I’ll provide the September update in a week or so, but I found the following interesting.
According to the animation of subsurface temperature anomalies along the equatorial Pacific, which is available from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomaly Animation webpage, another downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave may be forming in the western tropical Pacific…without an offsetting upwelling (cool) Kelvin wave between this one and the last.
Figure 1 is the most recent equatorial cross-section from the current animation. I’ve added a note to it as well. Already, subsurface anomalies west of the dateline are in the +1 to +2 deg C and +2 to +3 deg C ranges. Because the water is normally cooler in the eastern equatorial Pacific, those subsurface anomalies will intensify as they travel eastward. While the warm waters lose some of their punch as they rise to the surface, (it’s normally warmer at the surface) they still may be warm enough for a moderate El Niño…assuming the atmospheric feedbacks kick in.
And the following is the most recent animation in full.
NOAA Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomaly Animation
That’s all, folks.