Sorry About The Lack of New Posts

I’m on holiday. I’m having too much fun someplace where it’s warm and sunny…and my desktop and laptop with my standard spreadsheets are back home where it’s cold and snowy.   I’m not sure when I’ll be back there, if ever.



About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
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29 Responses to Sorry About The Lack of New Posts

  1. Robert MacLean says:

    Enjoy the warm weather! We all appreciate your efforts to educate us.

  2. stevekeohane says:

    Take a well-earned break. Thanks again for all you do.

  3. Janice Moore says:

    Glad, so very glad, Bob, to hear that you are taking a nice long (perhaps permanent!) vacation. We will miss your superbly erudite, well-written, thorough, world-class, data analysis, though, if you don’t file a report from “somewhere in the Pacific” ONCE in awhile… 😦

    Enjoy yourself, dear hardworking man who has done SO MUCH for the cause of freedom from the enviroprofiteers! 🙂

    Your admiring student,


  4. Peter Paulson says:


    You have to come back. We your readers are left out in the cold.


  5. eastvns says:

    Stop by on the way home. Discuss boundary layer psychometrics, corporations moving to Ireland, whisky, or fast cars.

  6. Mark Green says:

    Boohoo! !! We need your posts!!!

  7. nzrobin says:

    Wishing you a wonderful holiday. If it’s too hard to go back to the cold, maybe just get another computer and connect up where it’s warm. We won’t mind.

  8. Hi Bob, Can we at least get a ‘wish you were here’ pic?! Enjoy and Cheers, John
    Here’s a funny for you and all to enjoy..see what happens when Aussies get a few hot days out some blocking much for that typecast bloke from Downunder; a piece sarcastically entitled “What a relief that climate change doesn’t really exist”

  9. co2islife says:

    Bob, if you even need a break, please feel free to repost any of my articles over at CO2isLife. I just finished this one that links to your site.

    Climate “Science” on Trial; Cherry Picking Locations to Manufacture Warming

  10. co2islife says:

    Bob, I just finished this. You may find it interesting. It uses the models as evidence for a court case.
    Climate “Science” on Trial; The Criminal Case Against the Alarmists

  11. co2islife says:

    Bob, I just posted the following message over on WUWT. Do you have a link to any data that may apply?. I’d like to run a regression against Temperature. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

    Mr. Watts, I may have a great project for your Blog. The IPCC Models provide the evidence to shoot down the AGW Theory. The IPCC Models most likely have a very very very low R-Squared, that is why they never publish the R-Squared of the models. You can host a project to beat the IPCC Climate Model R-Squareds. All you would need to do is create a repository for valid climate data. Dr. Spencer and Christy could provide the Satellite Data, Dr. Willie Soon could provide the solar data, someone else could provide the data for El Ninos and Ninas, others could provide data for clouds, albido, etc etc. The CO2 data is readily available. Once all the data sets are collected, multivariable regressions could be run on the data to identify the most significant variables, as well as establishing the R-Squared for the Temp=f(CO2) model. Once that data is collected, and the models run, it would provide great evidence for a court case. The Climate Alarmists would have to defend why a bunch of bloggers were able to create a climate model with a much higher R-Squared than the IPCC was able to do after spending billion of dollars. The models are the key to debunking this nonsense, and your website as the ability to reach the people that are needed to pull this off.

    Here is a more detailed explanation of the project.
    Climate “Science” on Trial; The Criminal Case Against the Alarmists

  12. Pamela Gray says:

    I have enjoyed the deep snow here in my little remote corner of NE Oregon (the nearest Walmart is 80 miles away and Safeway is 56 miles away). There is still a 10 ft snow drift out my back door with an ice raft coming off the roof too thick to knock down. It is now my ice awning. The school district here took only one snow day off during the weeks of near continuous snow, the first one they have taken in years and years. We spent nearly all of January below 0 and more than a few days at minus 20. That said, pushing now into my 6th decade, tropical sounds quite good and it would certainly help my hands. But only for a few days or maybe a week. This rough and tumble pioneer town is quite the good life. So maybe when I retire I will take my loved ones to a tropical location for a few days. Until we miss the pioneer towns and high mountains we grew up in here in our frozen corner of NE Oregon.

  13. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Just something odd:

    Gif of noaa equatorial pacific subsurface shows a bit of
    warm blob:

    But the Aussies show cold:

    If that link doesn’t work scroll down to “4-month sequence of pacific …”

  14. Ben Palmer says:

    Bob, we are missing your posts. Never mind, wishing you a good time and a well deserved “blind spot” for climate related issues other than the sun that shines where ever you are.

  15. Pamela Gray says:

    So basically, your audience, including me, is stomping the floor and in unison, calling your name to get back on the stage!!!! At least for an encore!

  16. Mykidsbutler says:

    So global whining does exist!? Some of these comments prove it.

  17. Frederik Michiels says:

    missing your monthly updates and research a lot my friend but there is also a time where life quality is a necessity.

    so though i miss your fascinating work, if it was at the cost of your life’s quality then take this well earned undefined in length break. you deserved it. Enjoy it, do plenty of things that make you smile in life and have fun 🙂

    it’s just a pity that you are half a world away or i would have invited you at one of our campfires where we relax play music and have good laughs and a drink. cheers!

  18. Chad Jessup says:

    Hello Bob. Hope you are doing well, and I imagine that you are enjoying the warm clime. Hope you will still come back with more of your excellent posts.

  19. sarastro92 says:

    Bob… enough vacation… report for duty… at once!

  20. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Hi bob, hope all is well!
    Off topic… but interesting:

    Changes in North Atlantic Oscillation drove Population Migrations and the Collapse of the Western Roman Empire

    Shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from 1–2 to 0–1 in four episodes increased droughts on the Roman Empire’s periphery and created push factors for migrations. These climatic events are associated with the movements of the Cimbri and Teutones from 113–101 B.C., the Marcomanni and Quadi from 164 to 180 A.D., the Goths in 376 A.D., and the broad population movements of the Migration Period from 500 to 600 A.D. Weakening of the NAO in the instrumental record of the NAO have been associated with a shift to drought in the areas of origin for the Cimbri, Quadi, Visigoths, Ostrogoths, Huns, and Slavs. While other climate indices indicate deteriorating climate after 200 A.D. and cooler conditions after 500 A.D., the NAO may indicate a specific cause for the punctuated history of migrations in Late Antiquity. Periodic weakening of the NAO caused drought in the regions of origin for tribes in antiquity, and may have created a powerful push factor for human migration. While climate change is frequently considered as a threat to sustainability, its role as a conflict amplifier in history may be one of its largest impacts on populations.

  21. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Might stratospheric [Arctic ozone] variability lead to improved predictability of ENSO events?

    Traditionally, ENSO events are forecasted using coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models in which chemical processes in the stratosphere are not explicitly considered. A recent letter by Xie et al [6] suggests that this may lead to an underestimation of the predictability of ENSO events, as Arctic stratospheric ozone anomalies precede, and likely force, ENSO variability.

    The letter by Xie et al [6] first shows that over the historical record, there is a statistically significant correlation between Arctic stratospheric ozone and the Niño 3.4 index twenty months later: the correlation is −0.35 when all calendar months are considered, and rises to −0.57 when the seasons with maximum variability are considered (i.e. the correlation of spring ozone with winter ENSO variability 20 months later). Additional, causal, evidence is provided by model simulations with the Community Earth System Model: while the model has no skill at reproducing the historical timing of specific ENSO events (as expected due to misalignment in the stochastic forcing of ENSO), imposing observed Arctic stratospheric ozone in the model acts as a pacemaker for the ocean-atmosphere coupled system: several strong El Niño events are successfully simulated, and the correlation between the observed and the simulated Niño 3.4 index is statistically significant (correlation of 0.42)……

  22. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    re: interdecadal pacific Oscillation

    Trajectories toward the 1.5°C Paris target: Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

    Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic eruptions, temperature projections are centered on a breaching of the 1.5°C target, relative to 1850–1900, before 2029. The phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) will regulate the rate at which mean temperature approaches the 1.5°C level. A transition to the positive phase of the IPO would lead to a projected exceedance of the target centered around 2026. If the Pacific Ocean remains in its negative decadal phase, the target will be reached around 5 years later, in 2031. Given the temporary slowdown in global warming between 2000 and 2014, and recent initialized decadal predictions suggestive of a turnaround in the IPO, a sustained period of rapid temperature rise might be underway. In that case, the world will reach the 1.5°C level of warming several years sooner than if the negative IPO phase persists.

  23. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Multidecadal variability and climate shift in the North Atlantic Ocean
    21 May 2017

    Decadal variability of ocean heat content (OHC) and temperature trends over ~60 years in the North Atlantic Ocean were analyzed using a new high-resolution ocean climatology based on quality-controlled historic in situ observations. Тwo ~30 year ocean climates of 1955–1984 and 1985–2012 were compared to evaluate the climate shift in this region. The spatial distribution of the OHC climate shift is highly inhomogeneous, with the climate shift being the strongest southeast of the Gulf Stream Extension. This may be caused by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown in conjunction with heaving of warm subtropical water. The 30 year climate shift shows higher OHC gain in the Gulf Stream region than reported in shorter timescale estimates. The OHC change is generally coherent with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index. This coherence suggests that quasi-cyclicity of the OHC may exist, with a period of 60 to 80 years, superimposed on the slow basin-wide warming trend.

  24. frankclimate says:

    Bob, are you aware of this study?
    They prove the Iris from obs. and recalculate the ECS when one includes this effect of the WPWP. It gives about 2 . Lindzen in the ackn. ! It bolsters your guesses about a thermostat. I’m quire sure you’ll find a free copy 😉
    best Frank

  25. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability
    Arctic amplification is a robust feature of climate response to global warming, with large impacts on ecosystems and societies. A long-standing mystery is that a pronounced Arctic warming occurred during the early 20th century when the rate of interdecadal change in radiative forcing was much weaker than at present. Here, using observations and model experiments, we show that the combined effect of internally generated Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variabilities intensified the Arctic land warming in the early 20th century. The synchronized Pacific–Atlantic warming drastically alters planetary-scale atmospheric circulations over the Northern Hemisphere that transport warm air into the Arctic. Our results highlight the importance of regional sea surface temperature changes for Arctic climate and constrain model projections in this important region……

  26. eastvns says:

    So, models correlate the current Arctic ice variability and atmospheric warming variability, with the accepted evidence of prior correlation of Atlantic and Pacific ocean forcing factors present in the past century, with no similar correlation with atmospheric CO2 concentration.

    Bob, Ali and Dennis ask for a check in.

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