Last year, we discussed in a number of posts how the claims of record high global surface temperatures were due primarily to the unusual, naturally occurring warming event in the eastern extratropical North Pacific…known as “The Blob”. See the list of posts about The Blob and its impacts at the end of this post.
This year, in addition to The Blob (which still exists), there is an El Niño developing in the eastern tropical Pacific. This has driven global surface temperatures even higher…once again naturally. As a result, it seems that NOAA has proclaimed “theee warmest ever [insert month name here]” each time they update their monthly State of the Climate Report.
Next year, can we expect a repeat of the monthly “warmest ever” claims?
Global surface and lower troposphere temperatures will often peak during the decay year of a strong El Niño, not the evolution year. And 2015 is the evolution year of the 2015/16 El Niño. This lagged effect is not always the case, though. Sometimes, but as an exception, they can peak during the evolution year.
This on-and-off (mostly on) lagged effect is easy to see if we detrend the global surface temperature (GISS land-ocean temperature index) and lower troposphere temperature (UAH TLT, version 6) data and compare them to an (arbitrarily scaled) ENSO index. I’m using NINO3.4 region sea surface temperature anomalies as the ENSO index. The NINO3.4 data typically peak during the evolution year of the El Niño. The obvious exception is the multiyear 1986/87/88 El Niño, when the NINO3.4 region temperature anomalies peaked during the second year.
Update: I forgot to mention that I’ve included lower troposphere temperature data as a reference.
Figure 1
And for your information, Figure 2 includes the annual GISS land ocean temperature index and UAH lower troposphere temperature anomalies, with the year-to-date (January to August) average highlighted with a red horizontal line.
Figure 2
The big question mark continues to be The Blob. IF (big if) The Blob disappears after the 2015/16 El Niño, that drop in temperature in the eastern extratropical North Pacific SHOULD (big SHOULD) offset some of the typical lagged effects of the El Niño. Personally, I wouldn’t bet on a complete departure of The Blob.
POSTS ABOUT THE BLOB
- The Hotspot in the North Pacific (February 2014)
- On The Recent Record-High Global Sea Surface Temperatures – The Wheres and Whys (August 2014)
- Axel Timmermann and Kevin Trenberth Highlight the Importance of Natural Variability in Global Warming… (November 2014)
- Researchers Find Northeast Pacific Surface Warming (1900-2012) Caused By Changes in Atmospheric Circulation, NOT Manmade Forcings (December 2014)
- Did ENSO and the “Monster” Kelvin Wave Contribute to the Record High Global Sea Surface Temperatures in 2014? (December 2014)
- Alarmists Bizarrely Claim “Just what AGW predicts” about the Record High Global Sea Surface Temperatures in 2014 (January 2015)
- North Pacific Update: The Blob’s Strengthening Suggests It’s Not Ready to Depart (April 2015)
And the most recent update (August 12, 2015) on The Blob is here.
Bob Tisdale - Climate Observations 
The Warmist only weapon: Stefan Boltzmann’s crappy experiment 160y ago: heating CO2 in a tube is not same as warmed CO2 in the atmosphere- which goes instantly up, when warmed, to cool down! Even the cavemen knew that; reason they invented the chimney!!! In the tube/ sealed chamber, warmed CO2 cannot expend, but keeps warming up when heated, AND CREATING IT’S OWN PRESSURE – on the other hand: in the air, as soon as CO2 warms up-> INSTANTLY goes UP, where is thinner air and much colder, to release the heat!!! Comparing CO2 warming in the sealed tube AND: free CO2 in the air, is same as comparing a bird on the branch of the tree, with a bird in the oven. That’s what the 30000 criminally oriented ‘’questionable scientist in what fields’’ are trying to con the public, for fleecing the Urban Sheep! And for Marxist /Bolsheviks model oppression! #2: Methane & carbon dioxide (CO2&CH4) are the new western Marxist Hammer and Sickle.
Bob, could you please say why, “I wouldn’t bet on a complete departure of The Blob.” And also whether and when you expect a (strong) La Nina.
Hi Bill. The Blob has persisted long enough that it has impacted the surface temperatures of the entire eastern North Pacific. The Blob also caused warming to depths of 300 meters in its location.
While I wouldn’t bet on its departure, I’m hoping it does.
Cheers.
“The data doesn’t matter. We’re not basing our recommendations on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models.”
~ Prof. Chris Folland ~ (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research)
The models say it will be warmer, so of course the climate “scientists” will claim it’s warmer no matter what the thermometers say.
I mean, who would bother with the reading of a $10 thermometer when you have a $100,000,000 supercomputer
gameclimate model to play with?Thanks, catweazle666.
Hello Bob – I was wondering what effect the current very active hurricanes (across the water anyhow) are likely to have on the El Nino. As they are appearing on the very warm EL Nino surface waters, are the effects discernable or only local in nature
Hi mwh. First, you didn’t need to clarify your question with “across the water anyhow” because hurricanes form over water…they need an ocean to form. [The other possibility was that you were discussing the non-landfalling hurricanes. In that case, sorry for the correction.]
I assume you’re discussing hurricanes in the eastern tropical North Pacific. I do not know of a specific paper that would answer your question. I can point you to a webpage, however, that discusses how hurricanes are likely to occur a little more often but be much more intense in the eastern tropical North Pacific during El Nino events:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/enso_impacts.htm
Cheers
Hi Bob – I was just referring to ‘Patricia’ that fizzled out remarkably quickly over land. And yes the hurricanes particularly east of Hawaii.
I have read a good deal of the information that you post on WUWT and along with the posts by Willis on the regulating effects of tropical rainstorms, I was just interested to know if the energy uptake by a hurricane has a discernable effect on the stored energy within El Nino warm waters and whether this energy release can have an effect on the speed of collapse of an El Nino. My personal opinion, for what its worth, is that this EL Nino doesnt have the legs of the 1998 event, but the violence of these storms has me wondering……thanks for answering anyhow – appreciated – wont answer now as I am on the web page you suggested!
Thanks – I’ve now had a look at that and looked at the current jeststream animation (University of Washington hindcast and forecast). It would seem that the Jetstream was unaffected by Patricia only a slight deviation Southwards occurred in that area over 22 – 24 Oct and the jetstream was fairly smooth and regular. So it would seem I am answering my own question in some ways that although powerful a hurricanes affect on Enso and the Jetstream itself is limited. Thanks for the ref though. I presume however that its current position at 30 – 40 degrees of latitude would be further south than normal, and that the forecast severe loops over the next few days will make for intersesting weather on the coastline further North. Many thanks – Mark
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