As of today’s 5am eastern NOAA forecast, Hurricane Joaquin may impact the east coast of the United States from North Carolina to New England, with it downgrading to a tropical storm by the time it nears New Jersey. See the cone in Figure 1 from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. If history repeats itself, and it’s very likely to do so, alarmists will be claiming that Hurricane Joaquin is being made worse by oceans warmed by manmade greenhouse gases.
We ran into those nonsensical claims when Sandy wreaked havoc three years ago, and we countered them with presentations of data from NOAA: Continue reading
Last year, we discussed in a number of posts how the claims of record high global surface temperatures were due primarily to the unusual, naturally occurring warming event in the eastern extratropical North Pacific…known as “The Blob”. See the list of posts about The Blob and its impacts at the end of this post.
This year, in addition to The Blob (which still exists), there is an El Niño developing in the eastern tropical Pacific. This has driven global surface temperatures even higher…once again naturally. As a result, it seems that NOAA has proclaimed “theee warmest ever [insert month name here]” each time they update their monthly State of the Climate Report.
Next year, can we expect a repeat of the monthly “warmest ever” claims? Continue reading
This post provides an update of many of the ENSO-related variables we presented as part of last year’s 2014-15 El Niño Series. The reference years for comparison graphs in this post are 1997 and 2014, which are the development years of the strongest recent El Niño and the last El Niño. I have not included animations in this post. In their place, I’ve compared present-day maps from the NOAA GODAS website to the same time in 2014. Note that I’ve also added an 2015-16 El Niño Series category at my blog for those who want to refer to the earlier ENSO updates from this year.
This is the last post in which we’ll use 2014 as a reference year. Next month I’m switching to 1982 along with 1997, to capture the evolutions of the two strongest El Niño events in recent history for comparison to this year.
This post provides an update of the values for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature reconstructions—GISS through August 2015 and HADCRUT4 and NCEI (formerly NCDC) through July 2015—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature composites (RSS and UAH) through August 2015. It also includes a model-data comparison. Continue reading
MONTHLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP
The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for August 2015. It was downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer. The contour range was set to -2.5 to +2.5 deg C.
August 2015 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map
(Global SST Anomaly = +0.365 deg C)
Note how The Blob has changed shape. The other hotspot west of the Baja Peninsula (Blob Jr., Son of Blob, whatever) has intensified. Continue reading
I recently presented the modeled energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) in the post No Consensus: Earth’s Top of Atmosphere Energy Imbalance in CMIP5-Archived (IPCC AR5) Climate Models. As you’ll recall, there was a very wide spread in the individual model simulations of the TOA energy imbalance. (See Figure 13 from that post.) I’ve shortened the timeframe to 1955-2014 in Figure 1, which is the period for which ocean heat content data are available from the NODC.
Ponder that graph for a moment. The average TOA energy imbalance (red curve) in recent years is in the expected range…the range we’ve been told by the climate science community. Example: According to Trenberth et al. (2014) Earth’s Energy Imbalance:
All estimates (OHC and TOA) show that over the past decade the energy imbalance ranges between about 0.5 and 1 Wm-2.
Trenberth et al. (2014) must not have been referring to the individual climate models, because they show a much larger range. In fact, some of the models show relatively high positive TOA energy imbalances, in the neighborhood of +2 to +3 watts/m^2, while others show negative energy imbalances, roughly -3 to -2 watts/m^2.
The simulated oceans in the models with the high positive TOA energy imbalances have to be accumulating heat at relatively fast rates. On the other hand, the simulated oceans in the models with the negative TOA energy imbalances have to be losing heat very quickly. Yes, losing heat.
In this first look, we’re going to calculate and illustrate the ocean heat accumulation from 1955 to 2014 based on the climate-model-simulated TOA energy imbalances for all of the models included in the earlier energy imbalance post. We’ll start with the full oceans compared to data for the top 2000 meters, and we’ll then compare models and data for the top 700 meters. Continue reading
This post provides an update of the values for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature reconstructions—GISS through July 2015 and HADCRUT4 and NCEI (formerly NCDC) through June 2015—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature composites (RSS and UAH) through July 2015. It also includes a model-data comparison. Continue reading
Apparently, based initially on a 1975 “first intuition” by an economist (not a climate scientist), politicians have sought to limit global surface warming to 2 deg C above pre-industrial levels by restricting greenhouse gas emissions. To that end, those politicians created the political entity called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose sole purpose is to prepare reports to support the politicians’ agendas.
Politicians from around the globe are once again gathering this year to futilely try to reach agreement on how to achieve that goal of limiting global warming to the economist-suggested limit. So, in order to increase public awareness, we’re being bombarded weekly with speculations of pending global-warming gloom and doom. One was a recent article Earth now halfway to UN global warming limit at NewScientist. It included a graph titled “Halfway to hell”, my Figure 1, prepared by chemist Kevin Cowtan. The graph showed that the values of most surface temperature reconstructions would likely rise above a 1.0 deg C anomaly in 2015.
Figure 1 Continue reading
This post provides background information and a quick update on the naturally occurring warming event in the eastern North Pacific known as The Blob. Not just any blob, The Blob.
Figure 1 Continue reading
MONTHLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP
The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for July 2015. It was downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer. The contour range was set to -2.5 to +2.5 deg C.
July 2015 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map
(Global SST Anomaly = +0.323 deg C)
MONTHLY GLOBAL OVERVIEW
Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies showed an uptick, an increase of about +0.031 deg C, from June to July. Both Hemispheres showed warming. The only basin with a sizable decrease was the South Atlantic. And there was basically no change in the North Pacific and Indian basins. As the El Niño continues to develop, we should expect increases around the globe. The monthly Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are presently at +0.323 deg C, referenced to the WMO-preferred base years of 1981 to 2010. Continue reading