Judith, thanks for making this a separate thread. It’s an extremely important topic. The Gavins of this world will fight you tooth and nail on this, because they have tuned their models to a naturally occurring upswing in the surface temperatures–regardless of whether that upswing was caused by ENSO, the AMO, or other factors. Therefore, the Gavins of the world have likely doubled the expected warming, climate sensitivity, etc.
by Judith Curry
Pick one:
a) Warming since 1950 is predominantly (more than 50%) caused by humans.
b) Warming since 1950 is predominantly caused by natural processes.
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Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations 
So, I interpret this as scything that the IPCC’s best estimate is
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Thanks for the tip, Bob.
Yes, Curry steps into dangerous territory and finds an inconvenient fact: The IPCC’s GCM models were conceived wrongly.
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