Our Ignorance is Breathtaking – We Should be Humble

Donna Laframboise at nofrakkingconsensus.com has a great post with links to a TED Talk by Swedish global health professor, Hans Rosling. Please take the time to watch the video. Very entertaining and enlightening.

Cheers and Happy Holidays.

Big Picture News, Informed Analysis

We humans consistently miss the big picture. The world is improving dramatically, but our brains are addicted to worry and fear.

Last week’s edition of Nature includes a highly readable article about Swedish global health professor, Hans Rosling. He makes fantastic videos that help us see the world more clearly. (I’ve written about some of them here and here.)

Embedded in that Nature article is a remarkable TED talk, filmed in Berlin two years ago. The first 10 minutes are eye-popping.

Using multiple choice questions, Rosling demonstrates that most of us are wildly misinformed about big picture trends. Since each multiple choice question has three possible answers, a chimp choosing at random would get the correct answer 33% of the time. But humans routinely score worse than the chimp.

Rosling begins by talking about those who perish due to natural disasters. Over the past century, he asks, has the…

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The latest climate ‘conspiracy theory’

Thanks, Judith, I enjoyed this post. The concluding “JC message to the alarmed scientist/advocates” is well done.

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

Guess who the new climate ‘conspiracy theorists’ are?

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November 2016 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

This post provides updates of the values for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature reconstructions—GISS through November 2016 and HADCRUT4 and NOAA NCEI (formerly NOAA NCDC) through October 2016—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature composites (RSS and UAH) through November 2016. It also includes a few model-data comparisons. Continue reading

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November 2016 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

MONTHLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP

The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for November 2016. It was downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer. The contour range was set to -2.5 to +2.5 deg C and the anomalies are referenced to the WMO-preferred period of 1981-2010 for short-term data.

00-global-ssta-map

November 2016 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.27 deg C)

MONTHLY GLOBAL OVERVIEW

The global Sea Surface Temperature anomaly for November 2016 shows a noticeable decline since October. A sizeable downtick in the Northern Hemisphere (-0.10 deg C) was suppressed by a lesser downtick in the Southern Hemisphere (-0.03 deg C). The noticeable drop in the Northern Hemisphere was driven by the North Pacific, which showed a sizeable decline (-0.21 deg C)…a response to the large ribbon of below normal sea surface temperature anomalies stretching across the extratropical North Pacific. (See the post Something to Keep an Eye On – The Large Blue Ribbon of Below-Normal Sea Surface Temperatures in the North Pacific.) Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies for the NINO3.4 show weakening La Niña conditions. Continue reading

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Early December 2016 La Niña Update: Mixed Signals from NOAA and BOM

Note: See Update at the end of the post.

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Last month on November 10, NOAA issued a La Niña Advisory, indicating weak La Niña conditions existed and that those conditions were “slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17.” Let’s see how things are progressing. Continue reading

Posted in ENSO Update, Uncategorized | 8 Comments

The Politicization of Climate Science Is NOT a Recent Phenomenon

There’s lots of yacking around the blogosphere and mainstream media about President-elect Donald Trump politicizing climate science. But it’s nothing new. Climate science became a tool for pushing political agendas almost 3 decades ago.

In 1988, the United Nations, a political body, founded the global-warming-report-writing entity called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC was created to support political agendas. And in 1995, politics corrupted climate science, when politicians changed the language of the IPCC’s second assessment report, eliminating the scientists’ statements of uncertainties.  To this day, the climate science community still cannot truly differentiate between natural and anthropogenic global warming.  Why?  The climate models used in attribution studies still cannot simulate modes of natural variability that can cause global warming over multidecadal timeframes.  Continue reading

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October 2016 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

This post provides updates of the values for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature reconstructions—GISS through October 2016 and HADCRUT4 and NOAA NCEI (formerly NOAA NCDC) through September 2016—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature composites (RSS and UAH) through October 2016. It also includes a few model-data comparisons. Continue reading

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Something to Keep an Eye On – The Large Blue Ribbon of Below-Normal Sea Surface Temperatures in the North Pacific

The weather pattern that created Siberia’s well-below-normal land surface air temperatures in October 2016 …

oct-2016-ghcn-cams

October 2016 Land Surface Air Temperature Anomalies (GHCN-CAMS through KNMI Climate Explorer)

…has apparently extended eastward. Continue reading

Posted in SST Update | 18 Comments

October 2016 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

MONTHLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP

The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for October 2016.  It was downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer. The contour range was set to -2.5 to +2.5 deg C and the anomalies are referenced to the WMO-preferred period of 1981-2010.

00-ssta-map

October 2016 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.32 deg C)

MONTHLY GLOBAL OVERVIEW

The global Sea Surface Temperature anomaly for October 2016 shows basically no change since September. A downtick in the Northern Hemisphere (-0.05 deg C) was countered by an uptick in the Southern Hemisphere (+0.03 deg C). Last month, the North Pacific was the basin to show the most cooling (-0.07 deg C), while the South Pacific (+0.05 deg C) and the Southern Ocean (+0.06 deg C) showed the most warming.  Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies for the NINO3.4 continue to show weak La Niña conditions.     Continue reading

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Peer Review Is Bunk

Big Picture News, Informed Analysis

A report I wrote for the Global Warming Policy Foundation was released today. It explains that peer-reviewed research is as likely to be wrong as right. Basing public policy on findings that haven’t yet been reproduced is nuts.

Cartoons by Josha marvelous cartoon by Josh graces the cover of my report

It’s time to slam on the brakes, folks. In recent decades, governments have justified all manner of guidelines, taxes, laws, and public awareness campaigns by claiming that a certain course of action is indicated by ‘science.’ We’re repeatedly told that ‘peer-reviewed’ science has determined X, and that society should therefore do Y.

But here’s the dirty little secret: the peer review process tells us almost nothing. It’s merely a sniff test. A couple of people briefly examine a research paper. Using entirely subjective criteria they decide that it kind of makes sense, that it must be right because it confirms their…

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