THIS BOOK IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE IN ANY FORMAT.
UPDATE 4 (March 13, 2012): I raised the price of the .pdf edition to $10.00. The Kindle edition should be available in a few days.
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UPDATE 3 (March 5, 2012): KINDLE EDITION COMING SOON. Due to the popularity of If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their Deceptive Ads? in .pdf form, I will be publishing a Kindle edition hopefully this week. The price of the Kindle edition will be $8.00, and the price of the .pdf edition will be has been raised to $10.00. Buy a copy in .pdf format.
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UPDATE 2 (February 17, 2012): This will be the update for typographical errors. Sorry to say, a few have been found:
Page 56, line 11 includes a wrong NINO3.4 coordinate. 120S should be 120W.
Page 66, line 8 should read, “…does not look as though the…”
[Thanks, Kevin Hearle.]
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UPDATE 1 (February 16, 2012): Many thanks to the multitude of visitors here and at the cross post at WattsUpWithThat who have purchased a copy of the book in the past day. Sales have exceeded my wildest dreams. It occurred to me as I was replying to a comment on this thread that I never prepared a synopsis. Here it is:
If the IPCC was Selling Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop Their Deceptive Ads? is intended for readers interested in anthropogenic global warming/climate change who have limited technical or science backgrounds, to show and explain how:
1. the IPCC has exaggerated the capabilities of the climate models they employ to make projections of future climate,
2. the comparisons of the surface temperature data and the IPCC’s climate model simulations for the 20thCentury actually contradict the hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming,
3. there is a very logical and natural explanation for most of the warming that has taken place over the past 30 years. Since the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is responsible for that warming, the book includes a very basic but very detailed explanation of that natural phenomenon. And,
4. the data they need to research the subject on their own, if they desire, is available to them in an easy-to-use format.
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Many visitors here and at WattsUpWithThat will remember that a little over three years ago I published my first posts that illustrated how the process of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) created what appeared to be upward shifts in the sea surface temperature anomalies of major portions of the global oceans. (Refer to those posts here and here, and the cross posts at WattsUpWithThat here and here.) In numerous follow-up posts since then, I have discussed, illustrated and animated the processes that cause those upward shifts.
I’ve also published a series of posts over the past year about the climate models used by the IPCC in their 4th Assessment Report (AR4). Those posts show how poorly those models simulated the rates at which global surface temperatures warmed and cooled when the 20th Century is broken down into the 2 warming periods and 2 “flat temperature” periods—periods that are acknowledged by the IPCC. There was also a post that showed how poorly the climate models used by the IPCC simulated sea surface temperatures over the last 30 years for the individual ocean basins on time-series and zonal-mean(latitude-based) bases. Many of those posts were also cross posted at WattsUpWithThat.
I’ve collected the content of all of those posts in an ebook (pdf format) titled If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop Their Deceptive Ads? (13MB) $10.00 (U.S.)
Cover art by Josh of CartoonsByJosh
I have tried take myself out of technical-writer mode to make the book reader-friendly. This, hopefully, will help those without technical backgrounds understand the story being told by the data. The book contains very basic discussions, including why temperature anomalies are being used in the graphs instead of absolute temperatures. Since the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major contributor to the rise in global sea surface temperatures during the satellite era, there is a 70-page section devoted to the many interrelated processes of ENSO. That section begins with very basic illustrations and discussions of trade winds and ocean currents in the Pacific Ocean, and ends with links to a series of animations. The ENSO section alone includes over 50 illustrations. In total, there are more than 200 illustrations in the book. I’ve also included a section that introduces the reader to the KNMI Climate Explorer, which is the source of the observations- and model-based data presented in the book. Using screen captures, it walks the reader, step by step, from downloading data, to entering the data into a spreadsheet, to creating a graph, to adding linear trend lines with equations.
All that for a grand total of $5.00 $10.00. Please buy a copy.
– Download immediately after purchase through PayPal account or with Credit and Debit Cards
– 240+ pages with over 200 illustrations
A copy of the introduction, table of contents, and closing can be found here:
The following are the opening notes:
Dear Readers,
This book does not present some new-fangled theory about manmade global warming. This is the story told by the instrument-based global surface temperature data and by the output data from the climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to simulate those global temperatures. I’m simply presenting the story told by the data and providing background information in layman terms to help you understand the story the data has been telling all along.
The book is based on my blog posts over the past three years at Climate Observations. Many of those posts have been cross posted by Anthony Watts at WattsUpWithThat, which is the world’s most-viewed website on global warming and climate change. I have, however, attempted in this book to present the discussions in very basic layman terms, where possible, with hope of making it easier to understand, especially by those without technical backgrounds.
Similar to my blog posts, I’ve kept many of the graphs at full page width. The reason: the data in the graphs, not my discussions of them, are what confirms or contradicts the hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming, or are what shows if the models can or cannot reproduce the rates at which global surface temperatures warmed and cooled over the 20thCentury. In a blog post, there are no page breaks, and page formatting is not a concern. The number of large graphs in this book, unfortunately, causes page formatting problems; only one graph at full page width will fit on a page. So there are pages with a graph and some text and blank space. If this book was a print version, the blank space would be a problem, but this is an ebook. The blank space doesn’t add to publishing costs.
Thank you for your interest in the topics discussed in this work. And, of course, my thanks to Josh of CartoonsbyJosh for the cover art.
Each page of the downloaded pdf is watermarked, starting with “Prepared exclusively for…” As far as I can tell, that’s standard language for pdf stamping. That does not mean I wrote the book exclusively for you. It means your downloaded copy was watermarked for you to remind you that your copy is for your use only.
I have no plans to publish hard cover or paperback versions. I also looked into Kindle Direct Publishing (KDP) and have decided to publish a Kindle edition. against it for now. Kindle Direct Publishing converts color images to black and white, and that would make most of the comparison graphs difficult to view. I also don’t believe links would work, and there are a plethora of links in the text, similar to a blog post.
Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations 
Bob,
Good job!! I was able to download your ebook in less than a minute after I hit the ‘Buy’ button. I have scanned it hurridly and now look forward to reading it. BTW, I appreciate the hyperlinks to your references.
Hi Bob
Thank you for your reply. I tried both links, the title link and the “buy a copy” link. In both cases I was redirected to paypal!
David Jones
David Jones: Check your email and try that link. Let me know here when you’ve got your copy.
Regards
Sorry, Bob, but I can’t agree that claim that “the data in the graphs, not my discussions of them, are what confirms or contradicts the hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming,”
Why do I say that? Well for a start we don’t fully understand the effect of long and short term cycles, but a 1000 year natural cycle and a superimposed 60 year natural cycle do appear to explain all the recorded data at least since the late 19th century.
But anyone could argue differently by ignoring the 60 year cycle and trying to claim that, by just looking at 30 years when it was rising, we should see an exponential climb.
Not so, I say, and my analysis is that the underlying 1000 year trend was increasing at 0.06 deg/decade around 1900 but now at around 0.05 deg/decade. If the 1000 year cycle repeats itself, I expect a maximum in 50 to 200 years or so.
But back on the subject of AGW, it simply cannot happen because physics says it can’t. Radiation from a cooler atmosphere cannot add thermal energy to a warmer surface, so the greenhouse conjecture is a physical impossibility. Let me explain in more detail …
When solar radiation (UV, visible and IR etc) travels through space we do not know what its end effect will be until it strikes something. We will observe its effect and say – there’s some light from the Sun – but it may be more light if it hits a white surface than a dark surface, as a camera exposure meter will confirm. It may generate thermal energy (more or less depending on what it strikes) or it may appear as light as it starts to penetrate the oceans, but end up as thermal energy in the deeper depths. Of course some will be reflected or scattered and strike another target sooner or later, and another etc.
My point is, “heat” is the transfer of thermal energy, but thermal energy is not a fixed amount of energy travelling along with radiation. The energy in the radiation has to go through a physical process of being converted to thermal energy. This happens only for those frequencies in the radiation which are above the natural frequencies that can be emitted by the target, because the target cannot re-emit those frequencies. (The hotter the source of spontaneous radiation, the higher will be the peak frequency.) So solar radiation can be converted to thermal energy in the Earth’s surface, but radiation emitted from a cooler atmosphere cannot be converted to thermal energy in a warmer surface. “Heat” only appears to be transferred (and only from hot to cold) because only radiation from hot to cold will be converted to extra thermal energy in the target.
It does not matter whether you are increasing the rate of warming in the morning or decreasing the rate of cooling later in the day, you still need extra thermal energy to do this. You cannot get this extra thermal energy from a cooler atmosphere, morning or evening. You cannot say the Second Law is not broken because of the direction of net radiation or net heat flow. All that matters is, what actually happens between any two points – one point on the surface and one point in a cooler atmosphere. What goes on between other “points” – a point on the Sun and another point on the surface is irrelevant. The Second Law must apply between any two points.
Bob,
Would you be interested in having your book translated into Spanish? My background is science, I’ve got an MBA by the University Phoenix, I have been translating Opera’s UI and help files for years and I am a (unsuccessful as for now) blogger. I would volunteer doing it. I believe there is a general lack of scientific-oriented literature in my language that will serve the conscious citizens around here and Latin America as well.
Just let me know your thoughts on this. Irrespective of your decision, I will of course buy your book.
Regards
Figaro: Thanks for the offer to translate the book. It’s a little early for me to be thinking along those lines, but I will definitely keep it in mind.
I’ll get in touch.
Regards
Doug Cotton says: “Sorry, Bob, but I can’t agree that claim that ‘the data in the graphs, not my discussions of them, are what confirms or contradicts the hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming,’”
You’re more than welcome to disagree. But the intent of that sentence was very simple, when it’s left in its original context. I was explaining why I kept many of the graphs at full-page width; that is, why I kept them as large as I could make them. That way they are easy to see and read. The data in the graphs are what is important. The data tells the story. I am simply describing what the data have to say. Nothing more, nothing less.
Dear Bob Tisdale,
I am Jean-Louis Pinault, a physicist retired from the BRGM (the French Geological Survey) in 2007. Since then, I have been devoting myself to issues related to climate change.
I discovered your blog recently (I am a new comer) and I will buy your book.
Reciprocally, I am pleased to inform you of my research on “Long oceanic wave resonance: implications on climate variability and global warming”. I think the subject that is addressed in this study should provide some new insight about global warming, planetary wave resonance being a phenomenon that was previously unsuspected. It appears as the missing link for quantifying and characterizing satisfactorily how variations in solar irradiance may impact the temperature of the planet, thus explaining global warming without any ambiguity.
I hope you will find some interest. I would be very pleased if you could give me your opinion.
You can find the context of this work to the address http://dl.free.fr/rjaIXu8XM, and the links to articles. You have to click on “Telecharger les fichiers” (download the files).
I thought it was interesting to contact you who think about climate change outside the mainstream. I will send to you my comments when I read your book.
Don’t hesitate to contact me, you have my e-mail.
Sincerelly yours,
Jean-Louis Pinault
Jean-Louis Pinault: Many thanks for visiting my website and purchasing a copy of my book. I hope you, with your background, will not be disappointed in it.
It is intended for readers interested in anthropogenic global warming/climate change with limited technical or science backgrounds, to show them how:
1. the IPCC has exaggerated the capabilities of the climate models they employ to make projections of future climate,
2. the comparisons of the surface temperature data and the IPCC’s climate model simulations for the 20th Century actually contradict the hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming,
3. there is an very logical and natural explanation for most of the warming that has taken place over the past 30 years. Since the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is responsible for that warming, the book includes a very basic but very detailed explanation of that natural phenomenon. And
4. the data they need to research the subject on their own, if they desire, is available to them in an easy-to-use format.
Hello friendly Bob 🙂
thanks for the book. I enjoy reading and learning.
I was thinking about buying Fritz Vahrenholts “Die Kalte Sonne” but then came accross your announcement and decided to spend 5 bucks for learning something new instead of wasting 30 for a book which supposedly has nothing new.
I’d like to get a copy of your e book just using my credit card. So how do I do that?
Neville. says: “I’d like to get a copy of your e book just using my credit card. So how do I do that?”
Click on the link:
http://transactions.digitaldeliveryapp.com/products/1998/purchase
And it will forward you to the PayPal site. There, click on the link that reads, “Don’t have a PayPal account?” You can then pay with a credit or debit card.
Thanks for your interest, Neville.
Sorry Bob I’m afraid I must be Dim, just can’t find the “don’t have a PayPal account” link there at all. Never had this problem before purchasing anything online.
Neville., sorry you’re having trouble with the purchase. When I click on this link…
http://transactions.digitaldeliveryapp.com/products/1998/purchase
…I first get this webpage…
…and that automatically leads to this webpage after a few seconds:
Isn’t that what you’re seeing?
Regards
No Bob I can’t procede to the second screen, I just get a message saying I can’t complete transaction. What is the problem?
BTW I’m just waiting I’m not trying to complete anything. I’m probably not the sharpest knife in the drawer but I’ve never had this problem before.
Neville: I’ve just sent an email to customer service at digitaldeliveryapp. I’ll let you know as soon as I hear back. It’s late here, so it’ll be in the morning.
Sorry again for the problem.
Regards
Neville: A question, while we wait for a response to my customer service request. Can you access the PayPal website?
http://www.paypal.com
Neville: The customer service people asked for a screen capture of the error screen. To do that, when you reach that error screen, press the “shift” and “print screen” keys. The “print screen” key should be in the upper right-hand corner of your keyboard. Assuming you have a PC, open MS Paint, and paste that screen capture there. Save the file as “screen cap” or something to that effect.
Then go to TinyPic:
http://tinypic.com/
Click the “browse” button and find that screen capture. Click “open” and then click “upload now.”
There’s a menu of four items. Copy and paste the fourth one “Direct Link for Layouts” in your reply to me.
Thanks for responding, Bob. I cannot seem to be able to open the download. The PayPal receipt is Receipt No: 2928-6655-7505-3447 (I am not a member and do not intend to be). I have downloaded the book twice but each time come up with a box demanding a password. It says:
‘The file has certain restricted features. Permissions password to remove restrictions.’
I have downloaded pdf files before with no difficulties. (I am in my 60s and and not as handy with computers as younger folk). Help would be appreciated.
Peridot: Check your email for a link to another copy. And please advise me here when you’ve downloaded it successfully.
Sorry for the problems.
Regards
Sorry for the delay Bob, but I’ve been away. Yes I can open the Paypal website.
I’m afraid I’m a bit like the other gent, I’m an older computer illiterate with few skills and yet to have my first computer lesson.
I bought a PC with windows XP operating system a few years ago mainly to use the internet as a giant library because I’m a voracious reader. Alas I’m hooked on the AGW debate and would love to get your book to have a lot of your research in the one file.
Anyhow don’t worry too much about it Bob you’ve got better things to do.
Neville: It’s not that I have better things to do. I’ve been trying to help. Please provide a screen capture of the error message you’re getting. The tech support people asked me to ask you for it. They’ve never heard of the problem you’re encountering and want to try to figure out what’s happening.
Okay, on second thought, let’s make it easy. Since you can access PayPal, leave me a $5.00US donation…
https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_donations&business=C6Y5VHZNFB9QL&lc=US&item_name=Bob%20Tisdale¤cy_code=USD&bn=PP%2dDonationsBF%3abtn_donateCC_LG%2egif%3aNonHosted
…and I’ll email you a direct link to the book.
Bob I’ve fixed the problem but by accident. I had my privacy setting in internet options set to “block all cookies.”
I was just checking my irrigation ( farmer in Australia) account and I have to change to a lower setting to do that.
After doing that I didn’t change my setting back to block all cookies. Then I decided to try to order the book and it worked.
So I’ve solved that problem, but now I’ve had my credit card order rejected. Plenty of money in the account so I haven’t a clue what the problem is now.
But I’ll keep trying Bob, I’m sorry for wasting your time.
Dear Bob,
I read with great interest your book. I learned a lot about how to work the IPCC. I really enjoyed animations relative to ENSO. They are really didactic.
By cons I am not quite agree with how to interpret the phenomena. I would rather offer a perspective more oriented oceanography as concerns ENSO and climate-related phenomena.
Indeed, the wavelet analysis of Sea Surface Height (SSH) and Surface Current Velocity (SCV), obtained from satellite altimetry, highlight westward Rossby waves and eastward Kelvin waves that propagate quasi-periodically along the equator (not only during outstanding ENSO events). Thus, they form Quasi-Stationary Waves (QSW). As shown in Fig. 6.8 from SST, one antinode stretches along the central-eastern Pacific and two antinodes nearly in opposite phase extend at both sides of the equator in the western Pacific (Fig. 6.17 shows heat content in the western and the eastern tropical Pacific are in opposite phase). The main node is the modulated current that merges with the South Equatorial Current (SEC), flowing mainly westward, and another node merges with the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC), flowing mainly eastward. The mean period of this fundamental QSW is 4 yrs.
The wavelet analysis of SSH and SCV also evidences gravity waves with antinodes both sides of the parallel 8°N, whose period is 1 yr. The node is a modulated current merging with the NECC and the SEC, so that the 4-yr period fundamental wave and the 1-yr period gravity wave share the same nodes (mainly the SEC along the equator).
For further explanation, I invite you to download my paper:
Pinault, J.-L., 2012b: Long wave resonance in tropical oceans and implications on climate – Part 2: the Pacific Ocean, http://dl.free.fr/getfile.pl?file=/7bWGfjAw
You can find the context of this work to the address http://dl.free.fr/rjaIXu8XM, and the links to articles. You have just to click on “Telecharger les fichiers” (download the files).
Thus, the equatorial Pacific behaves as a resonator (like the equatorial Atlantic and Indian Oceans). The coherency between each part of the resonator results from the topography of the surface of the tropical ocean crossed by QSWs and the gravity forces that ensue. The dimensions of the oscillator are comparable to the wavelength of the QSWs. The stratified ocean is traveled by a wake of long waves as a response to SSH anomalies under gravity near the equator. So, at the resonant frequency even small periodic driving forces can produce large amplitude oscillations, because the system stores gravitational energy that, in the tropical Pacific, follows from the see-saw of SSH anomalies between the western basin and the central-eastern basin. Warm water is transferred from the western Pacific to the central-eastern Pacific, and then translated westward to the exit of the resonator (to feed the western boundary currents), which stimulates or weakens alternatively upwelling off the South-American coasts. Gravitational energy is also stored in the 1-yr period quasi-stationary gravity wave that is coupled with the 4-and the 8-yr period waves (the 8-yr period QSW is a sub-harmonic of the 4-yr period fundamental wave), coupling of oscillators resulting from the pooling of the nodes, i.e. the westward modulated current that follows the equator as part of the SEC, and the eastward modulated current to the west of the NECC.
ENSO events become mature when the wavelet power of the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) reaches a maximum. At that time, warm water has been transferred to the central-eastern antinode of the 4-yr period fundamental wave (Figure 13). Thus, contrary to widespread belief, ENSO events are not responsible for the transfer of warm water from the western to the eastern antinodes, but the 4-yr period QSW triggers ENSO events as soon as warm water has been transferred to the central-eastern Pacific.
Due to evaporative processes, uplifting of the thermocline during ENSO events accompanying the westward recession of the central-eastern antinode leads to the break-up of the warm waters, and La Niña turns into a growing mode. In turn, easterlies sustain the fundamental wave during the westward propagation phase. As you explain, strengthening of trade winds during La Niña reduces the tropical Pacific cloud cover, which allows more downward shortwave radiation to warm the tropical Pacific. So, La Niña contributes to restore the western Pacific warm pool. In this way, the fundamental wave appears as self-sustained because the drivers are triggered during a critical phase of its evolution.
In contrast with the 1-yr period quasi-stationary gravity wave that is excited from seasonal trade wind stress, which constrains the period, the fundamental wave is self-sustained, which keeps free the period: the excitation from ENSO events occurs at the beginning of the west-ward propagation phase regardless of the timing. Nevertheless the mean period tends towards 4 yrs, resulting from both the dynamics of the upper-ocean, i.e. the velocity of equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves, and the coupling with the 1-yr period quasi-stationary gravity wave. This coupling imposes the mean period of the fundamental wave is an integer of years. More precisely, the mean period of sub-harmonics is necessarily an even number of years.
Let’s consider the histogram of ENSO events versus the timing that is expressed by the lag within the 4-yr cycles (1868-1871, 1872-1875,…, 2004-2007, 2008-2011). The histogram (Figure 15) is shaped by the constraint imposed by the coupling between the 8-, the 4- and the 1-yr period QSWs that share the same nodes west of the NECC and along the SEC in the band included between 0°N and 4°S. Three quarters of events occur so that -1.5<lag<-1 yr, -0.5<lag<0 yr, 0.5<lag<1 yr and 1.5<lag<2 yr. The most favorable period to the extension of the central-eastern antinode to the eastern boundary is when -0.5<lag<0 yr. Third of events occur when -0.5<lag<0 yr and 17% when 0.5<lag<1 yr. No event occurs when 0<lag<0.5 yr otherwise the geostrophic current velocities of the different components at the common node would be out of phase (which mainly concerns the 1- and 4-yr period QSWs). On the other hand, the number of events decreases drastically as the lag approaches 2 or -2 yrs disclosing the fundamental wave is damped.
The time evolution of SST anomalies in relation to the maturity of ENSO events leads to a classification of the events according as the lag is positive or negative.
ENSO events whose lag is negative are characterized by SST anomalies over the eastern tropical Pacific, followed by westward translation of the equatorial anomalies. This property persists regardless of the available energy (the amplitude of the event). Whether high or low SST anomalies are triggered off the coast of Peru and Chile where upwelling is related to the Humboldt Current, which suggests that, at the end of the eastward propagation phase, the development of a large warm pool is favored at the eastern Pacific.
A distinction is to be made according as the events whose lag is positive occur early or late within the 4-yr cycles. Events whose lags are higher than 1.4 yrs are characterized by the advection of warm water along a band straddling the equator, expanding from the eastern boundary to the west a short time before the event is mature. Early events (lag around 1 yr) are triggered from SST anomalies developing between latitudes 5°N and 20°N in the Central Pacific. The Central and the Eastern Pacific may be coupled: El Niño reaches its mature phase when SST anomalies join.
So, a very important index is the lag of the event within the 4-yr period intervals.
Another important aspect of your discussion consists in assuming what is commonly named a teleconnection to “explain” the impact of ENSO events around the globe. Again, I am opposed to this idea widely accepted.
Quasi-stationary Waves (QSWs) formed within the five major subtropical gyres appear to be resulting from a remote resonance induced from the tropical oceans (due to the alternation of warm and cooler waters transported to the critical latitude about 40°N or 40°S via the western boundary currents). The resonance of Rossby waves is closely related to the functioning of the subtropical gyres where the western boundary current becomes instable while it exceeds the critical latitude, which results from a positive feedback between the boundary current and QSWs. The modulated currents at the nodes prevent the poleward-flowing inertial boundary layers from retaining their potential vorticity. Westward baroclinic Rossby waves are formed, that merge with the eastward current; the resulting 1/2, 1, 4 and 8 yr period QSWs, which are in phase within the five subtropical gyres, propagate eastward at low speed, enhancing long-period sub-harmonics. They drift poleward except in the North Pacific subtropical gyre for which QSWs extend along the parallel 35°N.
QSWs at mid-latitudes (associated with the subtropical gyres) have a strong impact on climate variability. So, what is named “teleconnection”, a vague term suggesting atmosphere is responsible for the influence of ENSO events around the globe, would deserve to be replaced by “remote resonance” because the connection mainly has an oceanic origin.
At last, I would say some words about the long-term climate variability. Some aspects of long-term SST variability are known (the AMO=Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). Nevertheless, long-term oscillations are evidenced along the five sub-tropical gyres, exhibiting a large range of frequencies.
Three systems of QSWs are highlighted at mid-latitudes according as they are sustained by 1) trade winds and ENSO events, 2) solar irradiance or 3) Milankovitch cycles. The periods of sub-harmonics form a progression so that each term is an even multiple of the previous. Solar irradiance cycles produce 64-, 128-, 256-, 512, 1024- and 2048-yr sub-harmonics. Milankovitch cycles may produce two modes of excitation depending on whether tuning is achieved to the 25,000 or to the 41,000-yr cycles.
Inland surface temperature variability observed in the Northern Hemisphere over the last two millennia, including warming that occurs in the late second millennium and at the beginning of the third, is modeled with a lagged linear relationship that involves SST anomalies at western and eastern antinodes (Pinault, J.-L., 2012e: Long oceanic wave resonance at midlatitudes – Part 2: implications on climate variability and global warming, http://dl.free.fr/getfile.pl?file=/cPEnHiO6, Figure 12). The outstanding condition that has never occurred during the Holocene results from the resonance in phase of the 128, 256, 512 and 1024-yr sub-harmonics. It is attributed to the intensity of the Modern Maximum following the sequence of the Maunder minima.
Thus, IPCC should work on the climate over the last two millennia (not only from 1901 the interval is too short to understand how important is the influence of solar irradiance).
Furthermore, melting the polar ice pack reveals the imprint of antinodes of long-period QSWs.
Forecasting the inland surface temperature over the next 50 years shows that a cooling phase will follow global warming, not including the possible contribution of greenhouse gas emissions whose impact on climate is non-resonant.
But we can hope that the mainstream claiming anthropogenic global warming will reverse before 50 years, because we might be tired by then!
Best regards,
Jean-Louis
Pingback: Bob Tisdale’s Book “If the IPCC was Selling Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop Their Deceptive Ads?” | Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr.
I bought your book because I heard you need beer money. Say, what happens when a stratospheric volcanic eruption occurs during a La Niña when the pool thingy is recharging? And would it have to be a equatorial eruption to interfere with the recharge? And finally, is there a point when you can say we are overdue for a climate changing volcanic eruption? Thanks in advance.
Mike Mangan: Off equatorial volcanic eruptions like El Chichon (17N latitude) would have impacted the recharge after the 1982/83 El Nino. The KNMI Climate Explorer has the GACP aerosol optical depth data and it shows a significant impact for the coordinates of the Pacific Warm Pool (20S-20N, 120E-180)…
The tropical Pacific aerosol optical depth curve is similar.
The 1983/84/85 La Nina did not recharge the tropical Pacific OHC fully after the 1982/83 El Nino. Refer to Figure 6-17 in the book. One might assume El Chichon had some influence, but then again, the 3-year La Nina after the 1997/98 El Nino didn’t fully recharge the tropical Pacific OHC and there wasn’t a volcano at that time.
And with respect to your last question, as far as I know, volcanic eruptions don’t keep to a schedule.
Regards
Pingback: PRELIMINARY February 2012 SST Anomaly Update | Bob Tisdale – Climate Observations
New Judith Curry Interview Just Published: The IPCC May Have Outlived its Usefulness
Dear Bob,
I just wanted to send you a quick mail to let you know that we have conducted a very interesting interview with the well known climatologist Judith Curry.
It’s a very balanced interview and I thought you and your readers may be interested in reading about Judith’s concerns for climate science, how climate change is affecting the planet, reasons for the increase in scepticism and why climate scientists have lost touch with the public.
You can read the full interview at: http://oilprice.com/The-Environment/Global-Warming/The-IPCC-May-Have-Outlived-its-Usefulness-An-Interview-with-Judith-Curry.html
Some of the questions we asked Judith are:
Q. You have said in the past that you were troubled by the lack of cooperation between organizations studying climate change, and that you want to see more transparency with the data collected. How do you suggest we encourage/force transparency and collaboration?
Q. Do you feel climatologists should be putting more effort into determining the effect of the sun on our climate? As the IPCC primarily focuses on CO2 as the cause of climate change – Is the importance of CO2 overestimated and the importance of the sun is underestimated?
Q. What are your views on the idea that CO2 may not be a significant contributor to climate change?
The full interview is at: http://oilprice.com/The-Environment/Global-Warming/The-IPCC-May-Have-Outlived-its-Usefulness-An-Interview-with-Judith-Curry.html
I hope you find the interview interesting.
Best regards,
James Stafford
Why is the IPCC wrong?
There are two broad classes of radiation from the atmosphere. ..
(1) That which results from spontaneous emission after a molecule has ended up in a warmer (maybe excited) state due to radiative absorption or from molecular collision. Any of this radiation which heads to warmer targets (lower atmosphere or surface) will become the first half of a standing wave and the second half comes back to it from the warmer target it hit.
(2) That which emanates from the surface. This heads into the atmosphere and strikes cooler targets at various altitudes. Some of its energy thermalizes, and some just forms the first half of a standing wave which comes back to it. The cooler the target was, the more it will be warmed and the less will be the effect of the standing wave on the rate of cooling of the surface. So molecules closer to the surface have more effect on the rate of cooling, but each CO2 molecule is no more effective than each water vapour molecule.
In contrast, the IPCC models assume CO2 sends far more photons back per molecule than water, so they claim the overall effect of only about 4% as much CO2 as WV is that each contributes similar amounts in total. But the concept of standing waves puts each molecule on an equal footing, so CO2 has nowhere near the effect of WV.
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Hi Bob,
I just wanted to say thanks. I purchased and downloaded some time ago after seeing the original post at WUWT. I’m enjoying it as I find the time to slowly read it, along with a very thick stack of engineering texts I have to plough through.
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Bob Tisdale,
As I don’t have your email I am contacting you here .
I bought your book, ‘Who Turned on the Heat, ‘ via a relative’s account,
Transaction P A # 0000303020 and found it very informative. I comment
on Judith Curry and now have my own blog, ‘beththeserf’ in which I feature
different posters such as Tony Brown, ‘climate history,’ and Peter Lang,
‘costs of renewable energy.’ I have prepared a two page overview of your
book which i would like to post in my next edition of Serf Under_ground
Journal if you have no objection. I would be happy to email the overview to
you if you wish.
Beth Cooper.
Beth Cooper: I look forward to reading your overview. Please send me a link when your post it.
Regards
Thank you Bob, will do.
Beth the serf.
Bob Tisdale,
Hope it reads alright, I have posted at Judith Curry, ‘97% consensus
Part11.’ 29/07 @9.23pm,
http://beththeserf.wordpress.com/
Regards,
Beth the serf.
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