Open Letter to Tom Karl of NOAA/NCEI Regarding “Hiatus Busting” Paper

UPDATE: See the note at the end of the post.

Date: June 10, 2015

Subject: Karl et al. (2015) Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus and the Sea Surface Data that Support It

From: Bob Tisdale – Independent Researcher

To: Tom Karl – Director NOAA/NCEI

Dear Tom: I’m writing to you with respect to the recent paper, of which you were lead author. The paper is, of course, Karl et al. (2015) Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus (paywalled.) It presented the impacts on the recent slowdown in surface temperature warming of the not-yet-implemented changes to the NOAA/NCEI global land+ocean surface temperature dataset. The changes to the ocean surface portion (the NOAA ERSST.v4 sea surface temperature reconstruction), not the land surface portion, played the larger role in your findings. The changes to that sea surface temperature data are supported by the papers:

The intent of this letter to present when and how the new NOAA sea surface temperature data differ during the hiatus from the night marine air temperature data, upon which it is based, which are used for bias adjustments over the term of the data. Continue reading

Posted in Hiatus, SST Dataset Info, The Pause | 12 Comments

More Curiosities about NOAA’s New “Pause Busting” Sea Surface Temperature Dataset

UPDATE 2: KNMI added the HadNMAT2 data to their Climate Explorer, so we no longer have to rely on my replication of data from a graph. See the update before the closing.
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UPDATE: I was just informed by the UKMO via email and by blogger Andrew on this thread that the UKMO has provided links to the HadNMAT2 data on their webpage here. For those of you with programming skills, have at it. Thank you, Met Office.

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The Night Marine Air Temperature dataset HadNMAT2 from the UKMO is used for bias adjustments of the new NOAA ERSST.v4 “pause-buster” sea surface temperature data over nearly its full term, from 1875 to 2010. But the UKMO HadNMAT2 data are not available online so that the public can easily verify the NOAA ERSST.v4 results. That’s small fish compared to an even bigger problem for NOAA. A preliminary investigation of the UKMO dataset suggests that the HadNMAT2 data do not support NOAA’s claims of no slowdown in global surface warming. In other words, the HadNMAT2 data have a much lower warming rate than the new NOAA “pause buster” ERSST.v4 data since 1998. Continue reading

Posted in CAGW Proponent Arguments, SST Dataset Info, The Pause | 25 Comments

NOAA/NCDC’s new ‘pause-buster’ paper: a laughable attempt to create warming by adjusting past data

This is a cross post from WattsUpWithThat.

Did SNL’s Tommy Flanagan Oversee the New Surface Temperature Data?

By Bob Tisdale and Anthony Watts, commentary from Dr. Judith Curry follows

There is a new paper published the journal Science about the recent slowdown in global surface warming (released from embargo today at 2PM eastern). It is from Tom Karl and others at NOAA’s newly formed NCEI, National Centers for Environmental Information (a merger of three NOAA data centers: NCDC, NODC and NGDC) and from the government-consulting firm LMI. The lead author is Tom Karl, Director of NCEI and Chair of the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (SGCR) of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The paper is Karl et al (2015) Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus. “Possible” is obviously the key word in the title. Continue reading

Posted in CAGW Proponent Arguments, Hiatus, NCDC | 11 Comments

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center is ‘sharpening their knives’ to cut ‘the pause’ from the global temperature record

Bob Tisdale:

I believe you will thoroughly enjoy the post Anthony is discussing here. I will cross post it at ClimateObservations at 2PM eastern tomorrow.


Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

People send me stuff. What I received reminded me of this famous quote from NCDC’s Dr. Tom Peterson back in 2011

In this case multiple sources have sent me a press release and advance copies of a paper that would easily qualify Dr. Peterson’s remark.

Tomorrow at 2PM EDT, there will be a press release from the American Association for the advancement of Science (AAAS) about a paper from NCDC published in the journal Science. Since there is an embargo in place, and while I got the information second hand and am not bound by the terms of its advance release to journalists, I’m still going to honor that embargo. So, I can’t give the title or anything else about it, but I wanted to give everyone a heads up.

Why? Well despite the embargo, the paper and the press release that goes with it is quietly being circulated among…

View original 141 more words

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments

New Paper Confirms the Drivers of and Processes behind the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

The new paper by McCarthy et al. (2015) Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations has gained some attention around the blogosphere.    McCarthy et al. (2015) was discussed by Jo Nova here, at ReportingClimateScience here and LiveScience here.  Also see the University of Southampton press release Global climate on verge of multi-decadal change. Continue reading

Posted in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation | 7 Comments

New Paper Tries to Explain Disparities in Deep Ocean Warming Between Two Basins


See the end of the post for a copy of it in pdf format.


I comment frankly about the NODC ocean heat content data a number of times in this post.  Please do not take those remarks as criticisms about the efforts of the NODC to assemble that data. The following quote includes links to maps of the locations of subsurface ocean temperature measurements at three depths. As you’ll note, the NODC had little source data to work with prior to the introduction of the ARGO floats. Continue reading

Posted in Ocean Heat Content Problems | 11 Comments

The Recent Westerly Wind Burst in the Western Equatorial Pacific Could Help to Strengthen the 2015/16 El Niño

The graphics at the NOAA GODAS website were running a few pentads (5-day periods) behind when I published the May 2015 ENSO Update.  They’re caught up now, and the Hovmoller diagram of the surface zonal wind stress along the equator, Figure 1, is showing another westerly wind burst during early May 2015 in the western equatorial Pacific. Continue reading

Posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 11 Comments

2 Deg C Global-Warming Limit in the News – Recent Comments by James Hansen, Godfather of Climate Alarmism

The 2 deg C global warming limit, above pre-industrial temperatures, is back in the news.  That limit was first proposed in the 1970s by an economist, not a climate scientist, according to the article Two degrees: The history of climate change’s ‘speed limit’ at TheCarbonBrief.  Authors Mat Hope & Rosamund Pearce note: Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism | 4 Comments

Wow! ECMWF Long-Term Weather Model Is Predicting a Super El Niño and I Mean Super

I was notified today of the rather remarkable plume of ENSO forecasts for 2015 from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).  See their System 4 ENSO region sea surface temperature anomaly forecast webpage here. Continue reading

Posted in El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 21 Comments

April 2015 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly & Model-Data Difference Update

This post provides an update of the data for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature data—GISS through April 2015 and HADCRUT4 and NCDC through March 2015—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature data (RSS and UAH) through April 2015. Continue reading

Posted in GISS, HADCRUT4, Model-Data LOST, TLT and LOST Updates, TLT Update | 10 Comments