You’re read my posts about the long-term effects of ENSO, and you’ve always had a question or two. If you think they should be answered in my upcoming book about ENSO and its long-term effects, now’s the time to ask them. I’ve included the current table of contents to give you an idea of what’s covered. Hopefully, it will rekindle those questions.
It was suggested that I include questions and answers in my upcoming book Who Turned on the Heat? The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño-Southern Oscillation. There will be a separate Q&A section at the end. It will include questions I’ve been asked a number of times. Some have already been answered explicitly and implicitly in the book, but the ones I do plan to include as separate chapters are:
A: Since El Niño Events Create an Effect Where Sea Surface Temperature Appear to Ratchet Upwards, How Can Global Sea Surface Temperatures Flatten or Cool for Multidecadal Periods?
B: If Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases Don’t Warm the Oceans, What Forcing Causes Them to Warm? (The assumption in that question is that radiative forcings are required to cause sea surface temperature and ocean heat content to warm.)
C: In the East Pacific and West Indian Oceans, Would the Cooling Rates after Major El Niño events be Faster if Anthropogenic Greenhouses Gases Weren’t Warming the Oceans?
D: Is There Any Evidence That Downward Longwave (Infrared) Radiation from Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases Warms the Oceans (Sea Surface Temperature or Ocean Heat Content)?
E: Why is using Global Data as a Metric for Global Warming Misleading?
Since I’ve added a few chapters and rearranged things a little since the last time I posted the Table of Contents, here’s how it presently exists:
Section 1 – A Description of El Niño and La Niña Events Using Annotated Illustrations
1.1 Preliminary Discussion of the ENSO Annotated Illustrations
1.2 The ENSO Annotated Illustrations
1.3 Recap of Section 1
Section 2 – A Few Preliminary Discussions
2.1 Do the Words “Oscillation” and “Cycle” in the names “El Niño-Southern Oscillation” and “ENSO Cycle” Cause Misunderstandings?
2.2 The Types of Graphs Presented
2.3 Linear Trends
2.4 How El Niño and La Niña Events Present Themselves in the Sea Surface Temperature Record
2.5 Our Primary ENSO Index is NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
2.6 How ENSO Events Are Presented in the Text
2.7 On the Use of Anomalies
2.8 Converting Monthly Absolute Data to Anomalies
2.9 Using the Model Mean of the IPCC’s Climate Models
2.10 Why We’ll Be Using Satellite-Based Sea Surface Temperature Data
2.11 Data Smoothing and Detrending
2.12 The IPCC Says Only Climate Models Forced by Manmade Greenhouse Gases can Explain the Recent Warming
2.13 The Additional Mode of Natural Variability in the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures—Introduction to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
2.14 The Two Primary Data Sources
2.15 Recap of Section 2
Section 3 – A More-Detailed Discussion of ENSO Processes
3.1 A Quick Look at the Size of the Pacific Ocean
3.2 Pacific Trade Winds and Ocean Currents
3.3 Putting the Equatorial Pacific Cross Sections in Perspective
3.4 The ENSO-Neutral State of the Tropical Pacific
3.5 The Transition from ENSO-Neutral to El Niño
3.6 El Niño Phase
3.7 The Transition from El Niño to ENSO Neutral
3.8 La Niña Phase
3.9 The Transition from La Niña to ENSO Neutra
3.10 The Recharge of Ocean Heat during the La Niña
3.11 Summary of Section 3
Section 4 – Additional ENSO Discussions
4.1 How El Niño Events Cause Surface Temperatures to Warm Outside of the Tropical Pacific
4.2 Central Pacific versus East Pacific El Niño Events
4.3 ENSO Indices
4.4 ENSO Indices Also Fail to Capture the Relative Strengths of ENSO Events
4.5 The Repeating Sequence of Primary and Secondary El Niño Events
4.6 A Look at How a Few More Tropical Pacific Variables Respond to ENSO
4.7 ENSO Events Run in Synch with the Annual Seasonal Cycle
4.8 Subsurface Temperature and Temperature Anomaly Variations in the Equatorial Pacific And an Introduction to Kelvin Waves
4.9 An Introduction to the Delayed Oscillator Mechanism
4.10 ENSO Versus the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
4.11 There is a Multidecadal Component to ENSO
4.12 ENSO Monitoring
4.13 An Introduction to the Indian Ocean Dipole and How It’s Impacted by ENSO
4.14 Impacts of ENSO Events on Regional Temperature and Precipitation
4.15 Further Discussion on What Initiates an ENSO Event
4.16 Weak, Moderate and Strong ENSO Event Thresholds
4.17 ENSO – A Cycle or Series of Events?
4.18 ENSO Influence on Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes)
Section 5 – The Long-Term Impacts of Major ENSO Events on Global Temperature Anomalies
5.1 No Surprise – East Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Mimic ENSO, But Where’s The Anthropogenic Global Warming Signal?
5.2 But Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Have Warmed During the Satellite Era
5.3 Where and Why Sea Surface Temperatures Can Warm in Response to Certain El Niño AND La Niña Events
5.4 The Obvious ENSO-Caused Upward Shifts in the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans
5.5 The ENSO-Caused Upward Shifts Still Exist if We Add the South Atlantic and West Indian Sea Surface Temperature Data to the East Indian and West Pacific
5.6 The Additional Warming of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures is Caused by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation AND Additional ENSO-Impacted Processes
5.7 The IPCC’s Climate Models do a Terrible Job of Simulating East Pacific, “North Atlantic Plus”, and South Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures
5.8 Scientific Studies of the IPCC’s Climate Models Reveal How Poorly the Models Simulate ENSO Processes
5.9 A Look at the Long-Term Impacts of ENSO and Other Natural Variables on Ocean Heat Content Data
5.10 The Obvious Long-Term Impacts of ENSO on Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomalies
5.11 The Obvious Long-Term Impacts of ENSO on Land Plus Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
5. 12 Follow the Leftover Warm Water – The Importance of the Warming of the Pacific Western Boundary Current Extensions Following Major El Niño Events
Section 6 –Common ENSO-Related Myths
[NOTE: It has been noted before that some of the topics in this section are very similar. But they imply different things and should be answered separately, with different examples, so I’ll leave them as independent discussions.]
6.1 ENSO is an Oscillation and as Such Cannot Contribute to the Long-Term Trend
6.2 A New One – ENSO Balances Out to Zero over the Long-Term
6.3 ENSO Only Adds Noise to the Instrument Temperature Record and We Can Remove its Effects through Linear Regression Analysis
6.4 The Effects of La Niña Events Oppose those of El Niño Events
6.5 Correlation is Not Causation. Just Because the Upward Steps Occur at the Same Time as the Major El Niño Events Doesn’t Mean Those El Niño Events Caused the Upward Steps
6.6 Move Along – There’s Nothing to See Here – The Surface Temperature Record Always Shows Decadal Periods of Flat or Cooling Temperatures
6.7 The Warm Water Available for El Niño Events Can Only be Explained by Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Forcing
6.8 The Frequency and Strength of El Niño and La Niña Events are Dictated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Section 7 – Questions and Answers
7.1 Since El Niño Events Create an Effect Where Sea Surface Temperature Appear to Ratchet Upwards, How Can Global Sea Surface Temperatures Flatten or Cool for Multidecadal Periods?
7.2 If Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases Don’t Warm the Oceans, What Forcing Causes Them to Warm? (The assumption in that question is that radiative forcings are required to cause sea surface temperature and ocean heat content to warm.)
7.3 In the East Pacific and West Indian Oceans, Would the Cooling Rates after Major El Niño events be Faster if Anthropogenic Greenhouses Gases Weren’t Warming the Oceans?
7.4 Is There Any Evidence That Downward Longwave (Infrared) Radiation from Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases Warms the Oceans (Sea Surface Temperature or Ocean Heat Content)?
7.5 Why is using Global Data as a Metric for Global Warming Misleading?
Section 8 – Closing
I’ll close this post with two questions:
What questions would you like to add to Section 7?
What ENSO-related topics have I missed?