June 2013 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

MONTHLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MAP

The following is a Global map of Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for June 2013. It was downloaded from the NOMADS website. The contour levels are set at 0.5 deg C, and white is set at zero.

0 Map

June 2013 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Map

(Global SST Anomaly = +0.186 deg C)

MONTHLY OVERVIEW

The sea surface temperature anomalies for the NINO3.4 region in the eastern equatorial Pacific (5S-5N, 170E-120E) are a commonly used index for the strength, frequency and duration of El Niño and La Nina events. We keep an eye on the sea surface temperatures there because El Niño and La Niña events are the primary cause of the yearly variations in global sea surface temperatures AND they are the primary cause of the long-term warming of global sea surface temperatures over the past 30 years. See the discussion of the East Pacific versus the Rest-of-the-World that follows.

Monthly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies are just below zero, cycling a little. In the most recent month they warmed a little more than 0.1 deg C (+0.119 deg C). They’re presently at about -0.078 deg C. They’re well within El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions, meaning they’re not El Niño or La Niña conditions. Also refer to the discussion of the weekly NINO3.4 data near the bottom of the post.

Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies cooled a little (-0.036 deg C) from May to June, with a very slight warming in the Northern Hemisphere being offset by the cooling in the Southern Hemisphere. The ocean basins that warmed are the same as last month: the South Atlantic, North Pacific, and Arctic Oceans. The monthly Global Sea Surface Temperature anomalies are presently at +0.186 deg C.

01 Global

(1) Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Monthly Change = -0.036 deg C

####################################

02 NINO3.4

(2) NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

(5S-5N, 170W-120W)

Monthly Change = +0.119 deg C

####################################

THE EAST PACIFIC VERSUS THE REST OF THE WORLD

The East Pacific and the Rest-Of-The-World (Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific) datasets were first discussed in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World, and were discussed a few months later in How Can Things So Obvious Be Overlooked By The Climate Science Community?

They were also discussed in great detail in my recently published book Who Turned on the Heat? The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The Updated Free Preview includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing. Also see the blog post Everything You Every Wanted to Know about El Niño and La Niña… for an overview. The book is only US$8.00. Please click here to buy a copy. (Paypal or Credit/Debit Card. You do not need to open a PayPal account.)

In the following two graphs, both datasets have been adjusted for the impacts of volcanic aerosols. I’m considering eliminating the volcano adjustments, because they add very little to the discussion. In fact, some persons use those adjustments as an excuse to disregard the obvious.

The global oceans were divided into these two subsets to illustrate a couple of facts. First, the linear trend of the volcano-adjusted East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies since the start of the Reynolds OI.v2 dataset is basically flat. That is, the East Pacific hasn’t warmed in 31+ years. The East Pacific is not a small region. It represents about 33% of the surface area of the global oceans. The East Pacific linear trend varies very slightly with each monthly update. But it won’t vary significantly between El Niño and La Niña events.

03 East Pac

(3) Volcano-Adjusted East Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-90N, 180-80W)

####################################

And second, the volcano-adjusted Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the Rest of the World (90S-90N, 80W-180) rise in very clear steps, in response to the significant 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño/La Niña events. It also appears as though the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of this dataset June have made another upward shift in response to the 2009/10 El Niño and 2010/11 La Niña events. For those who are interested in the actual trends of the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies between the 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 El Niño events and between the 1997/98 and 2009/10 El Niño events refer to Figure 4 in Does The Sea Surface Temperature Record Support The Hypothesis Of Anthropogenic Global Warming? I further described (at an introductory level) the ENSO-related processes that cause these upward steps in the post ENSO Indices Do Not Represent The Process Of ENSO Or Its Impact On Global Temperature. And as noted above, it is discussed in detail in my recently published book Who Turned on the Heat? The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

04 ROW

(4) Volcano-Adjusted Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies For The Rest of the World

(90S-90N, 80W-180)

####################################

The periods used for the average Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature anomalies between the significant El Niño events of 1982/83, 1986/87/88, 1997/98, and 2009/10 are determined as follows. Using the original NOAA Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for the official months of those El Niño events, I shifted (lagged) those El Niño periods by six months to accommodate the lag between NINO3.4 SST anomalies and the response of the Rest-Of-The-World Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, then deleted the Rest-Of-The-World data that corresponds to those significant El Niño events. I then averaged the Rest-Of-The-World SST anomalies between those El Niño-related gaps.

The “Nov 2010 to Present” average varies with each update. As noted in the post Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – East Pacific Versus The Rest Of The World, it will be interesting to see where that Sea Surface Temperature anomaly average settles out, if it does, before the next significant El Niño drives them higher.

Of course, something could shift. Will the upward ratcheting continue when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) decides to turn around and start its decline? The upward steps would not continue in the North Atlantic, but would the AMO impact the upward steps in other portions of the globe? For more information about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, refer to the post An Introduction To ENSO, AMO, and PDO — Part 2.

The Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of the East Pacific Ocean, or approximately 33% of the surface area of the global oceans, have decreased slightly since 1982 based on the linear trend. And between upward shifts, the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the rest of the world (67% of the global ocean surface area) remain relatively flat. As discussed in my book, anthropogenic forcings are said to be responsible for most of the rise in global surface temperatures over this period, but the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly graphs of those two areas prompt a two-part question: Since 1982, what anthropogenic global warming processes would overlook the Sea Surface Temperatures of 33% of the global oceans and have an impact on the other 67% but only during the months of the significant El Niño events of 1986/87/88, 1997/98 and 2009/10?

STANDARD NOTE ABOUT THE DATA

Other than the East Pacific and Rest-of-the-World data shown immediately above, the MONTHLY graphs illustrate raw monthly OI.v2 sea surface temperature anomaly data from November 1981 to June 2013, as it is presented by the NOAA NOMADS website linked at the end of the post. NOAA uses the base years of 1971-2000 for this dataset. I’ve added the 13-month running-average filter to smooth out the seasonal variations.

MONTHLY INDIVIDUAL OCEAN AND HEMISPHERIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE UPDATES

05 No Hem

(5) Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

Monthly Change = +0.010 deg C

####################################

06 So Hem

(6) Southern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

Monthly Change = -0.071 deg C

####################################

07 No Atl

(7) North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 70N, 80W to 0)

Monthly Change = -0.103 deg C

####################################

08 So Atl

(8) South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 70W to 20E)

Monthly Change = +0.014 deg C

Note: I discussed the (now apparently temporary) upward shift in the South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the post The 2009/10 Warming Of The South Atlantic. Prior to that shift, the South Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies had been relatively flat for about two decades. It now looks as though the South Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies have dropped below the level they were at before that surge.

####################################

09 Pacific

(9) Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(60S to 65N, 120E to 80W)

Monthly Change = -0.021 Deg C

####################################

10 No Pac

(10) North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 65N, 100E to 90W)

Monthly Change = +0.104 Deg C

####################################

11 So Pac

(11) South Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(0 to 60S, 120E to 70W)

Monthly Change = -0.143 deg C

####################################

12 Indian

(12) Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(60S to 30N, 20E to 120E)

Monthly Change = -0.091 deg C

####################################

13 Arctic

(13) Arctic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(65N to 90N)

Monthly Change = +0.168 deg C

####################################

14 Southern

(14) Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

(90S-60S)

Monthly Change = -0.013 deg C

####################################

WEEKLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

The NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature anomalies based on the week centered on June 3, 2013 are below zero but well above La Niña condition, which are defined by NOAA as being cooler than -0.5 deg C. They are presently at -0.06 deg C.

15 Weekly NINO3.4

(15) Weekly NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

####################################

Global sea surface temperature anomalies had been cooling for a few weeks until 3 weeks ago, and now they’ve rebound (warming) over the past few weeks. They are at +0.234 deg C.

16 Weekly Global

(16) Weekly Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

####################################

The NINO1+2 region is in the far eastern tropical Pacific. It is bordered by the coordinates of 10S-0, 90W-80W. Weekly sea surface temperature anomalies there are still very cool for an ENSO neutral period. They are presently at -1.67 deg C.

17 Weekly NINO1+2

(17) Weekly NINO1+2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

####################################

INTERESTED IN LEARNING MORE ABOUT HOW AND WHY THE GLOBAL OCEANS INDICATE THEY’VE WARMED NATURALLY?

Why should you be interested? The hypothesis of manmade global warming depends on manmade greenhouse gases being the cause of the recent warming. But the sea surface temperature record indicates El Niño and La Niña events are responsible for the warming of global sea surface temperature anomalies over the past 31 years, not manmade greenhouse gases. Scroll back up to the discussion of the East Pacific versus the Rest of the World. I’ve searched sea surface temperature records for more than 4 years, and I can find no evidence of an anthropogenic greenhouse gas signal. That is, the warming of the global oceans has been caused by Mother Nature, not anthropogenic greenhouse gases.

I’ve recently published my e-book (pdf) about the phenomena called El Niño and La Niña. It’s titled Who Turned on the Heat? with the subtitle The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño Southern Oscillation. It is intended for persons (with or without technical backgrounds) interested in learning about El Niño and La Niña events and in understanding the natural causes of the warming of our global oceans for the past 30 years. Because land surface air temperatures simply exaggerate the natural warming of the global oceans over annual and multidecadal time periods, the vast majority of the warming taking place on land is natural as well. The book is the product of years of research of the satellite-era sea surface temperature data that’s available to the public via the internet. It presents how the data accounts for its warming—and there are no indications the warming was caused by manmade greenhouse gases. None at all.

Who Turned on the Heat? was introduced in the blog post Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about El Niño and La Niña… …Well Just about Everything. The Updated Free Preview includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing.

Please buy a copy. (Paypal or Credit/Debit Card). You do not need to have a PayPal account. Simply scroll down to the purchase option Simply scroll down to the “Don’t Have a PayPal Account” purchase option. It’s only US$8.00.

SOURCES

The Sea Surface Temperature anomaly data used in this post is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:

http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

or:

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite=

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About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
This entry was posted in SST Update. Bookmark the permalink.

6 Responses to June 2013 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update

  1. Gary Pearse says:

    I note that it doesn’t matter which area of the ocean you look at, the last number of years are down.

  2. Pingback: UAH June Update & Holidays | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

  3. Thanks for all your excellent work BOB…Your passion for this topic blows me away
    In terms of the step like pattern in global temps. They sort of look like plateaus

    Why is the upward step steeper than the downward step by about 2.5 l think..
    Any ideas on this?

    Also is there a spatial pattern for the AMO in the Atlantic like the characteristic horseshoe for the PDO in the North pacific?
    any links to pics’ of that?

  4. Bob Tisdale says:

    weathercycles says: “Why is the upward step steeper than the downward step by about 2.5 l think..
    Any ideas on this?”

    I hate to answer a question with a question, but what downward steps?

    The upward steps in graph of the sea surface temperature anomalies of the rest-of-the-world (Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific) are caused by the warm water that’s left over from the El Nino events of 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 and 2009/10. I provide a detailed introductory discussion of that in my essay “The Manmade Global Warming Challenge” [42MB]:
    http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/the-manmade-global-warming-challenge.pdf

    Regards

  5. crikey says:

    Thanks BOB. I did read your link provided above finally. Fascinating stuff !! and enlightening.!!!
    I have been reading about some global cooling theories such as the 200 yr De Vries cycle. Dalton , maunder minimuim etc..This is an interest of mine.

    I gather from reading the link you provided on oceans naturally controlling climate temperature that in order for global cooling to take place we would need ..
    More La ninas to hide the heat in the depths of oceans for a long period of time ?

    .and
    for global cooling to occur we would need weaker and less frequent el ninos to distribute ocean heat…? excuse my infancy in this area
    More heat would have to be stored in the oceans and not released?
    Less El ninos to distribute heat..

    Stronger trades to store the heat deeper?

    I would appreciate your comments on how you would view ENSO in a global cooling scenario

    would you consider a post on this very important topic.

    Cyclic analysis of climate indicates a global cooling..in the decades to come
    How do you see ENSO behaving if this were to occur.?
    I have measured that the upticks have been 2.5 times longer than the downticks since 1879 to 2005.
    ( two whole down up cycles ) see the graph link

    graph showing up and down ticks in global temp’ produced by surly bond
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1189956/2
    http://i188.photobucket.com/albums/z49/Supeito/weatherz3/HadCRUTsmooth.gif

    I suspect for global cooling the opposite would occur.
    The downward tick would be longer or steeper ( duration * rate of change) than the upward slope.
    Does that mean the slopping of the pacific ocean or sea level would be higher in the west pacific for global cooling?
    Just curious…..
    regards
    weathercycles

    Thanks BOB. I did read your link provided above finally. Fascinating stuff !! and enlightening.!!!
    I have been reading about some global cooling theories such as the 200 yr De Vries cycle. Dalton , maunder minimuim etc..This is an interest of mine.

    I gather from reading the link you provided on oceans naturally controlling climate temperature that in order for global cooling to take place we would need ..
    More La ninas to hide the heat in the depths of oceans for a long period of time ?

    .and
    for global cooling to occur we would need weaker and less frequent el ninos to distribute ocean heat…? excuse my infancy in this area
    More heat would have to be stored in the oceans and not released?
    Less El ninos to distribute heat..

    Stronger trades to store the heat deeper?

    I would appreciate your comments on how you would view ENSO in a global cooling scenario

    would you consider a post on this very important topic.

    Cyclic analysis of climate indicates a global cooling..in the decades to come
    How do you see ENSO behaving if this were to occur.?
    I have measured that the upticks have been 2.5 times longer than the downticks since 1879 to 2005.
    ( two whole down up cycles ) see the graph link

    graph showing up and down ticks in global temp’ produced by surly bond
    http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1189956/2
    http://i188.photobucket.com/albums/z49/Supeito/weatherz3/HadCRUTsmooth.gif

    I suspect for global cooling the opposite would occur.
    The downward tick would be longer or steeper ( duration * rate of change) than the upward slope.
    Does that mean the slopping of the pacific ocean or sea level would be higher in the west pacific for global cooling?
    Just curious…..
    regards
    weathercycles

  6. Bob Tisdale says:

    crikey: Unfortunately, I don’t study many of the topics you’re raising. Example:

    You asked, “Cyclic analysis of climate indicates a global cooling..in the decades to come How do you see ENSO behaving if this were to occur.?”

    I don’t pay attention to cyclic analysis of climate indicates. Sorry.

    I’ve only really analyzed the past 31-years of sea surface temperature data due to the reliability and completeness of the satellite-era data. We’ve had two natural variables contributing to the warming during that time: ENSO and the AMO. The additional warming of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic was a response to the AMO. How will sea surface temperatures there and around the globe respond to ENSO when the AMO flattens the warming of the North Atlantic…or cools it? Dunno. We haven’t seen that happen yet.

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