Global Surface Temperature Anomalies Should Be Higher In 2016 Than 2015

This post confirms what most of us suspect based on the history of global surface temperature data responses to strong El Niño events. That is, if global surface temperatures respond similarly to past strong El Niños, the 2016 values should be higher than 2015. Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Comments

Close But No Cigar – NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Are a Tick (0.1 deg C) above La Niña Threshold

This is a quick ENSO update.

NOAA’s weekly sea surface temperature anomaly data for the NINO regions (based on the original Reynolds OI.v2 data) are furnished on Mondays. Today’s update for the week centered on June 22, 2016 shows the sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N, 170W-120W), which NOAA uses to define El Niño and La Niña events and their strengths, are at -0.4 deg C…a tick above the -0.5 deg C threshold of La Niña conditions.  Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Comments

Hurricane Main Development Region of North Atlantic – Climate Model-Simulated Sea Surface Temperatures Are Too Cool

And Those Too-Cool Surface Temperatures Create Obvious Problems for Researchers

UPDATE:  The closing has been revised.

The sea surface temperatures of the tropical North Atlantic are one of many factors that contribute to the development and maintenance of hurricanes. In fact, 26 deg C (about 79 deg F) is the sea surface temperature that’s typically quoted as the threshold for hurricanes.

This post provides model-data comparisons of the sea surface temperatures for the portion of the North Atlantic where hurricanes tend to breed, also known as the Main Development Region.  I’ve used the coordinates of 10N-20N, 80W-20W for the Main Development Region.  Continue reading

Posted in Hurricanes, Model-Data Comparison SST | 7 Comments

Global Sea Surface Temperature Responses to the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño Events – Update 1

Alternate Title:  Just in Case You Thought Sea Surface Temperatures around the Globe Responded Similarly to Strong El Niños

This is an update of the post here published back in March.  It will illustrate quite clearly that the responses of ocean surface temperatures differ noticeably with strong El Niño events—those in 1997/98 and 2015/16.  Continue reading

Posted in 2015-16 El Nino Series, ENSO Update, Uncategorized | 7 Comments

In Honor of Secretary of State John Kerry’s Global Warming Publicity-Founded Visit to Greenland…

…A Few Model-Data Comparisons of Greenland Surface Air Temperatures

Mass losses from Greenland’s ice sheets have been one of the focuses of alarmists for decades. In fact, last week, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry visited Greenland on a (boreal) summertime tour of parts of Greenland in an apparent political publicity stunt. See The Washington Post article John Kerry just visited the most stunning example of our changing climate by Chris Mooney. It’s chock full of alarmist babble. Great for a laugh.  Why a laugh?  Read on.

One of the principal contributing factors to the losses of Greenland’s ice sheets is surface temperature. So we’ll focus this model-data comparison on the surface air temperatures of Greenland.  And speculation from the climate science community about Greenland surface temperatures and their impacts on ice sheet mass loss there and the contribution of those losses to sea level rise are based on climate models.  As you’ll see, the consensus of the climate models used by the IPCC show the models cannot simulate Greenland’s surface temperatures over any timeframe from 1861 to present.  Why then do people believe the model-based speculations about the future of Greenland surface temperatures, ice sheet losses and global sea levels?  Because John Kerry wasted taxpayer dollars on a fossil-fuel-consuming trip to Greenland and then tweeted about it? Continue reading

Posted in Model-Data Comparison LSAT | 9 Comments

May 2016 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

This post provides an update of the values for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature reconstructions—GISS through May 2016 and HADCRUT4 and NCEI (formerly NCDC) through April 2016—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature composites (RSS and UAH) through May 2016. It also includes a model-data comparison. Continue reading

Posted in Global Temperature Update, TLT and LOST Updates | 4 Comments

May 2016 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

INITIAL NOTE

This is the second month with the new format.  I’ve replaced the smoothed curve with a horizontal line that represents the Current Value.

MONTHLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP

The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for May 2016.  It was downloaded from the KNMI Climate Explorer. The contour range was set to -2.5 to +2.5 deg C and the anomalies are referenced to the WMO-preferred period of 1981-2010.

00 Map

May 2016 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.34 deg C)

MONTHLY GLOBAL OVERVIEW

Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies made a downtick in May, a decrease of about -0.02 deg C. Surface temperature anomalies rose in the Northern Hemisphere, but that rise was more than countered by a decrease in the Southern Hemisphere. Last month, the ocean basins that showed warming were the North Atlantic, North Pacific and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. The El Niño peaked in November, and the global sea surface temperature response to the El Niño peaked as well, about 2 months later in January 2016.     Continue reading

Posted in SST Update | 19 Comments

May 2016 ENSO Update – The 2015/16 El Niño Has Reached Its End

This post provides an update of many of the ENSO-related variables we presented as part of the 2014-15 El Niño Series and for the 2015/16 El Niño series.

INTRODUCTION

In the recent post Say Good-Bye to the 2015/16 El Niño, we illustrated and discussed how the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific had dropped below NOAA’s +0.5 deg C threshold for El Niño conditions for the week centered on May 18thWeekly sea surface temperature anomalies for that region are now below zero.    Continue reading

Posted in 2015-16 El Nino Series, ENSO Update | 21 Comments

Say Goodbye to the 2015/16 El Niño

Plus a Few Freebees at the End of the Post

The sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific are bordered by the coordinates of 5S-5N, 170W-120W.  They are used by NOAA and other meteorological agencies to define when an El Niño event is taking place.  According to the most-recent weekly satellite-enhanced data, the temperature anomalies for that region have dropped below the +0.5 deg C threshold between El Niño and ENSO-neutral phases, the latter of which is the “normal” phase of the tropical Pacific when neither El Niño or La Niña are taking place.

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Posted in 2015-16 El Nino Series, ENSO Update | 4 Comments

Three Free Ebooks on Global Warming and Climate Change

They are ebooks in .pdf format:

  • On Global warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1 presents the basics and illusions behind the hypothesis of global warming and climate change,
  • Who Turned on the Heat? is a comprehensive examination of The processes and long-term global-warming aftereffects of El Niños and La Niñas, which are the dominant weather events on Earth, and
  • Climate Models Fail, as its title suggests is about the poor performance of climate models.

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Posted in Essays & Books | 2 Comments