Category Archives: El Nino-La Nina Processes

How Strong Was That El Niño or La Niña? – No One Knows For Sure

We recently discussed and illustrated how the differences between sea surface temperature datasets prevented us from knowing which of the recent strong El Niño events (the 1982/83, 1997/98 or 2015/16 El Niños) was actually strongest.  See the post here. That … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 8 Comments

January 2016 ENSO Update – It Appears the El Niño Has Peaked

This post provides an update of many of the ENSO-related variables we presented as part of last year’s 2014-15 El Niño Series.  For the posts about the 2015/16 El Niño, we’ve used the evolution years of different El Niños as … Continue reading

Posted in 2015-16 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes | 7 Comments

December 2015 ENSO Update – Shouldn’t Be Long Now Until the El Niño Starts to Decay

This post provides an update of many of the ENSO-related variables we presented as part of last year’s 2014-15 El Niño Series.  For the posts this year, we’ve used the evolution years of different El Niños as references to the … Continue reading

Posted in 2015-16 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 19 Comments

ClimateProgress’s Joe Romm Is Promoting a Skeptical View of Global Warming: El Niño-Caused Steps

(And another proposal to Kevin Trenberth about us co-authoring a paper.) I wasn’t too surprised to find Joe Romm’s June 16, 2015 blog post 2015 May Bring Long-Awaited Step Jump in Global Temperatures at the climate alarmist website ClimateProgress. For … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes, Kevin Trenberth | 14 Comments

The Recent Westerly Wind Burst in the Western Equatorial Pacific Could Help to Strengthen the 2015/16 El Niño

The graphics at the NOAA GODAS website were running a few pentads (5-day periods) behind when I published the May 2015 ENSO Update.  They’re caught up now, and the Hovmoller diagram of the surface zonal wind stress along the equator, … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 13 Comments

Wow! ECMWF Long-Term Weather Model Is Predicting a Super El Niño and I Mean Super

I was notified today of the rather remarkable plume of ENSO forecasts for 2015 from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).  See their System 4 ENSO region sea surface temperature anomaly forecast webpage here.

Posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 21 Comments

Recent Paper Ends Abstract with “…Model Might Be Too Sensitive to the Prescribed Radiative Forcings”

The paper is Douville et al. (2015) The recent global warming hiatus: What is the role of Pacific variability? [paywalled].    The abstract reads (my boldface):

Posted in Climate Model Problems, El Nino-La Nina Processes | 10 Comments

New Paper Claims Extreme La Niñas to Become More Frequent under Global Warming

The new 2015 paper by Cai et al Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming has been getting a lot of alarmist attention recently. Examples: see the CBS News story Climate change expected to bring more La Niñas, … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, El Nino-La Nina Processes | 6 Comments

An Introduction to Oceanic Kelvin Waves at the NOAA ENSO Blog

We discussed downwelling and upwelling equatorial Kelvin waves in almost every post of 2014/15 El Niño Series.  NOAA recently published a post titled Oceanic Kelvin waves: The next polar vortex*.  The post was written by NOAA’s Michelle L’Heureux and reviewed … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes | 2 Comments

An Unexpected Admission from Dana Nuccitelli at SkepticalScience

In Dana Nuccitelli’s recent post at SkepticalScience Matt Ridley wants to gamble the Earth’s future because he won’t learn from the past, he has finally admitted something we’ve been discussing for more than 6 years. (His article was also cross … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Climate Model Failings, El Nino-La Nina Processes | 11 Comments