Happy Holidays!!

Posted on December 25, 2012 by Bob Tisdale

Enjoy your holidays.

I’ve got another model-data comparison in the works–this time satellite-era precipitation data.  I’m hoping to post it on Wednesday the 26th.  Most visitors here will enjoy it; others won’t.

Best regards.

About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.
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8 Responses to Happy Holidays!!

  1. Go Whitecaps says:
    December 25, 2012 at 3:44 pm

    Merry Christmas from the Left (wet) Coast.

  2. Conor McMenemie says:
    December 27, 2012 at 7:59 am

    Happy Christmas & New year Bob. I have a chart I want to send. How do I do this? Despite all your SST info and scrutiny the perrenial missing link is variability of equitorial cloud above the oceans and how much additional solar energy is allowed to pass the ITCZ barrier due to cloud mass variability. From my perspective, changes in the Sub Saharan arena is the main feature in determining SST variability, but unfortunatly the met professions has this processed reversed -m and ignores the fact that even if they were right there would still be reduced cloud over the equitorial oceans causing increased SSTs – they refuse to look at the effects of even their own logic, never mind mine!

  3. Bob Tisdale says:
    December 27, 2012 at 10:25 am

    Conor: The simplest thing to do is to upload your graph to a picture sharing website like TinyPic, then include the link to it in your next comment:
    http://tinypic.com/

  4. Conor McMenemie says:
    December 27, 2012 at 9:07 pm

    Thanks for the tip Bob. Now for the big question. The attached chart demonstrates Sub Saharan rainfall 20 yrs after 1964 compared to 20 years before, by latitude (5N to 20N). Popular climate theory is that Atlantic SST variability is the main factor affecting Sahelian rainfall (18 to 20N). But as you can see, what is happening in those climes is mearly part of a complex that is affecting the whole Sub Saharan region, and that this rainfall variability is predominently towards the latter part of the Sub Saharan Rainy Season. From the Nile Climate Engin perspective it is the reduced cloud flux from the Sub Saharan region pulled over the Equitorial Atlantic that is allowing for the increase in absorbed solar energy ~ heat. IS there anything to your knowledge in respect to SST variability that will produce the circumstances which promote the rainfall variability???? I have been persuing this question for 3 years and have yet to get an honest answer.
    conor

    http://tinypic.com/r/os4p47/6

  5. Bob Tisdale says:
    December 27, 2012 at 10:32 pm

    Conor: I hate to tell you this, but your linked table…
    http://tinypic.com/r/os4p47/6
    …is meaningless to me. Also, I have little interest in Sub Saharan rainfall so I’m not sure why you’ve elected to share that table with me and my visitors.

    Regards

  6. Conor McMenemie says:
    December 28, 2012 at 7:16 am

    Bob, if I were averse to harsh criticisim I would have taken up crochet instead of Saharan rainfall!

    The question is central to what we are both trying to achieve. This chart of SST variablity (HadiSST1) stretches across the Atlantic (then into the Pacific), and at first glance would be viewed as consistent with the prevailing mid Atlantic current. In reality it is part of a sequence of charts that shows the warmig pattern migrating north to south over the course of the year. This annual migration is inconsistent with the movement of the Atlantic currents, BUT is consistent with the trade winds above them (ITCZ). With the sun in this region providing 9 kwh per day at sea level (+- 0.75^C to a depth of 10 m of water/day), the amount of that solar energy which is allowed to pass thru the ITCZ cloud barrier, would ultimatly determine the ‘core temperature’ of the SST variability in this timeframe. As we can see, there is a very strong corelation between the SST and Global Mean Temperature. SO the amount of cloud (albedo: 70%) above the Equitorial Atlantic, like it or not, is a very significant factor in determining SST variability. Changes in the rain budget up wind (Sub Saharan Africa) as shown on the previous chart, is indicative of the amount of cloud that ends up covering the Equitorial Atlantic. IT is impossible to divorce the Atlantic SSTs and the cloud issue (applied solar energy).

    UNFORTUNATLY the UK Met Office works on the premise that Atlantic SST variability is the determining factor in changing the Sub Saharan rainfall; this is an insane perspective since they completely ignore the fact that, even if they were right, the reduced cloud cover would still produce the Atlantic warming – something they are trying to explain as being caused by CO2 or human emissions ! ! ! ! The planet has always been supplied with solar energy predominanly at the equator, with this energy dissipated round the planet by the sea currents – every indication is that there has been a major screw up, in that there has been a failure to recognise that a reduced mass of cloud, consistent with the reduced rainfall in Sub Saharan Africa, is causing the Equitorial Oceans to absorb more solar energy – CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE.

    SOOOO Bob, I ask you and your dedicated correspondents, to help try to explain how it is possible to ignore variability in the 9 kwh/day of solar energy when dealing with the attached SST warming.

    http://tinypic.com/r/29ei3x4/6

  7. Bob Tisdale says:
    December 28, 2012 at 8:36 am

    Conor McMenemie says: “Bob, if I were averse to harsh criticisim I would have taken up crochet instead of Saharan rainfall!”

    My earlier reply was not intended as harsh criticism. It was a realitstic comment.

    And let me rephrase my earlier comment: the subject matter you’re discussing, Saharan rainfall, does not interest me. If you’d like to discuss it with others, open you own blog.

    Regards

  8. Conor McMenemie says:
    December 28, 2012 at 8:59 am

    The punch line was ‘how can we explain the Equitorial Atlantic SST variability without dealing with the cloud issue?’ Forget I even mentioned Africa – ignore any refrence to it.

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