

    [ I apologize in advance if the graphics don’t appear]

  42. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:
  43. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    PDO has inched a tiny bit negative :

    “- PDO index switched to negative phase in Aug 2017, with PDO index =-0.1 ”
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.ppt

  44. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    SOI crosses into La Niña Level… +9.76 for last 30 days and +7.34 for last 90 days
    https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s