This post provides an initial look at climate model simulations of the top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy budget and its three components. It includes the outputs of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive (used by the IPCC for the 5th Assessment Report).
There are astonishing differences in the modeled estimates of the past, present and future imbalances and the three components that make up the top of the atmosphere (TOA) energy budget. That is, there is no agreement on the magnitude of TOA Earth’s energy imbalance in the models, and there are even wider disagreements in the calculated components that make up that energy budget, how they evolved in the past, and how they may evolve in the future…all suggesting, among the models, there is little agreement in the modeled processes and physics that contribute to global warming now, contributed to it in the past and might contribute to it in the future. Continue reading
This post provides an update of many of the ENSO-related variables we presented as part of last year’s 2014-15 El Niño Series. The reference years for comparison graphs in this post are 1997 and 2014, which are the development years of the strongest recent El Niño and the last El Niño. I have not included animations in this post. In their place, I’ve compared present-day maps from the NOAA GODAS website to the same time in 2014.
Note: In addition to the standard time-series presentations of global, NINO3.4, hemispheric and ocean basin sea surface temperature anomalies, I’ve also added an updated graph of the sea surface temperature anomalies for The Blob to the standard format of the monthly sea surface temperature updates at my website, starting with the April 2015 update. I have not posted the update for the July anomalies yet.
There are two notable things this month. First, NINO3.4 region sea surface temperature anomalies, which NOAA uses as its primary metric for determining the strength of an El Niño, are running a tick ahead of the 1997/98 El Niño. But there’s still a ways to go before the peak of this event. We’ll illustrate the sea surface temperature-based indices in a moment.
Second, there appears to have been yet another westerly wind bust in the western tropical Pacific recently. Continue reading
The post provides a look at the most recent weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for the equatorial Pacific. It also includes a Hovmoller diagram of the wind stress (not anomalies) along the equator…to confirm that there was another westerly wind burst at the beginning of last month. Continue reading
A week or so ago, a troll left a link at my blog to a supposed-to-be-alarming blog post about a new climate study of ocean heat content. According to the study, a revised method of tweaking ocean heat reconstructions has manufactured new warming so that the top 700 meters of the oceans are warming faster than predicted by climate models. In other words, the “missing heat” is missing no more. Continue reading
UPDATE: It was pointed out in a comment that the model-data comparison in the post was skewed. I was comparing modeled marine air temperature minus modeled sea surface temperature anomalies to observed night marine air temperature minus sea surface temperature anomalies. Close, but not quite the same. I’ve crossed out that section and the references to it and removed the graphs. Sorry. It was a last-minute addition that was a mistake. (Memo to self: Stop making last minute additions.) Thanks, Phil.
The rest of the post is correct.
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The saga continues. For those new to this topic, see the backstory near the end of the post.
Grant Foster (a.k.a. Tamino and Hansen’s Bulldog) has written yet another post The Bob about my simple comparison of the new NOAA pause-buster sea surface temperature dataset and the UKMO HADNMAT2 marine air temperature dataset that was used for bias adjustments on that NOAA dataset. In it, he quotes a comment at his blog from Miriam O’Brien, a.k.a. Sou from HotWhopper. Miriam recycled a flawed argument that I addressed over a month ago.
In his post, after falsely claiming that I hadn’t looked for reasons for the difference between the night marine air temperature data and the updated NOAA sea surface temperature data during the hiatus, Grant Foster presented a model that was based on a multivariate regression analysis…in an attempt to explain that difference. Right off the get go, though, you can see that Hansen’s Bulldog lost focus again. He also failed to list the time lags and scaling factors for the individual variables so that his results can be verified. We’re also interested in those scaling factors to see if the relative weighting of the individual components are proportioned properly for a temperature-related global dataset. To overcome that lack of information from Grant Foster, I also used a multivariate regression analysis to determine the factors. I think you’ll find the results interesting.
Last, before presenting his long-term graph of the difference between the HADNMAT2 and ERSST.v4 datasets, Grant Foster forgot to check which ocean surface temperature dataset climate models say should be warming faster: the ocean surface or the marine air directly above it. That provides us with another way to show that NOAA overcooked their adjustments to their sea surface temperature data. Continue reading
Or In a Discussion of the Hiatus Since 1998, Grant Foster Presents Trends from 1970 to 2010, Go Figure!
Statistician Grant Foster (a.k.a. blogger Tamino, who also likes to call himself Hansen’s Bulldog) is back to his one of his old debate tactics again: redirection. Or maybe a squirrel passed by and, like Dug the talking dog from Pixar’s Up, Hansen’s Bulldog simply lost track of the topic at hand.
As you are well aware, there is a very basic difference between the updates to the NOAA and UAH global temperature datasets: the NOAA update increased the warming rate of their product during the slowdown in global surface warming, while the UAH update decreased the warming rate of their lower troposphere dataset in that timeframe. We’ll discuss another basic difference between those updates in this post. Continue reading
This is the first of a series of posts about the impacts of NOAA’s new pause-buster sea surface temperature data on the global temperature products from GISS and NCEI (formerly NCDC). In this post, we’re going to compare the three recent versions of the GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index from 1979 to 2014, from 1998 to 2014 and from 2001 to 2014. Continue reading
This is the June 2015 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly & Model-Data Difference Update, but in it we’re presenting the new GISS and NCEI surface temperature products…and the UAH lower troposphere temperature data version 6. Continue reading
This post provides an update of many of the ENSO-related variables we presented as part of last year’s 2014-15 El Niño Series. The reference years for comparison graphs in this post are 1997 and 2014, which are the development years of the strongest recent El Niño and the last El Niño. I have not included animations in this post. In their place, I’ve compared present-day maps from the NOAA GODAS website to the same time in 2014. Continue reading