Annual Global Lower Troposphere Temperature (TLT) Anomaly Update – Distant Third Warmest for 2015

As expected, annual global lower troposphere temperature (TLT) anomalies in 2015 for both the RSS and UAH datasets ranked a remote third warmest.  Continue reading

Posted in TLT Update | 10 Comments

Evolutions of Global Surface and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomalies in Responses to the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niños

This post compares the responses of global surface temperature anomalies and lower troposphere temperature anomalies for the 2015/16 El Niño and the comparatively strong 1997/98 El Niño. Datasets included are lower troposphere temperature data from RSS and UAH and land-ocean surface temperature products from NASA GISS, NOAA NCEI and UK Met Office.  Continue reading

Posted in 2015-16 El Nino Series | 21 Comments

A Foolish Bet about 2016 Global Surface Temperatures – It’s Nothing More than a Silly Publicity Stunt

SEE UPDATE 2 – Dr. Boslough’s wager is truly a sucker bet.

TheHuffingtonPost published a laughable post on December 31st by Sandia Labs’ Mark Boslough titled Are Climate Bullies Afraid to Bet Me?  It begins (You’re going to enjoy this): Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Climate Model Failings | 1 Comment

The Silliest Post-COP21 Headline Ever?

It’s been a few weeks since the U.N.’s Paris Climate Conference (COP21) ended. Mainstream media from around the globe praised the impotent agreement, as though anyone expects political promises to be kept.  The COP21 agreement reminded me of the proverb A promise is a comfort for a fool.

Fantasy headlines read: Continue reading

Posted in Politics, Satire/Humor | 12 Comments

NOAA’s New “Pauses-Buster” Sea Surface Temperature Data – The Curiosities Extend into the 1st Half of the 20th Century…


We’ve discussed NOAA’s new ERSST.v4 “pauses-buster” sea surface temperature reconstruction in a number of posts this year.  They are linked at the end of this post.  We can add yet another curiosity to the list…this time relating to the global ERSST.v4 data during the first half of the 20th Century.  Additionally, there is an error in a new paper about the NOAA ERSST.v4 that I want to discuss as well. Continue reading

Posted in NOAA ERSST.v4 | 8 Comments

Busting (or not) the mid-20th century global-warming hiatus

This article is also cross posted at Judith Curry’s ClimateEtc.
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In previous posts at WattsUpWithThat and at my blog ClimateObservations, I’ve discussed the new NOAA “pause-buster” sea surface temperature dataset (ERSST.v4) a number of times since the publication of Karl et al. (2015)—latest to earliest:

But those posts related primarily to the last few decades.

In this post, we’re going to briefly examine the long-term data and then focus on the post-World-War 2 period—a period when there are major differences between the two sea surface temperature datasets that are used in the combined land+ocean surface temperature products from GISS and NOAA (both of which use NOAA’s ERSST.v4) and UKMO (which uses HADSST3). Continue reading

Posted in NOAA ERSST.v4 | 12 Comments

November 2015 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly & Model-Data Difference Update.

As you’ll recall from last month’s update, the GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index jumped upwards more than 0.2 deg C from September to October 2014, assumedly a response to the El Niño.  The NOAA/NCEI and UKMO HADCRUT4 data lag by one month in these updates, and their September to October changes shown below are far from that 0.2 deg C spike.  Maybe we’ll see their upsurges in their November data.

We’re still waiting for the El Niño-related upsurges in the global lower troposphere temperature data.  They should be coming soon.

I’ll provide updates of the annual meteorological (December to November) mean data in an upcoming post, when the NCEI and HadCRUT4 November data are available.

And for those new to these discussions who are wondering why global surface temperature data are showing record-high values in 2015 and in 2014, see General Discussions 2 and 3 of my recent free ebook On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control (25MB). Continue reading

Posted in Global Temperature Update, LOST Update, Lower Troposphere Temperature | 5 Comments

December 2015 ENSO Update – Shouldn’t Be Long Now Until the El Niño Starts to Decay

This post provides an update of many of the ENSO-related variables we presented as part of last year’s 2014-15 El Niño Series.  For the posts this year, we’ve used the evolution years of different El Niños as references to the goings-on in 2015.  This month we’re including the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño because they were the strongest El Niños in our short instrument temperature record, comparable to the one this year.   Continue reading

Posted in 2015-16 El Nino Series, El Nino-La Nina Processes, ENSO Update | 19 Comments

November 2015 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update


The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for November 2015.  It was downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer. The contour range was set to -2.5 to +2.5 deg C and the anomalies are referenced to the WMO-preferred period of 1981-2010.

00 Map

November 2015 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.431 deg C)


Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies were basically unchanged, a decrease of about -0.007 deg C, from October to November. Surface temperature anomalies rose slightly in the Southern Hemisphere, but were countered by a slightly greater decline in the Northern Hemisphere. Last month, the South Pacific and, as a result, the Pacific Ocean as a whole had very noticeable increases, but they were countered by sizeable decreases in the Arctic, North Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The El Niño continues to develop and is close to peaking, but we should expect increases around the globe in delayed responses.  The monthly Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are presently at +0.431 deg C, referenced to the WMO-preferred base years of 1981 to 2010. Continue reading

Posted in SST Update | 9 Comments

Pause Buster SST Data: Has NOAA Adjusted Away a Relationship between NMAT and SST that the Consensus of CMIP5 Climate Models Indicate Should Exist?

In this post, we’re going to discuss one of the three adjustments with the greatest impacts on the new NOAA “pause buster” sea surface temperature dataset.   That is, I’m going to discuss and illustrate that NOAA based one of their recent adjustments (the adjustment with the greatest impact during the slowdown in global warming) on the outputs of one climate model…clarification: one obsolete earlier-generation climate model…and that if we examine the consensus of the latest generation of climate models, we see that NOAA may have adjusted away a relationship that the consensus of newer models indicates should exist…assuming that yet another of NOAA’s assumptions is correct. Continue reading

Posted in Marine Air Temperature, NOAA ERSST.v4, SST Dataset Info, The Pause | 15 Comments