Category Archives: Model-Data LOST

EXAMPLES OF HOW AND WHY THE USE OF A “CLIMATE MODEL MEAN” AND THE USE OF ANOMALIES CAN BE MISLEADING

THE POST HAS BEEN UPDATED. SEE THE UPDATE AT THE END OF THE POST: Alternate Title: An Average of Climate Models, Which Individually Give Wrong Answers, Cannot, By Averaging Them, Give the Right Answer, So A Model Mean Can Be … Continue reading

Posted in Global Warming in Perspective, Model-Data LOST | 2 Comments

What Was Earth’s Preindustrial Global Mean Surface Temperature, In Absolute Terms Not Anomalies, Supposed to Be?

And What Have the Average Temperatures of Earth’s Surfaces Been Recently in Absolute Terms, Not Anomalies? The answers may surprise you. THIS POST HAS BEEN UPDATED. The update is near the end of the post.

Posted in Global Warming in Perspective, Model-Data LOST | 8 Comments

Quiz: Which 30-Year Warming Period Is Recent?

THREE MAPS ILLUSTRATING SIMILAR GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER DIFFERENT 30-YEAR PERIODS The GISS map-making webpage allows users to create global maps of surface temperature anomalies for specific time periods or to create maps of the change in surface temperatures … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Model Failings, GISS, Model-Data LOST | 4 Comments

The Illusions Provided by Time-Series Graphs of Climate Model Ensembles and Model Spreads

The post Controversy over comparing models with observations at Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. prompted this post.  Judith’s post includes a Twitter exchange and a couple of model-data comparison graphs furnished by Dr. Gavin Schmidt, the director of the Goddard Institute of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Model Failings, Model-Data LOST | 6 Comments

April 2015 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly & Model-Data Difference Update

This post provides an update of the data for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature data—GISS through April 2015 and HADCRUT4 and NCDC through March 2015—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature data (RSS … Continue reading

Posted in GISS, HADCRUT4, Model-Data LOST, TLT and LOST Updates, TLT Update | 10 Comments

Does the Uptick in Global Surface Temperatures in 2014 Help the Growing Difference between Climate Models and Reality?

This post includes calendar year 2014 global surface temperature data from GISS and NCDC. I thought it would be interesting to begin the introduction as if GISS and NCDC were announcing year-end business profits at their press conference today. [sarc … Continue reading

Posted in Global Temperature Update, Model-Data LOST | 73 Comments

A Few Quick Comments on the New Paper by Gavin Schmidt and Steven Sherwood

In his post Schmidt and Sherwood on climate models, Andrew Montford of BishopHill commented on the new paper by Schmidt and Sherwood A practical philosophy of complex climate modelling (preprint).  I haven’t yet studied the Schmidt and Sherwood paper in … Continue reading

Posted in Model-Data Comparison SST, Model-Data LOST | 8 Comments

Interesting Post at RealClimate about Modeled Absolute Global Surface Temperatures

We recently presented and discussed modeled and observed global surface temperatures in absolute terms. See the post On the Elusive Absolute Global Mean Surface Temperature – A Model-Data Comparison. The WattsUpWithThat cross post is here. Yesterday, Willis Eschenbach at WUWT furnished … Continue reading

Posted in Model-Data LOST | 16 Comments

October 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly & Model-Data Difference Update

I’ve added a graph of the difference between the observed global temperature anomalies (GISS LOTI) and the climate model simulations of that metric by the models stored in the CMIP5 archive (used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report).  … Continue reading

Posted in GISS, HADCRUT4, LOST Update, Lower Troposphere Temperature, Model-Data LOST, NCDC, TLT and LOST Updates, TLT Update | 10 Comments

On the Elusive Absolute Global Mean Surface Temperature – A Model-Data Comparison

With the publication of the IPCC 5th Synthesis Report, I thought there might be some interest in a presentation of how well (actually poorly) climate models simulate global mean surface temperatures in absolute terms.  That is, most climate model outputs … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Model Failings, Model-Data LOST | 71 Comments