April 2016 ENSO Update – La Niña Alerts Issued for Later This Year and NINO1+2 SSTa Are Near Zero Deg C

This post provides an update of many of the ENSO-related variables we presented as part of the 2014-15 El Niño Series.  For the posts about the 2015/16 El Niño, we’ve used the evolution years of different El Niños as references to the goings-on in 2015 and 2016.  This month we’re including the 1997/98 El Niño because it was the strongest El Niño in our short instrument temperature record.  For the other reference, we’re using 1982/83, which was the second strongest El Niño.

INTRODUCTION

The sea surface temperature anomalies for the easternmost NINO1+2 region have dropped to near zero.  The NINO3 and NINO3.4 regions should follow soon.

Both Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and the U.S.’s NOAA have issued La Niña alerts for the ENSO season of 2016/17. (BOM notice is here, and NOAA advisory is here.) Keep in mind that moderately strong El Niño conditions still exist, though, and that the alert is for possible future conditions. Continue reading

Posted in 2015-16 El Nino Series, ENSO Update | 9 Comments

Do the Adjustments to Land Surface Air Temperature Data Increase the Global Warming Rate?

Quick Answer:  Over the long term, the answer is yes, and the differences between datasets are striking. Over shorter terms, the answer depends on the data supplier.

INTRODUCTION

This is the second in a 2-part series of blog posts.  We examined the impacts of the adjustments to global sea surface temperature data in the post here.  Where the adjustments to sea surface temperature data decreased the long-term warming rate, the adjustments to the land surface temperature data increase the long-term trend.

But, as you’ll see, the adjustments to land surface temperatures have different impacts over shorter time periods. Continue reading

Posted in LSAT | 3 Comments

March 2016 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

This post provides an update of the values for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature reconstructions—GISS through March 2016 and HADCRUT4 and NCEI (formerly NCDC) through February 2016—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature composites (RSS and UAH) through March 2016.  It also includes a model-data comparison. Continue reading

Posted in Global Temperature Update, LOST Update, Lower Troposphere Temperature | 4 Comments

Are You New To the Global Warming Debate? James Hansen Admits a Couple of Things about Global Temperatures and Sea Levels You Should Know

Yale University’s Katherine Bagley interviewed James Hansen, former director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, in the post For James Hansen, the Science Demands Activism on Climate at YaleEnvironment360.  That interview was replayed in the article Climate scientist James Hansen ‘I don’t think I’m an alarmist’ at The Guardian.

In that interview, Hansen admitted a couple of basic things that many people do not realize.  So if you’re new to discussions of global warming and rising sea levels read on. Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism | 7 Comments

March 2016 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

INITIAL NOTE

I’m thinking of changing the format of the graphs.  Instead of presenting the centered 13-month running mean along with the monthly data, I’m thinking of replacing the smoothed curve with a horizontal line that represents the Current Value. See the sample below using the North Atlantic data. 

Sample New Format

Sample New Graph Format

Or should I simply remove the smoothed curve?  Please let me know what you think.

Back to your regularly scheduled update…   Continue reading

Posted in SST Update | 9 Comments

Headlines: What Climate Alarmists Write Versus What the Rest of Us See

I always enjoy the headlines of climate alarmist news stories.

This one caught my eye this week.  Of course the headline included the infamous weasel words:  COULD BE.

At BusinessInsider.com:  4.2 million Americans could be displaced by rising sea levels this century — see if your county is at risk. The linked webpage includes a fancy-schmancy video to show in which counties those displacements might take place, with a bar graph to show which oceanfront states might be impacted most or least.

What did I see? Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism | 1 Comment

Do the Adjustments to Sea Surface Temperature Data Lower the Global Warming Rate?

Quick answer:  Over the long term, the answer is yes, but for shorter terms it depends on the sea surface temperature dataset and time period.  And in recent years, as most people understand, the adjustments increase global warming trends. Continue reading

Posted in SST Dataset Info | 15 Comments

I Don’t Believe This Blogger is Pleased with Me or Climate Skeptics in General

I found the following comment this morning awaiting moderation. It was left today for a year-old post Richard Tol’s Excellent Summary of the Flaws in Cook et al. (2013) – The Infamous 97% Consensus Paper.  I approved it and its duplicate.  It’s very rare that I promote a comment to a blog post, but I felt it necessary in this case.

CAUTION – If profanity upsets you, read no further.

A REQUEST – If you chose to reply, please do not stoop to his level with profanity.  I’ll snip you.

Blogger Davy Slenderass writes here: Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 21 Comments

The Illusions Provided by Time-Series Graphs of Climate Model Ensembles and Model Spreads

The post Controversy over comparing models with observations at Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. prompted this post.  Judith’s post includes a Twitter exchange and a couple of model-data comparison graphs furnished by Dr. Gavin Schmidt, the director of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies.  The one from Gavin for the global mid-troposphere temperature anomalies is included below as my Figure 1. The comparison includes of number datasets and the 95% model spread along with the model mean. Continue reading

Posted in Climate Model Failings, Model-Data LOST | 1 Comment

Quicky Early April 2016 ENSO Update: NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Still at the Threshold of a Strong El Niño

NOAA’s weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for the NINO regions (based on the original Reynolds OI.v2 data) are furnished on Mondays. Today’s update for the week centered on March 30, 2016 shows the sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N, 170W-1250W), which NOAA uses to define an El Niño and its strength, is at 1.5 deg C.   That’s the threshold of a strong El Niño.  Also keep in mind that the uncertainties of the data prevent us from knowing which of the El Niño events (1997/98 or 2015/16) was actually strongest.   We illustrated and discussed this in the post The Differences between Sea Surface Temperature Datasets Prevent Us from Knowing Which El Niño Was Strongest According NINO3.4 Region Temperature Data. Continue reading

Posted in 2015-16 El Nino Series, ENSO Update, Uncategorized | 2 Comments