PRELIMINARY August 2012 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Update

STANDARD OPENING PARAGRAPH

The August 2012 Reynolds OI.v2 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data through the NOAA NOMADS website won’t be official until Monday, August 10th. Refer to the schedule on the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Frequently Asked Questions webpage. The following are the preliminary Global and NINO3.4 SST anomalies for August 2012 that the NOMADS website prepares based on incomplete data for the month. I’ve also included the weekly data through the week centered on August 29, 2012, but I’ve shortened the span of the weekly data, starting it in January 2004, so that the variations can be seen.

PRELIMINARY MONTHLY DATA

NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies are a commonly used index for the strength, frequency, and duration of El Niño and La Niña events. Based on the preliminary data, August 2012 NINO3.4 SST anomalies are at +0.840 deg C well above the +0.5 deg C threshold of “official” El Niño conditions.

Monthly NINO3.4 SST Anomalies

######################

The preliminary global SST anomalies warmed almost 0.04 deg C in the last month in response to the developing El Niño. They’re presently at +0.272 deg C.

Monthly Global SST Anomalies

######################

WEEKLY DATA

Weekly NINO3.4 region (5S-5N, 170W-120W) sea surface temperature anomalies for the week centered on August 29, 2012 are just above the +1.0 deg C threshold of a moderate El Niño. They were at +1.01 deg C.

Weekly NINO3.4 SST Anomalies

######################

Weekly Global SST Anomalies are continuing to wiggle their way warmer, a rise for a couple of weeks, followed by a drop the next, with the rises exceeding the drops. They are presently at +0.305 deg C. Will they peak early this year as they did in response to the 2006/07 El Niño or will their maximum lag the normal seasonal December ENSO peak?

Weekly Global SST Anomalies

######################

The weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies for 2012 are compared to those of the El Niño events since 1982 that started from La Niña conditions. The evolution of the event this year still doesn’t look extraordinary. NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies are about the same level they were at during the development of the 2009/10 El Niño.

NINO3.4 Evolution Comparison

######################

NINO1+2 region (10S-0, 90W-80W) sea surface temperatures are continuing their cooling. They had started out strong this year, leading some to believe this year’s El Niño would be an East Pacific event. It doesn’t look like they’re going to turn around.

NINO1+2 Evolution Comparison

######################

INTERESTED IN LEARNING MORE ABOUT THE EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA?

I’ve recently published my e-book (pdf) about the phenomena called El Niño and La Niña. It’s titled Who Turned on the Heat? with the subtitle The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Niño Southern Oscillation. It is intended for persons (with or without technical backgrounds) interested in learning about El Niño and La Niña events and in understanding the natural causes of the warming of our global oceans for the past 30 years. Because land surface air temperatures simply exaggerate the natural warming of the global oceans over annual and multidecadal time periods, the vast majority of the warming taking place on land is natural as well. The book is the product of years of research of the satellite-era sea surface temperature data that’s available to the public via the internet. It presents how the data accounts for its warming—and there are no indications the warming was caused by manmade greenhouse gases. None at all.

Who Turned on the Heat? was introduced in the blog post Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about El Niño and La Niña… …Well Just about Everything. The  Updated Free Preview (typos corrected) includes the Table of Contents; the Introduction; the beginning of Section 1, with the cartoon-like illustrations; the discussion About the Cover; and the Closing.

Please click here to buy a copy. (Paypal or Credit/Debit Card). It’s only US$8.00.

You’re probably asking yourself why you should spend $8.00 for a book written by an independent climate researcher. There aren’t many independent researchers investigating El Niño-Southern Oscillation or its long-term impacts on global surface temperatures. In fact, if you were to perform a Google image search of NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies, the vast majority of the graphs and images are from my blog posts. Try it. Cut and paste NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies into Google. Click over to images and start counting the number of times you see Bob Tisdale.

By independent I mean I am not employed in a research or academic position; I’m not obligated to publish results that encourage future funding for my research—that is, my research is not agenda-driven. I’m a retiree, a pensioner. The only funding I receive is from book sales and donations at my blog. Also, I’m independent inasmuch as I’m not tied to consensus opinions so that my findings will pass through the gauntlet of peer-review gatekeepers. Truth be told, it’s unlikely the results of my research would pass through that gauntlet because the satellite-era sea surface temperature data contradicts the tenets of the consensus.

SOURCES

The Sea Surface Temperature anomaly data used in this post is available through the NOAA NOMADS website:

http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh

or:

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?lite=