The Illusions Provided by Time-Series Graphs of Climate Model Ensembles and Model Spreads

The post Controversy over comparing models with observations at Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. prompted this post.  Judith’s post includes a Twitter exchange and a couple of model-data comparison graphs furnished by Dr. Gavin Schmidt, the director of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies.  The one from Gavin for the global mid-troposphere temperature anomalies is included below as my Figure 1. The comparison includes of number datasets and the 95% model spread along with the model mean. Continue reading

Posted in Climate Model Failings, Model-Data LOST | 1 Comment

Quicky Early April 2016 ENSO Update: NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Still at the Threshold of a Strong El Niño

NOAA’s weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for the NINO regions (based on the original Reynolds OI.v2 data) are furnished on Mondays. Today’s update for the week centered on March 30, 2016 shows the sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N, 170W-1250W), which NOAA uses to define an El Niño and its strength, is at 1.5 deg C.   That’s the threshold of a strong El Niño.  Also keep in mind that the uncertainties of the data prevent us from knowing which of the El Niño events (1997/98 or 2015/16) was actually strongest.   We illustrated and discussed this in the post The Differences between Sea Surface Temperature Datasets Prevent Us from Knowing Which El Niño Was Strongest According NINO3.4 Region Temperature Data. Continue reading

Posted in 2015-16 El Nino Series, ENSO Update, Uncategorized | 2 Comments

February 1998 Global Temperatures Reach Unprecedented Levels

Guest Post

The satellite-measured temperature of the lower troposphere—the layer of Earth’s atmosphere that’s closest to the surface—has risen about 0.75 deg C (more than 1.3 deg F) in less than a year in 1997 and 1998, astounding climate scientists from around the world and confirming that man-made greenhouse gases are causing catastrophic global warming.

Figure 1 - Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomalies

Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Fun | 4 Comments

February 2016 Global Surface Temperature Anomalies May or May Not Have Been Highest on Record, According to the UKMO

UPDATE:  I used the phrase “may or may not” with respect to February 2016 being the warmest on record in the title and text of this post.  Nick Stokes on the thread of the cross post at WUWT advises that based on his analysis “98.7% of the time, Feb 2016 is higher” than January 2007.  Or to put that in the terms NOAA uses for their SOTC, it is “very likely” February 2016 is warmest.

Once again, when presented with evidence that I’ve presented something incorrectly in a post, I am more than happy to acknowledge and correct it.  Unfortunately, that cannot be said for many alarmists.

Additionally, that does not change the remainder of the post which notes that the uptick in global surface temperatures in response to the 2015/16 El Niño is comparable to that of the 1997/98 El Niño.  That has been evident in all of the surface temperature datasets examined so far.

[End update.]

With the publications of the NASA/GISS and NOAA/NCEI global surface temperature anomaly data over the past few weeks, alarmists have been touting “record high” February 2016 global surface temperature anomalies.  See the posts Alarmism Cranked Up to Absurd Level and More Alarmist Nonsense with the Release of the Redundant* NOAA Global Temperature Data for February 2016.

Yesterday, the UK Met Office published their global data for last month and so far the alarmists have been quiet.

Why? Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Global Temperature Update, HADCRUT4 | 4 Comments

Why are U.S. Taxpayers Supporting Numerous Duplications of Effort in the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)?

There are numerous duplications of effort in the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP): from multiple U.S.-funded climate-modeling groups, to multiple producers of the same climate-related data. Why are taxpayers supporting all of those duplications of effort? Continue reading

Posted in Politics | Leave a comment

An Open Letter to U.S. Presidential Candidates

Date:  March 27, 2016

Subject:  Extreme Weather and Rising Sea Levels

From:  Bob Tisdale – Independent Researcher/Climate Change

To: United States Presidential Candidates

Dear Presidential Candidates:

While reading this letter, please put aside your beliefs about human-induced global warming and climate change. Continue reading

Posted in Politics | 15 Comments

Series: Climate Models are NOT Simulating Earth’s Climate

This is a reference post about a recent series of blog posts that illustrated how poorly climate models simulate Earth’s climate.  I’ve also added a few other examples in this post.

Those posts include: Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments

More Alarmist Nonsense with the Release of the Redundant* NOAA Global Temperature Data for February 2016

*Or Maybe the GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index is Redundant.

In the post Alarmism Cranked Up to Absurd Level, we discussed the misleading media reports about the temporary February 2016 El Niño-related uptick in monthly global surface temperature data from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies. There have been numerous new same-topic news articles since NOAA released its February 2016 global temperature data a few days ago.  The NOAA/NCEI data show an uptick similar to the one we recently saw with the GISS data. See Figure 1. (A similar graph of the GISS data is here.)

Figure 1

Figure 1

(Data can be found here.)

Let’s focus on the AP story Beyond record hot, February was ‘astronomical’ and ‘strange’ by Seth Borenstein. It begins: Continue reading

Posted in 2015-16 El Nino Series, Alarmism, Global Temperature Update, Global Warming Goofiness | 14 Comments

Alarmism Cranked Up to Absurd Level

Featured Image

With the El Niño-related uptick in the February 2016 GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index, Figure 1, alarmism has reached beyond the Spinal Tap 11 volume setting, up to 20. (For those in need of a chuckle, the YouTube video of related portion of This is Spinal Tap is here.  Thanks to Rob Reiner and Christopher Guest for that very funny scene.)

Figure 1 GISS LOTI 1880-Feb 2016

Figure 1 Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, GISS, Global Warming Goofiness | 12 Comments

Global Sea Surface Temperature Responses to the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño Events

Alternate Title:  Just in Case You Thought Sea Surface Temperatures around the Globe Responded Similarly to Strong El Niños

This post will illustrate quite clearly that the responses of ocean surface temperatures differ noticeably with El Niño events of similar strength—those in 1997/98 and 2015/16. Continue reading

Posted in 2015-16 El Nino Series, SST Update | 13 Comments